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Trade's share in economic growth drops

By Xin Zhiming (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-10-21 07:27

The contribution of trade to China's economic growth fell to 12.5 percent in the first nine months of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday.

The decline from 21.4 percent in the same period last year and the worsening global financial crisis have prompted economists to forecast harder times for exporters in the first half of next year.

Goods and services trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to the country's 9.9 percent GDP growth in the nine months to September, NBS spokesman Li Xiaochao told a press conference. It was 2.4 percentage points during the same period last year.

The world economic slowdown, together with the appreciation of the yuan, rising costs and tightened credit, has pushed many domestic exporters to the wall. As a result, a large number of them have gone bankrupt since last year.

China's exports in the first nine months of the year grew 22.3 percent year-on-year, down 4.8 percentage points.

"Trade figures show we are in a dire situation," said Li Mingxu, an economist with Beijing-based Anbound Consulting.

The slowing trade growth will not only affect the Chinese economy, but also its neighboring economies, analysts said.

"With export orders declining, China will reduce its imports This will create an impact on the rest of the Asia-Pacific region," said Sherman Chan, researcher with Moody's Economy.com.

Australia, for instance, may face a massive slowdown in resource exports, which have been its important growth engine in recent years.

Japan, South Korea and the electronic-specializing Association of Southeast Asian Nations will feel the squeeze of a slowing Chinese economy, too.

"The end of China's dream run will mark the end of Asia Pacific's boom," Chan said.

To stabilize the trade growth, the State Council, China's cabinet, has vowed to raise the export rebate for textile, apparel and mechanical and electrical equipment exporters. The government has relaxed lending rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, too. Many of these firms are exporters.

"The policy direction has become definite and the State will help exporters meet the challenges," Li Mingxu said. "The government may give more support to the low-end manufacturing sectors, given their low profit margins."

Despite the government measures to help exporters, China's trade growth could dip further at least in the first half of next year, said Li Jian, researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce.

Many economists and international agencies have forecast that the US and European economies would start to step out of the crisis only in the second half of next year.

"Past experiences, such as those during the post-Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, show that government support can only play a limited role." That's why a substantial improvement in the external environment is crucial to the economy, Li Jian said.