Pandemic deals hardest blow to the world's poor

A friend's father in Milan is slowly recovering from COVID-19.Another friend, a doctor in New Delhi, is working among such patients. A neighbor in Beijing who teaches in a school has not left the building in two months out of abundant caution.

The new coronavirus disease had killed 206,542 people and sickened more than 2.9 million globally by early Monday.

While people from different walks of life have been affected by the pandemic, the poor are being hit the hardest, and not just in countries where public health infrastructure is traditionally weak.

The International Monetary Fund has warned of a recession unseen in decades.

More than 821 million people regularly go to bed hungry, according to the World Food Program. "The depth and breadth of hunger will increase worldwide."

About 10 percent of the world's population live on less than $1.90 a day. The World Bank estimates 40 million to 60 million people will fall into extreme poverty this year as a result of COVID-19, "depending on the magnitude of the economic shock".

The crisis has also posed a challenge for China that is looking to end extreme poverty this year. China's GDP fell by 6.8 percent in the first quarter. Some 5.51 million people were living in extreme poverty in the country in 2019, according to official data.

The impact of COVID-19 on food security could be significant in Africa and parts of the Middle East that have witnessed conflict, according to research.

It remains unclear when most countries will be able to fully resume economic activity. The debate is one of priority－significantly mitigating the threat of the virus or getting people back to work, restarting businesses and lifting stay-at-home orders.

In Asia and Africa, the informal economy supports the livelihood of millions－for instance, 90 percent of workers in Mozambique and 80 percent in Afghanistan. With lockdowns in place, daily-wage earners are likely to get restless, as witnessed in India. Some 45 percent of all workers are informally employed in Bolivia. The situation is prompting governments to offer "subsidy lifelines".

The United States Senate cleared a $484 billion support package, mostly for small businesses. More than 26 million people have filed unemployment claims there.

Unemployment figures for many other countries aren't available yet.

"Unlike in the West, where the focus is on a broad economic stimulus, the immediate focus in Africa is on disaster relief," wrote Addisu Lashitew, a fellow at the Brookings think tank.

In high-to-middle income countries, online learning is being provided to the millions of children currently out of school. But that isn't the case in low-income countries, mainly because of limited internet. Half of the world's children live in poverty, research shows. The shutting of schools means reduced nutrition for poor children, with in-school meals missing.

As countries try to cope with the pandemic, billions of people teetering on the brink of economic collapse are being threatened by a looming debt crisis, a UN report said.

Improving food security, preventing debt build up, protecting productive assets, relocating workers across sectors are among its policy suggestions to countries.

The economic impact will vary across income groups globally, with direct or indirect implications for labor－disease treatment, wage cuts, layoffs, furloughs, fewer working hours and restrictions on movement for migrant workers, especially in agriculture.

International, domestic or public remittances are also expected to fall in places such as Sri Lanka, Moldova, Bangladesh and Jordon.

In low-income countries, small-scale low-productivity farming will be affected, as will tourism, hospitality and retail in middle-income countries.

We noticed how public health systems were overwhelmed first in Central China's Hubei province, then in Italy, Spain, France, the US and Britain. Poorer countries have far fewer hospital beds.

The world was inequitable before COVID-19 struck. The pandemic will exacerbate disparities.