久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

中文USEUROPEAFRICAASIA

Tuning up for 2014 reform

( China Daily ) Updated: 2014-01-06 01:42:55

Michael Power, global investment strategist at Investec Asset Management, based in Cape Town, believes the conference indicated the government is intent on adopting a major reform strategy.

"My essential reading is that the authorities are going to surprise on the upside with regard to taking the tough decisions regarding implementing reform, even if this has the effect of marginally reducing GDP growth," he says.

"I think they realize that 7 to 8 percent real local currency growth, or some 13 percent if you add back inflation and currency appreciation, is hardly modest for a country which already ranks as the world's second-largest economy."

Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley in New York, and author of Breakout Nations: In search of the Next Economic Miracles, says he was looking for pointers for growth from the conference.

"I will be more encouraged if China relaxes its growth target to below 7.5 percent," he says.

"I just think the current level of growth is just too high for a middle-income economy, and especially when it is taking on so much additional debt to meet that target."

He says that China with a per capita income of around $7,000, has reached the stage when the previous "miracle economies" of East Asia, such as Japan and South Korea began to slow from double digits to around 5 to 6 percent GDP growth.

"The popular narrative is that slower growth will feed joblessness and social tension. This fear is misplaced. Every percentage point of growth in China's maturing economy now produces 1.6 million to 1.7 million new jobs, up from 1.2 million 10 years ago. So even at GDP growth of 5 to 6 percent, China would generate enough new jobs, particularly at a time when the population is aging and fewer young people are entering the workforce."

Louis Kuijs, chief China economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong, says the conference made clear that reform would not be carried out overnight and that the agenda set out at the third plenum should not be seen as a short-term project.

"It (the Central Economic Work Conference) was relatively cautious. I don't think we should expect any rapid breakthroughs relatively soon," he says.

Miranda Carr, head of China research at North Square Blue Oak, based in London, agrees with that assessment.

She says that although the government has a radical agenda, the conference for her made it apparent it was not going to be easy to implement.

"While China's reform program promises to lift China's economic development quite radically over the longer term, it is not going to be plain sailing," she says.

"The conference promised stability and steady development and not major change. This indicates that consensus has been difficult to achieve on more contentious issues."

Many were looking to see pointers that the government was intent on introducing financial reform, such as bringing competition into a banking sector dominated by the Big Four State-owned banks, and further opening up the capital markets.

Ding at Citi believes the conference pointed to a series of announcements on financial reform.

He expects progress on such measures as the widening of the renminbi trading band, the setting up of private banks and a pressing ahead with qualified domestic institutional investors, which will allow private individuals to invest in assets abroad such as equities and bonds and maybe even property. Chinese citizens are currently restricted to sending just $50,000 abroad in any one year.

"All these measures seem to be ready to be rolled out, so we may see a lot of small steps in 2014, " he says.

"Taking a longer view, I think complete interest rate liberalization and a free system is some time off. I do think Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, is, however, completely committed to that."

Carr at North Square Blue Oak says there were obvious risks with financial reform that the government had already encountered.

She points out that e-commerce giant Alibaba Group's Yu'ebao fund lured 100 billion yuan ($16.5 billion) away from the country's bank deposits in just four months.

"New innovative financial products such as this are already causing quite a lot of disruption to the financial system," she says.

For George Magnus, senior independent economic adviser at UBS AG based in London, reforming the banking system could prove risky.

He is worried about the over-indebtedness of the local government sector and says this makes it a difficult time to introduce such reforms.

"Financial liberalization could end up backfiring. If you allow interest rates to go up and the market a free rein in determining the cost of capital while you have a legacy of debt within local governments and SOEs (State-owned enterprises), you are going to get the problems of non-performing loans and asset prices going the wrong way. You can't afford to get the sequencing wrong."

There was also interest in a separate work conference, the Central Urbanization Conference, held in December.

It placed emphasis on the reform of the hukou or household registration system so that migrant workers enjoy the full social benefits of the cities they migrate to.

Some believe this is the key to China becoming a more consumer-led economy, because if workers move with their families to cities, they are likely to spend more rather than save money and remit it home

Some commentators are worried that the government is trying to make urbanization an object in itself rather than an outcome of other policy initiatives.

According to management consultants McKinsey & Co Inc, China's urban population might hit 1 billion by 2030.

Junheng Li, founder of JL Warren Capital LLC, a New York-based equity research company focusing on China, and author of Tiger Woman on Wall Street, says there did not seem to be any sense of urgency coming from the conference about hukou reform.

"When I grew up in Shanghai, they tried to urbanize fast, but they didn't have enough jobs for migrant workers, so the crime rate went up too fast. My mom used to say I needed to be extra cautious when I rode on the buses," she says.

"You can't just wield a stick at 300 million people and tell them to move to the cities without anything to go to in the first place. That goes right to the heart of the hukou system. When migrant workers go to the cities, they should not be treated as second-class citizens. They need to be provided with equal opportunities."

Kuijs at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc says at some point the government may have to throw some red meat to convince everyone that they are really serious about reform.

He says one key reform he would like to see is dividends from China's SOEs going directly to the Ministry of Finance and not, as at present, going to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the body that runs SOEs.

"This would really send a strong signal about the resolve of the government," he says. "This is public money and if it goes back to the overall fiscal envelope there can be a proper discussion about what should be done with this money."

Magnus at UBS says the difficulty for the government is effecting change without the risk of creating dangerous imbalances.

"Economic history is littered with seemingly innocuous moves that have butterfly-wing effects. It was a small interest rate rise in Germany that precipitated the global stock market crash in 1987. It was also one of the last interest rate rises in Japan in 1989 that led to the great Japanese bust. These could be warning signs for China."

Ding at Citi says the government is aware of the risks but is determined to press ahead with the reform agenda. "I think the government will accelerate reform in 2014, particularly in the areas where they have reached a consensus, such as in the financial sector," he says.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Most Popular
Special
...
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    亚洲国产日产av| 国产中文字幕一区| 91精品中文字幕一区二区三区| 日韩国产精品久久| 精品久久久久久久人人人人传媒| 国产精品一区在线观看乱码| 中文字幕在线不卡一区 | 久久99精品久久久久| 2024国产精品| 97se亚洲国产综合自在线观| 亚洲成av人片在www色猫咪| 欧美一区二区私人影院日本| 国产乱理伦片在线观看夜一区| 国产精品福利在线播放| 91丨九色丨蝌蚪富婆spa| 亚洲成av人**亚洲成av**| 日韩欧美一级二级| 成人激情av网| 性做久久久久久免费观看| 精品久久久久一区二区国产| 丁香网亚洲国际| 亚洲一区二区三区四区中文字幕| 欧美一区二区成人| 成人短视频下载| 亚洲sss视频在线视频| 久久婷婷色综合| 日本道在线观看一区二区| 另类小说视频一区二区| 国产精品久久久一本精品| 欧美日韩电影一区| 粗大黑人巨茎大战欧美成人| 亚洲va韩国va欧美va| 国产三级精品在线| 欧美日韩一区二区三区高清| 国产一区福利在线| 亚洲国产日韩a在线播放| 国产亚洲va综合人人澡精品| 欧美午夜免费电影| 国产激情一区二区三区四区 | 欧美一区二区精品| www.日韩大片| 久久精品国产77777蜜臀| 亚洲同性gay激情无套| 欧美一级高清片在线观看| 99精品偷自拍| 国产自产v一区二区三区c| 亚洲色图制服丝袜| 精品国产一区二区三区久久久蜜月 | 午夜不卡av免费| 国产视频一区在线播放| 欧美精品久久久久久久多人混战 | 国产欧美一二三区| 欧美一二三在线| 91免费看视频| 国产一区中文字幕| 午夜精品一区二区三区电影天堂| 国产精品私房写真福利视频| 日韩欧美国产麻豆| 91福利小视频| 国产成人三级在线观看| 奇米777欧美一区二区| 亚洲激情男女视频| 国产精品三级电影| 精品国精品国产尤物美女| 欧美情侣在线播放| 色视频一区二区| 成人av综合一区| 国产真实精品久久二三区| 天堂av在线一区| 亚洲午夜激情av| 亚洲天堂免费看| 欧美国产日韩亚洲一区| 日韩欧美123| 91精品国产品国语在线不卡| 欧美午夜精品电影| 91麻豆.com| 成人av在线资源网站| 国产一区二区三区精品欧美日韩一区二区三区 | 日韩伦理av电影| 国产精品丝袜久久久久久app| 日韩免费性生活视频播放| 国产女同互慰高潮91漫画| 制服丝袜成人动漫| 欧美熟乱第一页| 在线看国产一区| 97精品电影院| 99精品欧美一区二区蜜桃免费| 国产成人在线视频网站| 激情图片小说一区| 精品一区二区三区香蕉蜜桃 | 精品国产乱码久久久久久浪潮| 在线综合视频播放| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉的| 欧美性xxxxx极品少妇| 色婷婷av一区二区三区大白胸 | 99r精品视频| 成人免费黄色大片| 国产成人精品三级| 成人中文字幕在线| 成人午夜精品在线| 成年人午夜久久久| av高清久久久| 日本道精品一区二区三区 | 欧美日韩1区2区| 欧美日韩大陆在线| 欧美日韩精品免费| 91精品国产综合久久精品性色| 欧美丰满高潮xxxx喷水动漫 | 91麻豆精品国产91久久久资源速度| 欧美日韩中文字幕精品| 欧美三级蜜桃2在线观看| 欧美日韩亚洲另类| 欧美浪妇xxxx高跟鞋交| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉超级流畅 | 国产精品99久久久久久似苏梦涵 | 国产一区二区三区四区五区美女 | 91精品国产综合久久精品麻豆 | 日本一道高清亚洲日美韩| 日韩高清不卡一区二区三区| 蜜臀av性久久久久蜜臀aⅴ| 毛片一区二区三区| 国产一区二区三区黄视频 | 欧美精品三级日韩久久| 欧美一区二区三区视频在线观看| 日韩一卡二卡三卡四卡| 日韩欧美二区三区| 久久精品欧美日韩| 中文字幕在线观看不卡| 亚洲国产视频在线| 日本中文字幕一区| 国产精品影视在线观看| 9久草视频在线视频精品| 欧洲一区二区av| 91精品在线麻豆| 欧美精品一区二区久久婷婷| 亚洲国产精品激情在线观看| 亚洲六月丁香色婷婷综合久久| 香蕉成人伊视频在线观看| 精品一区二区三区在线观看| 成人免费视频app| 欧美中文字幕久久 | 日韩欧美亚洲另类制服综合在线 | 亚洲欧美日韩久久| 午夜电影网一区| 国产一区二区在线观看免费| 99久久99久久精品免费观看 | 国产精品久久精品日日| 亚洲一区二区三区四区在线观看| 麻豆91在线播放| 成人av资源网站| 欧美嫩在线观看| 国产婷婷精品av在线| 一区二区高清在线| 久草这里只有精品视频| 色综合天天做天天爱| 日韩欧美一区二区在线视频| 中文字幕av一区二区三区免费看| 亚洲电影第三页| 国产成人免费视频网站| 欧美日韩综合一区| 国产欧美一区二区精品性色| 五月天精品一区二区三区| 国产精品一二三四| 欧美人与性动xxxx| 国产精品美女久久久久久久网站| 午夜电影网一区| av在线不卡网| 日韩欧美另类在线| 亚洲乱码一区二区三区在线观看| 捆绑变态av一区二区三区| 色综合久久综合网欧美综合网| 精品国产精品一区二区夜夜嗨| 一区二区三区四区激情| 国产成人综合精品三级| 51精品视频一区二区三区| 国产精品福利电影一区二区三区四区 | 男人的天堂久久精品| gogogo免费视频观看亚洲一| 日韩一区二区在线免费观看| 亚洲女人的天堂| 国产毛片一区二区| 欧美男人的天堂一二区| 国产精品久99| 国产一区二区三区美女| 8x8x8国产精品| 亚洲乱码国产乱码精品精小说| 国产精品66部| 欧美一区二区播放| 亚洲一区在线观看视频| 不卡一区中文字幕| 久久众筹精品私拍模特| 视频一区二区欧美| 色综合av在线| 国产精品乱人伦| 狠狠v欧美v日韩v亚洲ⅴ| 欧美久久久一区| 夜色激情一区二区| eeuss鲁一区二区三区| 国产清纯在线一区二区www| 美美哒免费高清在线观看视频一区二区|