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China's growth rate may fall to 6%: AT Kearney

By Bao Wanxian and Xin Zhiming (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-11-27 20:06

International consulting firm AT Kearney said in its latest report that China's annual economic growth could slump to 6 percent next year, 1.5 percentage points lower than the World Bank's estimate.

Special coverage: Trends and Policies Coping with Crisis

Related readings:  China's GDP growth slowing to 8% in Q4  China slashes interest rates to boost growth  WB reduces '09 growth rate to 7.5%

The report also said the growth of "BRIC" countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China, would fall sharply next year and their contribution as a whole to the world economic growth would drop by 50 percent from the 2006 level next year, as the global economic recession may last for up to 2 years.

But many economists believe that the strong fiscal position and forceful stimulus measures by the Chinese government would keep the economy from falling too sharply.

China has vowed to put in $586 billion in its latest stimulus plan to boost the economy and the central bank has cut the interest rates by a steep 1.08 percentage points – the biggest cut in 11 years. More stimulus packages could be in the pipeline, analysts said.

Many analysts said there is still room for further interest rate cuts of around 54-108 basis points by next June.

If all the pro-active measures work well, China's economic growth may be above 8 percent next year, said Dong Xian'an, macroeconomic analyst with China Southwest Securities.

Li Jianwei, senior economist of the State Council's Development Research Center, said it could be above 9 percent next year if the central government policies are implemented seriously.