久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
China / Cover Story

Tougher year looms in 2012

By Xin Zhiming (China Daily) Updated: 2011-12-06 07:09

6. Will the yuan appreciate further or depreciate?

Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd

Although in recent months the trade surplus of China has declined dramatically and capital outflows have occurred, we predict in 2012 the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will continue to appreciate moderately.

The Chinese government may still hesitate to revalue the yuan faster and more dramatically because it worries that it may further shock the weak exports and pose a negative impact on asset prices as well as financial industries. However, to avoid a trade war and facilitate economic restructuring, we think the authorities would prefer the yuan to appreciate 3 to 5 percent year-on-year in 2012.

And the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will rise to 6.25 by the end of this year, before it increases to 6 by the end of 2012. After that, the currency rate between the yuan and the dollar is likely to remain stable.

Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank

The capital outflows in October demonstrated that international investors are increasingly worried about the very likely slowdown of China's economic growth over the next year. And they are very concerned about the risks from the loans made to local governments through financial vehicles, and the gloomy capital market.

The most likely destination of these capital outflows is the United States because the dollar is stronger than the euro.

Another factor attributable to a possible depreciation of the yuan lies in the shrinking trade surplus. As the trade surplus continues to narrow in 2012, the appreciation of the yuan will decelerate against the dollar and there will even be a depreciation in the future as a trade deficit develops.

7. Will the Chinese stock market continue to see volatility?

Frank Gong, vice chairman of China Investment Banking at JP Morgan Chase & Co

The valuations of the A-share market have fallen so low that the systemic risk in China's economy may have already been factored into current market prices.

While inflationary pressure will continue to ease, the policymakers are likely to further loosen credit tightening. China could also benefit from lower commodities prices that were pushed down by the poor prospects for the world's economy.

It seems that the most painful period for investors has passed. If the reserve requirement ratio is lowered by the central bank to 18 percent, it may help improve liquidity and trigger a bull run in the market that could last for several years.

Ye Tan, financial commentator and professor at Fudan University

The loosening of China's monetary policy may help boost market sentiment in the short term and improve liquidity in the market. But it cannot help improve corporate earnings.

The volatility in the stock market reflects the fact that investors' confidence remains fragile and the rally triggered by the monetary loosening is unlikely to last long.

A long-term bull run in the market is built on the expectation of good corporate profits and investment returns. What the global economy needs is not money but new growth points. Given investors' clear expectations of poor earnings results of listed companies in the fourth quarter, any rally in the market will likely be short-lived.

8. Will China be hit by a backlash in its energy saving and emission reducing efforts?

He Jiankun, director of the Institute of Low Carbon Economy, Tsinghua University

The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down, but mainly as a result of macro-control measures. That is a good thing for energy conservation and greenhouse gas emissions.

China set a lower annual economic growth rate at about 7 percent for 2011 to 2015, showing the country's resolution in transforming its economic structure. As a result, energy-guzzling and high-polluting industries will be further controlled.

As the measures that the government introduced to target inflation took effect, the cooling property market also affected the demand for steel, cement and other building materials. The momentum is expected to be sustained. It is also good for energy saving and emission reduction.

Slower growth would be better for China's longer-term sustainable growth prospects and realizing the country's targets for conserving energy and reducing emissions.

China intends to cut energy intensity - energy consumption per unit of GDP - by 16 percent from 2011 to 2015, which means the nation need to achieve an average cut of about 3.2 percent during the next five years.

However, in the first three quarters of the opening year of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), energy intensity fell just 1.6 percent. Tougher measures are expected to be adopted in 2012 to achieve the country's target in energy-saving and emission-reduction.

Christoph Frei, secretary general of the World Energy Council

China is in a new arms race. We have already seen areas of the country affected by brown-outs as the infrastructure developments struggle to keep pace with increased demand.

Only vision-led and coherent energy policies that address the "energy trilemma" will gain public acceptance and investors' trust in delivering a sustainable energy future. This is particularly true in the case of energy efficiency, which is not the "low-hanging fruit" that many commentators have suggested.

China has made significant headway in delivering energy-efficiency programs. The 1,000 Enterprise Program is aimed at reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20 percent over five years. Our findings suggest that this program has contributed to a considerable reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the target enterprises.

As China continues its inexorable growth, becoming the world's No 1 energy consumer, the challenge is to build on these successes and balance the need for energy security and social equity. However, environmental-impact mitigation remains the country's greatest challenge, especially in the context of increased urbanization, with up to 50 megacities projected by 2050.

Potential stresses in the energy-water nexus will need to be carefully monitored. Car ownership is also growing at a rate of 12 percent a year and our transport scenarios will show that clear policies are essential to limit the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

9. Will China see a sharp decrease in foreign direct investment?

Jack Perkowski, founder of JFP Holdings

China will remain a magnet for foreign direct investment in 2012. While all major international companies are already here, most are planning to increase their investments in the country. Moreover, we are now seeing many small and medium-sized companies coming to China for the first time.

For many companies, China's intellectual property rights (IPR) is their biggest concern. However, if these companies truly have a product that is needed in China and they don't manufacture it here it because of the IPR issue, some company in China will eventually figure out how to make it and they will have new competitors anyway.

My advice is to manufacture the product in China so that these companies can meet the competition head-on and be most competitive.

One reason that some international companies feel business is getting more difficult in China is because local companies are becoming stronger and gaining market share month to month.

While many companies may not be as enthusiastic about manufacturing products in China and shipping them back to the United States or Europe because costs in China are going up and the yuan is appreciating against the dollar, they will still want to produce in China in order to gain access to the market.

Li Xiaogang, director of the Foreign Investment Research Center at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences

A new frontier area for attracting investment in 2012 will be the service industry. The Ministry of Commerce and 33 other departments have just released the outline for the service trade development plan during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.

The volume of service import and export will hit $600 billion over the next five years with an annual growth of more than 11 percent.

For companies with a competitive edge in the service industry, the years ahead will be a golden chance to invest in industries such as healthcare and design as service demand from the domestic market surges. The service industry accounts for only about 40 percent of China's GDP.

Inflows of investment from Europe and the United States slipped in China in 2011, mainly due to their grim economic prospects. Once their crises ease, China will be an attractive destination for direct foreign investment from Europe and the US.

More than 80 percent of foreign companies investing in China prefer to build wholly-owned companies in the country now that China has opened up so much and has enormous growth potential. They want to enjoy all the benefits.

Foreign-invested companies in China are gradually shifting their focus to China's domestic market, which has put greater pressure on China's legal environment. Improvements to the legislative system will be crucial for China to continue to attract foreign investment in the coming years.

10. Will China's local government debt see default on a large scale in 2012?

Jia Kang, director of the Ministry of Finance's research institute for fiscal science

Overall fiscal risks are under control because the authorities have been given a clear picture of the debt scale and are thus more sure about tackling the major risks within it. The 4 trillion yuan ($627 billion) stimulus package in late 2008 has often been criticized for causing the problem, but we should not forget that every penny goes to a worthy cause, such as reconstruction after the Wenchuan earthquake and improvements to Beijing's traffic system.

There are no signs yet of bad debts on a threatening scale. Although 20 percent of local governments at municipal level have a debt ratio of more than 100 percent, it does not necessarily mean they will default given that most of them have strong growth rates.

Even if a default is inevitable, local officials will try every means to fill the hole so as not to affect their track record. For undeveloped areas, the central government will probably come to the rescue.

Charlene Chu, head of China Financial Institutions, Fitch Ratings

The massive influx of liquidity since the crisis has helped corporations meet obligations on previous debt. However, a loose credit policy can't remain in place forever, particularly in an environment of high inflation.

Credit risk has risen from an overextension of loans to local governments and property firms, both of which have questionable medium-term repayment capacity. Off-balance-sheet activity has also grown, adding fire to the credit boom and providing banks with new channels to window-dress financials.

If local governments were to encounter repayment issues, this could extend beyond their obligations to banks to their obligations to contractors and subcontractors of projects etc. In this regard, the entire transport and infrastructure portfolio could be affected.

Previous Page 1 2 3 Next Page

Highlights
Hot Topics
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    视频一区视频二区中文| 另类综合日韩欧美亚洲| 欧美性极品少妇| 日韩主播视频在线| 精品国精品国产| 国产成人亚洲综合a∨婷婷| 国产精品妹子av| 色丁香久综合在线久综合在线观看| 一区二区三区日韩欧美精品| 欧美电影在哪看比较好| 国产真实乱偷精品视频免| 国产精品色哟哟网站| 在线观看视频一区二区欧美日韩| 图片区日韩欧美亚洲| 久久久久久久久久久久电影| 91网站视频在线观看| 午夜精品福利久久久| 久久青草欧美一区二区三区| 91亚洲精品久久久蜜桃网站| 日本欧美韩国一区三区| 国产日韩综合av| 欧美在线影院一区二区| 伦理电影国产精品| 自拍偷拍国产亚洲| 欧美一级欧美三级| 国产成人午夜高潮毛片| 亚洲综合久久久久| 精品99一区二区三区| 色一区在线观看| 捆绑调教一区二区三区| 亚洲色图一区二区| 精品毛片乱码1区2区3区| 91麻豆精东视频| 韩国精品免费视频| 亚洲自拍偷拍av| 久久久久久久综合色一本| 色天使久久综合网天天| 国内精品伊人久久久久av影院| 亚洲欧美日韩在线| 久久综合色鬼综合色| 欧美三级乱人伦电影| 国产麻豆9l精品三级站| 亚洲成人一区二区| 国产精品你懂的在线欣赏| 日韩一区二区免费高清| 91免费版pro下载短视频| 精品一区二区在线播放| 一区二区在线观看视频在线观看| 久久综合久久综合亚洲| 欧美美女bb生活片| 91片在线免费观看| 激情图片小说一区| 日韩激情视频在线观看| 亚洲精品老司机| 国产女主播一区| 精品美女一区二区| 欧美美女网站色| 日本国产一区二区| 国产98色在线|日韩| 另类的小说在线视频另类成人小视频在线| 曰韩精品一区二区| 国产欧美日韩精品a在线观看| 日韩欧美在线一区二区三区| 在线亚洲高清视频| www.在线成人| 国产精品一区二区黑丝| 日产精品久久久久久久性色| 一区二区三区精品| 日韩一区欧美一区| 国产欧美va欧美不卡在线| 精品国产一区二区三区四区四 | 欧美激情综合五月色丁香小说| 51午夜精品国产| 欧美中文字幕不卡| 色哟哟亚洲精品| 91在线视频官网| fc2成人免费人成在线观看播放| 国产一区二区三区免费看| 免费在线一区观看| 日产精品久久久久久久性色| 性欧美大战久久久久久久久| 一区二区三区四区不卡视频| 亚洲天堂av一区| 国产精品不卡一区| 国产精品灌醉下药二区| 中文在线资源观看网站视频免费不卡| 久久久久国产精品免费免费搜索| 日韩三级高清在线| 欧美一区二区三区四区在线观看 | 亚洲尤物在线视频观看| 亚洲理论在线观看| 亚洲欧美另类在线| 亚洲女同ⅹxx女同tv| 亚洲三级小视频| 亚洲柠檬福利资源导航| 亚洲欧洲中文日韩久久av乱码| 亚洲视频中文字幕| 亚洲乱码精品一二三四区日韩在线 | 亚洲一二三级电影| 亚洲一区二区美女| 午夜精品福利视频网站| 日一区二区三区| 日韩黄色免费电影| 理论电影国产精品| 国产一二三精品| 国产成人亚洲精品狼色在线| 丁香天五香天堂综合| 成人黄色av电影| 91麻豆免费看片| 欧美网站一区二区| 666欧美在线视频| 日韩三级免费观看| 久久九九影视网| 国产精品久久久久久久久久免费看| **性色生活片久久毛片| 一区二区三区蜜桃网| 亚洲成av人片一区二区三区| 日日欢夜夜爽一区| 久国产精品韩国三级视频| 国产在线精品一区在线观看麻豆| 国产成人精品网址| voyeur盗摄精品| 欧美中文字幕一区| 欧美一区二区三区在线观看视频| 精品国产欧美一区二区| 国产精品女主播在线观看| 亚洲精品成人在线| 天堂成人国产精品一区| 激情图片小说一区| 99精品国产热久久91蜜凸| 欧美怡红院视频| 欧美一个色资源| 久久九九国产精品| 亚洲女同女同女同女同女同69| 亚洲成人免费影院| 国内一区二区在线| 99re成人精品视频| 欧美电影在线免费观看| 国产亚洲制服色| 亚洲与欧洲av电影| 久久超碰97人人做人人爱| 成人午夜激情在线| 欧美亚洲一区三区| 精品福利一二区| 亚洲欧美日韩国产综合| 奇米四色…亚洲| 成人黄色小视频在线观看| 欧美日韩精品一二三区| 久久精品欧美一区二区三区麻豆| 亚洲男女一区二区三区| 麻豆精品视频在线| 99久久精品一区| 91精品国产欧美日韩| 中文字幕欧美国产| 视频一区中文字幕国产| 成人听书哪个软件好| 欧美老女人第四色| 国产精品免费视频网站| 日韩av中文在线观看| 99视频精品免费视频| 欧美一级午夜免费电影| 亚洲视频一区在线观看| 精品系列免费在线观看| 色偷偷一区二区三区| 精品国产自在久精品国产| 一区二区不卡在线播放| 国产最新精品精品你懂的| 欧美亚洲国产一区二区三区va | 欧美日韩一区二区欧美激情| 久久久一区二区三区捆绑**| 午夜精品久久久久久久久| 成人18精品视频| 日韩欧美专区在线| 亚洲综合偷拍欧美一区色| 国产大陆a不卡| 欧美一区二区在线播放| 亚洲欧美日韩国产成人精品影院 | 91麻豆精品国产91久久久资源速度| 国产拍欧美日韩视频二区| 日本va欧美va精品发布| 色偷偷久久一区二区三区| 国产无人区一区二区三区| 日本欧美一区二区| 欧美性猛片aaaaaaa做受| 国产精品美女久久久久aⅴ| 精品一区二区在线免费观看| 欧美日韩aaaaaa| 伊人色综合久久天天人手人婷| 国产成人精品一区二区三区网站观看| 欧美精品1区2区| 亚洲自拍偷拍九九九| 91在线视频免费观看| 国产欧美一区二区精品忘忧草| 蜜臀av性久久久久av蜜臀妖精 | 精品国产一区久久| 午夜久久久久久电影| 色av成人天堂桃色av| 国产精品毛片久久久久久久| 激情综合五月天| 欧美一区二区成人|