Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
    Business
    Home / Business / Policies

    Analysts stay upbeat on long-term economic prospects

    By LI XIANG and ZHOU LANXU | China Daily | Updated: 2021-08-13 07:10
    Share
    Share - WeChat
    A view of the skyscrapers in Beijing's CBD area on May 18. [Photo by Sheng Peng/For China Daily]

    The new wave of COVID-19 infections and tightened restrictions have clouded China's economic outlook, prompting more economists to revise down their short-term growth forecasts for the world's second-largest economy.

    But most analysts expect China's growth momentum to pick up again in the fourth quarter and remain upbeat about the longer-term prospects as the economic recovery will benefit from stronger policy support.

    Meanwhile, economists called for more policy attention to consumer confidence, the service sector and the job market, which remained fragile and have not fully recovered to their pre-COVID levels.

    US bank Goldman Sachs has cut its quarterly growth forecast for China to 2.3 percent in the third quarter from its earlier prediction of 5.8 percent and cut its full-year projection to 8.3 percent from 8.6 percent. JP Morgan also reduced its forecast for China's year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter to 6.7 percent from 7.4 percent and reduced its full-year projection to 8.9 percent from 9.1 percent.

    Despite the downgrades, most economists say that China is capable of maintaining an annual growth rate of above 8 percent this year, higher than the government's annual target of more than 6 percent. 

    Economists said the impact of the COVID resurgence could be limited if swift government action brings it under control in a short period of time and greater monetary and fiscal support could effectively ease the rising growth pressure.

    Shao Yu, chief economist at Shanghai-listed Orient Securities, said that the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 resurgence should be within the expectations of Chinese policymakers or at a tolerable level, and they are likely to further fine-tune macro policies to lend more support to the economy, although drastic easing is unlikely.

    The local outbreaks may suppress economic growth by bringing offline service activities to a transitory standstill in the affected areas, but the impact will remain limited if the resurgence can be brought under control this month and policy support is stepped up to offset the downside pressure, Shao said.

    Analysts with Standard Chartered said that stringent control measures, a high vaccination rate and more experience in maintaining business continuity should limit the impact of a new COVID resurgence in China.

    "In comparison, in case of a mild COVID outbreak with effective containment of the virus and only a short period of lockdown, the negative impact is likely to be 1.2 to 1.7 percent of quarterly GDP, or 0.3 to 0.4 percent of annual GDP. Under this scenario, the lost output could be fully recovered in the subsequent quarter depending on the mix of domestic policy settings and global demand," they said in a research note.

    The latest national economic data indicates that China's key growth drivers, including exports, have shown signs of weakening amid easing global demand. The rising headwinds have also triggered calls for more policy attention to boost domestic consumption and to facilitate a stronger recovery of the services sector, which matters significantly for China's job market.

    In contrast to the strong rebound of industrial production and exports in the first half of the year, the trend of consumption recovery in China, especially services, remains below the pre-pandemic level, analysts said.

    Wang Jingwen, a macroeconomic researcher with China Minsheng Bank, said the services sector, including long-distance transport, hospitality, catering, offline retail, sports and entertainment could bear the brunt from the resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

    This could put some pressure on achieving the government's employment goals as well as China's recovery in consumption, a key pillar of economic growth amid softening prospects for exports, Wang said.

    Top
    BACK TO THE TOP
    English
    Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
    License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

    Registration Number: 130349
    FOLLOW US
    CLOSE
     
    一本无码中文字幕在线观| 亚洲一区精品无码| 亚洲AV中文无码乱人伦下载 | 大学生无码视频在线观看| 午夜成人无码福利免费视频| 中文字幕aⅴ人妻一区二区 | 亚洲一区无码精品色| 日本一区二区三区不卡视频中文字幕| 中文无码人妻有码人妻中文字幕| 亚洲中文字幕久久精品无码喷水| 中文字幕乱码人妻一区二区三区 | 乱人伦人妻中文字幕无码| 中文字幕丰满乱孑伦无码专区| 精品日韩亚洲AV无码一区二区三区| 亚洲色偷拍区另类无码专区| 亚洲∧v久久久无码精品| 最好看的2018中文在线观看| 精品国产aⅴ无码一区二区| 免费a级毛片无码免费视频| 久久精品aⅴ无码中文字字幕不卡| 国产成人无码一区二区三区在线 | 亚洲国产精品无码久久九九| 黄A无码片内射无码视频| 最近中文字幕完整版免费高清| 国产成人无码一区二区在线播放 | 无码人妻丰满熟妇区BBBBXXXX| 国产成人无码18禁午夜福利p| 无码一区二区三区免费| 国内精品无码一区二区三区 | 亚洲VA成无码人在线观看天堂| 亚洲熟妇无码八V在线播放 | 一本一道av中文字幕无码| 亚洲伊人成无码综合网| 中国少妇无码专区| 中文成人无码精品久久久不卡| 在线观看无码AV网站永久免费| 人妻无码人妻有码中文字幕| 国产 亚洲 中文在线 字幕| 中文字幕 qvod| 中文字幕久久欲求不满| 中文字幕人成乱码在线观看|