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Commodity traders have reason for optimism

By Wang Lan (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-12-12 07:57

A glimmer of light has shined through the gloom hanging over the Shanghai commodity futures market.

Futures contract prices of several key industrial commodities rebounded smartly on expectations that strong signals from the just-concluded annual Central Economic Work Conference can lead to new economic stimulus measures that will create greater demand for basic metals and other industrial materials.

On Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded fuel oil futures contracts for March delivery yesterday rose 2.4 percent to 2,522 yuan per ton, rising for the third consecutive day. Meanwhile, the most actively traded aluminum contracts for delivery in February edged up 1 percent to 10,840 yuan per ton, although most actively traded copper contracts for the same month dropped 0.2 percent to 25,230 yuan per ton.

Analysts said the recovery of futures contract prices indicates a revival of market confidence, which has been boosted by the government's stimulus package. Many investors believe the economic conference ironed out many of the details and cleared the grounds for the implementation of the package.

"The government investment in infrastructure would help create fresh demand for steel, as reflected in the price recovery in some steel products during the past two weeks," said Zhang Ping, a specialist in steel at Umetal, a leading domestic steel industry consultancy firm.

Industry figures show that the prices of some steel products have been increased since mid-November, with spot prices of hot rolled strip rising 20 percent from last month, and cold rolled strip up 12 percent.

But some economists and industry experts worried the confidence being regained may not last long.

"We continue to believe that China's infrastructure spending spree, by itself, will not be enough to turn around the decline in major global commodity prices," said Frank FX. Gong, chief economist at JPMorgan Securities (Asia- Pacific), in a recent report.

On London Metal Exchange, the copper contract for three-month delivery dropped 0.73 percent to $3,246 per ton in Asia Time electronic trading, while the three-month delivery contract of aluminum also sunk 0.69 percent to $1,509 per ton.

Meanwhile, on New York Mercantile Exchange, the most actively traded crude oil futures contract for January delivery rose a slight 0.2 percent to $43.64 per barrel. The contract has dropped an aggregate 59.3 percent since the end of September.