久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / Opinion

China can walk and chew at the same time

By Stephen Green (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2014-05-28 09:49

Chinese government seems less willing than its predecessor to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), but how long can it resist?

There is a strong argument for easier monetary policy. The People's Bank of China, or PBOC, already appears to have lowered interbank rates, which should boost bond issuance and discounting of bankers' accepted drafts. This policy easing has been conducted without any official signal. But growth is going to get weaker in Q3 and clear evidence that Beijing is moving to stabilize the economy will become more important. You cannot deleverage an economy which is not growing.

From June 2008 to September the same year, the RRR was reduced by a total of 250bps. This was in response to the global financial crisis and a collapse in external demand – a clear emergency. But between January 2010 and June 2011, the RRR for large financial institutions was raised to 21.5 percent. The central bank later cut RRR in December 2011, February 2012 and May 2012 by a total of 150bps. This move was more similar to today's situation, coinciding with a slowdown in industrial activity and housing. We have assembled several key economic indicators, including industrial value-added growth, electricity growth and interbank liquidityto show what was happening when the RRR was cut in 2008 and 2011.

Industrial value-added (IVA) growth. It collapsed in September 2008. The late-2011 RRR cut also took place at a time of slowing IVA growth. Today, IVA growth is slow but stable, according to the official numbers. The current level of IVA growth is consistent with a RRR cut, but it is not (officially) decelerating, which weakens the case for a cut.

Electricity growth. Electricity production is one reliable way to check the accuracy of industrial activity data (if you worry that the IVA numbers might be exaggerated). Electricity production growth is slowing to a level similar to the time of the 2008 RRR cut; it is well below the growth rate at the time of the 2011 RRR cut.

Credit growth. As is shown in our in-house measure, credit growth decelerated to 17 percent year–on-year from 22 percent during the 2008 RRR-cutting cycle, and to around 15-17 percent from 25 percent in 2011.

Interbank liquidity. Do high interbank rates (i.e., tight interbank liquidity) cause the PBOC to cut the RRR? It seems not. In 2008, the 7-day repo rate was around 3.0-3.5 percent at the time of the first RRR cut; it did not initially react to the first cut, though it fell to 1 percent following a sharper reduction. The situation was a little different in 2011, when yields were relatively high, at around 4 percent. Again, the RRR cut did not immediately have a big effect on liquidity, but the 7-day repo rate did ease to 3.0-3.5 percent.

At present, the 7-day repo rate is trading below its level at the time of the 2011 RRR cut, and above the level at the time of the 2008 cut. We conclude that interbank liquidity is not particularly tight (the result of PBOC monetary policy loosening already implemented), but is at a level where a RRR cut is possible.

Real interest rates. As inflation has fallen, real bank loan rates have risen. This is a problem because high real interest rates raise borrowing costs. Despite the elimination of administrative controls on lending rates, de facto bank loan rates tend to be quite sticky and still do not react to rises and falls in interbank rates. With nominal corporate sales growth still lackluster, a high real interest rate is a problem. In such an environment, debt burdens can easily rise rather than fall.

Corporate profits. In previous RRR cutting cycles, corporate profit growth was running at around 20 percent and was decelerating sharply. Today, profit growth is at a much weaker level but appears directionless. With profit growth at around zero percent, the time appears right to lighten corporates' burden by easing policy. Paying a real interest rate of 6 percent in an environment of such sluggish profit growth is likely to translate into weak corporate investment.

Housing sales growth. Given the importance of residential housing to China's economy, and the high leverage of developers, housing activity indicators are worth looking at. In 2008, housing sales growth had just turned negative when the PBOC cut the RRR; in 2011, sales were just about to enter negative year-on-year territory.

Home prices. Prices of new homes appear to be stabilizing – but are still rising on a year-on-year basis, according to official price data. The data does not capture informal discounts offered by developers who prefer to keep their top-line sales price stable. In 2008 and 2011, in contrast, home prices were around six months into a deceleration phase when the RRR was cut.

Most of the above indicators suggest that if Beijing's reaction function were the same as before, the RRR would have already been cut. Premier Li is to be congratulated for changing the framework of monetary policy to accept slower growth.

That said, we think Beijing can walk and chew gum at the same time – i.e., both push through reforms and ease monetary policy to support growth. The economy is set to slow further this year given the downdraft caused by the real-estate sector, high real interest rates and very low profit growth. Structural reforms are unlikely to deliver a meaningful growth dividend, and there is limited room to ease via the exchange rate.

The author is head of Greater China Research at Standard Chartered Bank. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    天天做天天摸天天爽国产一区| 婷婷丁香激情综合| a亚洲天堂av| 亚洲三级在线免费观看| 在线看不卡av| 天堂久久久久va久久久久| 日韩精品一区国产麻豆| 国产精品69毛片高清亚洲| 国产精品女同一区二区三区| 一本色道久久综合精品竹菊| 午夜日韩在线电影| 精品av久久707| 粉嫩av一区二区三区粉嫩 | 亚洲精品欧美激情| 在线不卡中文字幕播放| 国产乱码精品一区二区三区忘忧草| 国产精品不卡在线观看| 欧美日韩三级一区| 国产麻豆精品视频| 亚洲天堂a在线| 欧美一二三四区在线| 国产.欧美.日韩| 亚洲自拍偷拍图区| 精品理论电影在线观看| 99久久伊人精品| 日韩成人午夜精品| 中文字幕av一区二区三区高| 欧美日韩在线观看一区二区| 国产精品99久久不卡二区| 亚洲与欧洲av电影| 久久久电影一区二区三区| 色哟哟在线观看一区二区三区| 麻豆成人免费电影| 亚洲色图在线播放| 精品国产免费人成在线观看| 一本大道久久精品懂色aⅴ| 久久99精品网久久| 一二三区精品视频| 久久久久国产精品人| 欧美综合色免费| 东方欧美亚洲色图在线| 日韩av午夜在线观看| 中文字幕在线观看一区| 日韩一区二区在线看| 色中色一区二区| 国产一区二区在线观看视频| 亚洲va韩国va欧美va精品| 国产精品久久久爽爽爽麻豆色哟哟| 欧美精品一卡二卡| 99riav久久精品riav| 国模冰冰炮一区二区| 亚洲国产精品自拍| 国产精品久久久久久久久免费桃花| 日韩一级免费一区| 欧美日韩中文字幕精品| 99久久综合狠狠综合久久| 精品午夜一区二区三区在线观看| 亚洲午夜免费福利视频| 欧美国产日韩a欧美在线观看| 欧美一区二区视频网站| 欧美在线制服丝袜| av在线不卡电影| 国产剧情一区二区三区| 奇米精品一区二区三区在线观看一| 亚洲美女淫视频| 国产欧美精品一区| 日韩美女在线视频| 欧美日韩色一区| 色乱码一区二区三区88| hitomi一区二区三区精品| 国内国产精品久久| 久久精品国产澳门| 日产精品久久久久久久性色| 亚洲午夜免费电影| 亚洲精品国久久99热| 中文字幕制服丝袜一区二区三区 | 午夜影院久久久| 亚洲精品日韩一| 亚洲欧美怡红院| 国产精品网曝门| 国产三级三级三级精品8ⅰ区| 精品国产凹凸成av人网站| 91精品国产一区二区人妖| 欧美调教femdomvk| 在线观看精品一区| 色婷婷亚洲综合| 色婷婷av一区二区| 91免费视频网址| 91麻豆高清视频| www.亚洲精品| 不卡高清视频专区| 成人免费视频免费观看| 国产美女av一区二区三区| 狠狠色丁香久久婷婷综| 久久精品999| 精品在线一区二区三区| 精品一区二区久久| 久久精品国产亚洲高清剧情介绍| 日本va欧美va精品| 蜜臀久久99精品久久久久宅男 | 欧美日本在线观看| 欧美区视频在线观看| 欧美午夜电影在线播放| 欧美日韩亚洲综合在线| 欧美日韩午夜在线| 欧美精品丝袜久久久中文字幕| 欧美丰满少妇xxxxx高潮对白| 91精品国产欧美日韩| 日韩限制级电影在线观看| 精品国产乱码91久久久久久网站| 精品成人一区二区三区四区| 久久久久久9999| 国产精品女主播av| 亚洲精品国产一区二区三区四区在线| 亚洲伦理在线精品| 亚洲国产综合91精品麻豆| 图片区小说区区亚洲影院| 蜜桃视频一区二区三区| 国产精品自拍一区| 成人精品高清在线| 在线欧美日韩精品| 在线播放国产精品二区一二区四区| 91精品国产欧美一区二区18| 久久综合丝袜日本网| 国产精品久久影院| 亚洲综合免费观看高清完整版在线| 香蕉久久夜色精品国产使用方法 | 日韩美女精品在线| 亚洲午夜激情网站| 美女高潮久久久| 国产成人在线网站| 一本一道久久a久久精品| 欧美日韩一区在线| 精品国产91久久久久久久妲己| 国产日本亚洲高清| 亚洲精品免费在线播放| 青娱乐精品视频| 风间由美一区二区三区在线观看 | 亚洲少妇屁股交4| 午夜精品一区在线观看| 激情国产一区二区| 97se亚洲国产综合自在线| 欧美日本一区二区三区四区 | 亚洲免费毛片网站| 强制捆绑调教一区二区| 国产一区二区三区在线观看免费| 99久久777色| 日韩一区二区三区四区| 国产精品色噜噜| 亚洲成人先锋电影| 国产麻豆9l精品三级站| 一本久道久久综合中文字幕| 日韩一二三区不卡| 亚洲视频一二三区| 日本vs亚洲vs韩国一区三区二区| 国产99精品视频| 欧美日韩一区视频| 国产清纯在线一区二区www| 亚洲国产日韩综合久久精品| 国产一区不卡精品| 欧美三级电影网| 亚洲国产精华液网站w | 久久精品久久综合| 91啦中文在线观看| 欧美成人a∨高清免费观看| 亚洲欧洲av色图| 九色porny丨国产精品| 91老师国产黑色丝袜在线| 精品欧美久久久| 亚洲伊人色欲综合网| 国产精品中文字幕一区二区三区| 欧美偷拍一区二区| 中文字幕第一区第二区| 日韩精品免费专区| av网站免费线看精品| 日韩一级欧美一级| 亚洲夂夂婷婷色拍ww47| 国产传媒日韩欧美成人| 91精品在线观看入口| 亚洲人成电影网站色mp4| 国产一区二区精品久久99| 欧美日韩免费一区二区三区视频| 国产欧美1区2区3区| 日本欧美韩国一区三区| 国产亚洲综合av| 午夜激情一区二区三区| 99久久精品国产导航| 精品少妇一区二区三区视频免付费| 亚洲精品自拍动漫在线| 国产精品综合久久| 日韩一卡二卡三卡国产欧美| 亚洲自拍偷拍av| 99精品国产91久久久久久 | 欧美mv日韩mv亚洲| 亚洲福利一区二区三区| 99久久精品免费观看| 久久久91精品国产一区二区精品| 蜜臀99久久精品久久久久久软件| 欧美在线免费观看亚洲| 最新欧美精品一区二区三区|