Nations in eye of US tariff storm

    Economies could face 'mortal blow' if Washington carries out threat, experts say

    By Yang Gao in Toronto | China Daily | Updated: 2025-01-10 09:33
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    A volunteer serves food to a group of people at a Christmas solidarity dinner for the homeless in Buenos Aires on Dec 24, as poverty reaches more than half of the Argentine population. TOMAS CUESTA/AFP

    "Argentina could strengthen ties with China, which is already a more significant partner than the US, or look to the European Union through agreements like the Mercosur-EU trade deal," he said.

    Campos acknowledged the recent reforms in Argentina, including a Ministry of Deregulation, aimed at modernizing the economy.

    "If Argentina continues this trajectory, it could become more resilient and attract investment, but it's a slow and challenging process," he said, adding that diversification of economic partners should be Argentina's priority.

    Campos expressed cautious optimism over Argentina's long-term prospects.

    "The country's path to sustainable growth lies in continuing structural reforms, fostering trade diversification and improving competitiveness," he said.

    Canada faces significant economic and strategic challenges following Trump's proposal to impose a 25 percent tariff on its goods.

    Global shock

    Peter Phillips, a distinguished professor at the University of Saskatchewan, told China Daily, "This is not just a Canadian issue; it's a global economic shock." He said such tariffs could disrupt industries, supply chains and bilateral relations.

    "The tariffs' impact on Canada's GDP is estimated to be from 1 to 5 percent," said Phillips, an economist who was also a senior policy adviser in Canadian industry and government.

    He said Canada's automotive sector was particularly vulnerable, given the deep integration of North American supply chains.

    "We export roughly $30 billion worth of cars and trucks to the US annually, and our trade is balanced, with nearly equal imports," he said.

    "A disruption in this sector could trigger significant challenges for just-in-time manufacturing systems," he said.

    Agriculture also could be affected, he said, especially red meat and livestock, because of the industry's heavy reliance on the US market.

    "For products such as grains and oilseed, Canada might find another market, but not for the red meat.

    "The supply chains are so deeply intertwined that tariffs would cause shortages and price spikes on both sides of the border," Phillips said.

    He also mentioned potential regional difficulties inside Canada, most specifically in seasonal agricultural exports, which include fruits and vegetables.

    "These exports are critically important to the US market during certain times of the year, and any disruption could create challenges for both countries," he noted.

    While the tariffs present substantial risks, Phillips sees opportunities for Canada to rethink its trade strategy.

    "The US has always been Canada's easiest and most profitable market, but this is a wake-up call to look elsewhere," he said.

    He also urged a readjustment toward domestic-oriented economic policies, such as weaning off raw material exports and nurturing innovative industries, like biotechnology and advanced manufacturing.

    "This could push Canada to achieve long-term gains, even if the immediate impact is disruptive," he said.

    Ontario Premier Doug Ford suggested that the province could cut off energy exports to the US.

    "Interrupting energy exports could destabilize the integrated North American power grid, which relies on seamless flows across borders," Phillips said.

    "It could lead to brownouts or price spikes, not just in the US but also in Canadian provinces like Quebec, where electricity exports are a major economic driver," he said.

    Phillips said the US tariffs reflect a broader shift away from the principles of the global trade system, which has traditionally been built on trust and cooperation.

    "This kind of 'America first' model undermines the stability of international trade and creates volatility that's bad for everyone," he said.

    Marjorie Griffin Cohen, a Canadian economist and a professor at Simon Fraser University, told China Daily, "Canada could face profound economic and political consequences if the proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods materialize.

    "This would radically alter both the Canadian economy and the global trading system shaped by the 'Washington consensus'," Cohen said.

    "If Trump unilaterally raises tariffs, it will erode confidence in the World Trade Organization and the rules governing North American trade deals," she said.

    Cohen said tariffs targeting oil and gas would be particularly devastating.

    "There's no existing pipeline to transport Alberta oil to the eastern provinces, and building one would take years," she said. "While some more could be shipped west for export, this would be no substitute because the volume would not make up for the lost sales to the US."

    She cited the US' long-standing push for access to Canada's controlled markets for poultry, eggs and dairy products.

    "These industries would struggle to survive a massive influx of American products," she said.

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