Instability can cut short tenures of future Japanese leaders

As Japan prepares for a special parliamentary session on Monday to elect a new leader, experts have warned of the possibility of "revolving door" leadership in the country for a period of time with an electoral deadlock leading to political instability and triggering intense maneuvers among different political parties.

Currently, almost all major political parties are engaged in hectic power plays to secure the top job for their leaders. Leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to meet with leader of junior coalition partner Komeito on Saturday, the right-leaning Japan Innovation Party head on Sunday, and leaders of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Democratic Party for the People on Monday, according to Jiji Press.

Ishiba is actively seeking support from across the political spectrum to retain his position at the helm after the LDP and Komeito lost their majority in the Lower House after 15 years. To reclaim control of the influential chamber, they must now secure the support of a third party, and hence the frantic parleys.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, made significant gains in the Oct 27 general election, but not enough to form a government. The good showing, however, has meant its leader Yoshihiko Noda has emerged as a strong candidate for the premiership.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People, which increased its seat count in the Lower House fourfold to 28, is emerging as a pivotal "kingmaker" with the potential to tip the scales in Monday's ballot, according to the Japan Times.

DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, being courted by all sides, has dismissed the possibility of his party formally joining the LDP-Komeito coalition.

With the ruling coalition lacking a majority, and opposition parties each likely to vote for their own leaders in the initial round, the prediction is that no candidate will secure a majority in the first round. A runoff — the first since 1994 — most likely between LDP leader Ishiba and CDP leader Noda, would probably decide the winner.

On Tuesday, Tamaki met with Noda, who is trying to unite opposition parties around political reforms, including stricter rules for political donations. The parliamentary affairs chiefs from various opposition parties also put their heads together on Tuesday to work out potential strategies.

The DPFP has signaled its willingness to cooperate with the LDP — Japan's largest political party — on a case-by-case basis. "That makes sense given the unpopularity of the Ishiba administration," the Japan Times said.

Meanwhile, senior officials from the LDP and DPFP met this week to discuss economic measures, further signaling the DPFP's role as a pivotal swing party in shaping future policies.

Ishiba plans to introduce household support measures, including utility cost cuts — a priority shared by the DPFP. With this alignment, Ishiba hopes to secure the DPFP's backing for a supplementary budget proposal for fiscal 2024 in an upcoming extraordinary parliamentary session.

Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan Program at Stimson Center, wrote in an article on the think tank's website that it is anyone's guess who will emerge from the second round as Japan's next prime minister.

Tatsumi cautioned that Japan could revert to a "revolving door" era of prime ministers, casting a shadow of uncertainty on the long-term policies established over a decade ago by late former prime minister Shinzo Abe.

Most analysts expect the LDP to aim for a minority government, collaborating with smaller parties on budgets and legislation as needed rather than forming a larger coalition.

With opposition parties now holding a combined 235 seats, the prospect of a government without the LDP cannot be dismissed either.

Wang Xinsheng, a professor of history at Peking University, noted that the possibility of Japan's Innovation Party joining the ruling coalition remains open, depending on the course of ongoing negotiations.

A minority government, however, would be in a precarious position in parliament. "Without a majority, it would be extremely difficult for the ruling party to pass budgets and legislation," Wang explained. "Cooperation with the opposition will be essential."

"This means the ruling coalition and opposition will negotiate over nearly every issue, from bills to policies," he added. "In such a scenario, decision-making will become slower and more complex, and the administration itself will face increased checks."

A fragile foundation in parliament would weaken Ishiba's position. Not only will his administration have to rely on the opposition and independent members for policymaking and legislative support, but fractures within his own party would also be a bother with ambitious senior members ready to challenge him.

Sun Wenzhu, an associate research fellow in the department for Asia-Pacific studies at the China Institute of International Studies, remarked that predicting Japan's next prime minister is a challenging task. Cooperation between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party or the DPFP is possible if the LDP's proposals align with their interests.

However, the opposition remains divided over both priorities and ideology, making it difficult for the LDP to form a coalition with other opposition parties.

"Japan may enter a phase of political instability, or a 'revolving door' of prime ministers," Sun observed.

If Ishiba manages to navigate these challenges, he might gain additional influence within the LDP, potentially extending his administration until the Upper House election in July 2025, Sun said.