China's 2025 box office has crossed a crucial milestone during the National Day holiday period, with the year-to-date cumulative gross overtaking 2024's full-year total of 42.5 billion yuan ($5.96 billion) as holiday releases flood cinemas across the country.

Within days of the start of the holiday frame, this year's cumulative total reached approximately 42.6 billion yuan, according to the latest figures. The arrival of two new releases on Tuesday — Chen Kaige's war epic The Volunteers: Peace at Last and the comedy offering Row to Win — and the official start of the eight-day National Day holiday on Oct 1, assisted the box office in surpassing 2024's total nearly three months before year's end.

The biggest single driver of this year's surge has been Ne Zha 2, which opened during the Chinese New Year holiday and has amassed more than 15.4 billion yuan domestically, accounting for over a third of the annual gross to date.

Other major contributors include Detective Chinatown 1900 at 3.6 billion yuan, as well as summer box office leaders Dead to Rights at 3 billion yuan and Nobody at 1.6 billion yuan, with the latter becoming the highest-grossing 2D animated film in Chinese history.

September's standout Evil Unbound — a film depicting the atrocities committed by Japan's notorious Unit 731 during World War II — closed the month with 1.5 billion yuan, making it the fifth-highest earner of the year.

China's box office has been navigating a bumpy path to recovery since 2019, when the yearly revenue peaked at a record-breaking figure of over 64 billion yuan. After a 2023 rebound to 54.9 billion yuan, annual grosses retreated again in 2024 to 42.5 billion yuan. There is cautious optimism among industry watchers that 2025 could climb past 50 billion yuan, given the current momentum heading into the final quarter.

Holiday lineup dynamics

According to data from Chinese movie ticketing platform Maoyan, new films scheduled for the National Day holiday have generated more than 100 million yuan in pre-sales and previews by noon on Tuesday. Early front-runners are crime thriller Sound of Silence, The Volunteers: Peace at Last, the final entry in Chen Kaige's trilogy, following two earlier installments that together grossed over 2 billion yuan; and A Writer's Odyssey II, a sequel to the 2021 fantasy-action hit that topped 1 billion yuan.

The lineup also features live-action comedy Row to Win, historical animated feature Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes, crime thrillers The Return of the Lame Hero and Sons of the Neon Night, and a re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water.

Despite a crowded release slate, the holiday season is "still lacking a true tentpole to really fire up the market," said Lai Li, a Maoyan analyst. "This year's holiday runs one day longer than usual, which may help word-of-mouth-driven titles build legs. Strong reviews could still push the slate toward an outsized performance."

IP-driven expansion

Analysts also highlight the growing weight of sequels and franchise-building in the Chinese market. "Sequels, franchises and IP-based films are becoming mainstream," said Chen Jin, an analyst at film data platform Beacon. "The Volunteers concludes a trilogy that has already drawn nearly 50 million admissions. A Writer's Odyssey II extends a successful commercial property, and Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes is clearly designed to launch a new franchise."

This trend reflects a push toward greater industrialization and maturity in the Chinese film industry, Chen added, echoing Hollywood's long-standing reliance on intellectual property as a driver of repeat viewership.

Despite uneven performances in earlier release windows this year — a record Lunar New Year followed by a weak May Day and a steady summer — the National Day period could prove pivotal in confirming the strength of the 2025 recovery.

With the annual total poised to surpass last year's figure within days, the big question is whether China can cross the symbolic 50 billion yuan threshold, further cementing its standing as one of the world's most dynamic box offices.

Xinhua