久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

What will the economy be like next year

By MARK WILLIAMS/JULIAN EVANS-PRITCHARD (China Daily) Updated: 2014-12-08 13:09

China's leaders will gather in Beijing shortly to discuss priorities for 2015. They use the year-end Economic Work Conference to set out priorities for the year ahead.

Fiscal policy has been "proactive" in 11 of the last 15 years, including in the past few years in which the (cyclically adjusted) fiscal deficit was first reduced and then rebounded. And monetary policy has been "prudent" since 2011 and will probably remain that way in 2015.

The People's Bank of China recently cut benchmark interest rates and we (at Capital Economics) expect further cuts next year. But changes in policy and in how policy is described don't go hand in hand. For example, the shift from "prudent" to "tight" policy at the end of 2007 only happened when the tightening cycle had almost come to an end.

Despite the economic slowdown this year, the labor market has proved remarkably resilient. And as China's economy shifts towards the more labor-intensive service sector, lower growth rates will be sufficient to maintain healthy employment growth. With the labor market now their primary concern, policymakers should therefore feel comfortable lowering their growth target for next year, most likely to "about 7.0 percent".

Turning to the outlook for the main expenditure components, consumption growth has been broadly stable this year and should hold up reasonably well in 2015 given the recent strength of wage growth. Also, export growth, which has picked up this year, should remain healthy given that we expect global growth to be slightly stronger in 2015.

However, support from consumption and exports is unlikely to fully offset downward pressure on growth because of overcapacity in many industries, most notably property, which will weigh on investment.

While recent policy measures are likely to provide some support to sales, a large glut of unsold properties means developers will remain cautious about launching new projects and we therefore don't foresee a marked recover in construction activity next year.

More positively, the recent sharp fall in oil prices should give a boost to spending. In 2013, China's net imports of oil cost the equivalent of 2.5 percent of GDP. If the 30 percent fall in global oil prices is sustained, the economy as a whole will be better off to the tune of 0.8 percent of GDP.

In principle, this windfall could boost GDP by a similar margin if it was all spent. The boost is unlikely to be quite so big because companies and households in China typically save a large share of their income. Nonetheless, for a large oil consumer like China, the fall in prices reduces the downside risks to growth.

We expect inflation to continue falling next year. That said, we think deflation fears are overdone; we are not expecting consumer price inflation to turn negative. In any case, the fall in inflation is largely being driven by falls in global commodity prices which should actually benefit most firms and households.

Besides, wage growth and profit margins remain healthy.

The focus here is likely to remain on keeping financing costs low. The recent rate cut has not been fully passed on by banks and is unlikely to help smaller companies so policymakers may have to do more. We expect two more cuts to benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year, as well as liquidity injections, including in the form of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, in order to bring down market interest rates.

But we shouldn't read too much into any given move. Tougher banking regulation will have a tightening effect over the months ahead. A slowdown in foreign exchange purchases would be felt in a similar way. To some extent, liquidity injections and RRR cuts will be needed to offset these shifts.

Crucially, we don't see the recent benchmark rate cut as the start of a new easing cycle similar to that in 2008. Interest rates are likely to fall but we believe that the PBoC will stop short of driving a sustained rebound in credit growth, unless the economy and labor market deteriorate markedly.

How policymakers respond to the revision to China's budget law, which will come into effect on Jan 1, will be key in determining the fiscal stance for next year. The new law requires that the two-thirds of government spending that currently takes place outside the formal budget, either by branches of government or notionally independent local government financing vehicles, be included in the budget.

While this is a welcome step toward boosting transparency, it will force officials to either drastically tighten the effective fiscal stance or see the budget deficit soar.

As expected, financial reforms are progressing the fastest. The recently announced deposit insurance scheme should come into force early next year and lay the foundations for the launch of more private banks and further steps toward interest rate liberalization. In that regard, while we expect the benchmark deposit rates to be cut again, we think the PBoC will keep the ceiling on deposit rates unchanged next year by increasing the margin by which retail deposit rates can exceed the benchmark.

The result would be to give banks more flexibility in setting interest rates and to support greater competition.

Other areas to watch include the hukou (household registration) system, where liberalization is inching forward, and State-owned enterprises where more pilot programs for mixed ownership schemes could be launched.

We also expect further efforts to reduce the regulatory burden, particularly on smaller companies, and encourage more private sector investment in currently protected parts of the economy. Also, a nationwide property registry could be launched, paving the way for the eventual expansion of the much-touted property tax.

In some other areas reforms may make slower progress. The strength of the US dollar and rapid appreciation of the renminbi in trade-weighted terms looks to be pushing the PBoC to resume foreign exchange intervention, setting back hopes within the PBoC that the renminbi could soon be allowed to float freely. In turn, this implies that full opening-up the capital account remains some way off.

The authors are economists with Capital Economics, a London-based independent macroeconomic research consultancy.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    玉米视频成人免费看| 五月天激情综合网| 91网站最新地址| 亚洲日本欧美天堂| 欧美体内she精高潮| 免费黄网站欧美| 久久蜜桃av一区精品变态类天堂| 岛国av在线一区| 亚洲人成人一区二区在线观看 | 精品少妇一区二区三区免费观看| 国产在线麻豆精品观看| 国产精品无人区| 在线视频你懂得一区二区三区| 午夜精品久久久久影视| 精品久久久久一区二区国产| 懂色av噜噜一区二区三区av| 亚洲精选在线视频| 日韩欧美123| 成人黄色小视频在线观看| 亚洲午夜国产一区99re久久| 日韩欧美视频一区| www.欧美精品一二区| 亚洲成av人片一区二区| 欧美精品一区二区精品网| 99免费精品在线观看| 亚洲成人精品一区| 国产亚洲欧美日韩日本| 91女人视频在线观看| 天天影视网天天综合色在线播放| 日韩免费视频线观看| 成人黄色av网站在线| 日日夜夜精品视频免费| 欧美国产激情二区三区| 欧美二区在线观看| 豆国产96在线|亚洲| 日韩中文字幕一区二区三区| 欧美激情中文字幕| 欧美精品 日韩| av一本久道久久综合久久鬼色| 日本伊人精品一区二区三区观看方式| 日本一区二区三区在线不卡| 欧美日韩在线精品一区二区三区激情| 国产精品一区免费视频| 亚洲成av人片在线观看| 中文字幕欧美三区| 51久久夜色精品国产麻豆| 成人激情午夜影院| 男女男精品视频| 亚洲精品免费在线| 久久精品一级爱片| 91精品国模一区二区三区| av电影在线观看一区| 久久99精品国产| 亚洲成人中文在线| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区| 欧美不卡在线视频| 欧美日韩中文字幕精品| heyzo一本久久综合| 久久国产麻豆精品| 亚洲午夜一区二区| 国产精品国产三级国产| 精品乱人伦小说| 欧美久久一二三四区| 91啦中文在线观看| 风间由美一区二区av101| 日本不卡不码高清免费观看| 一区二区欧美视频| 国产精品―色哟哟| 亚洲精品一区二区三区精华液| 欧美精品日韩综合在线| 色哟哟一区二区| 成人免费看视频| 秋霞午夜av一区二区三区| 一区二区三区中文字幕精品精品| 中文字幕电影一区| 久久久不卡网国产精品二区| 欧美一区二区国产| 欧美日韩久久久一区| 色综合久久久网| 成人av网在线| 成人黄色软件下载| 国产91精品在线观看| 国产酒店精品激情| 精品一区二区三区香蕉蜜桃 | 亚洲一区二区欧美| 日韩美女精品在线| 国产精品久久国产精麻豆99网站| 久久综合狠狠综合久久综合88| 欧美一区二区在线免费播放| 欧美色精品在线视频| 在线观看亚洲精品视频| 色婷婷久久一区二区三区麻豆| 成人不卡免费av| 成人高清免费观看| 粉嫩aⅴ一区二区三区四区五区 | 国产精品香蕉一区二区三区| 另类人妖一区二区av| 美腿丝袜亚洲一区| 久久精品免费看| 久久机这里只有精品| 日韩黄色免费电影| 日本亚洲免费观看| 美国毛片一区二区三区| 麻豆成人免费电影| 久久99九九99精品| 国产一区二区三区观看| 国产一区二区福利| 国产福利视频一区二区三区| 国产成人鲁色资源国产91色综| 国产sm精品调教视频网站| 成人av免费观看| 99久久国产综合精品麻豆| 91丨九色丨蝌蚪富婆spa| 91国偷自产一区二区使用方法| 欧美中文字幕亚洲一区二区va在线| 91国模大尺度私拍在线视频| 在线欧美小视频| 欧美伦理电影网| 日韩欧美一二三| 久久久久久99精品| 国产精品第五页| 亚洲自拍偷拍网站| 丝袜美腿亚洲综合| 久久99国产精品尤物| 国产成人精品免费看| 99re6这里只有精品视频在线观看| 91香蕉视频污| 欧美欧美欧美欧美首页| 精品日韩成人av| 亚洲国产高清aⅴ视频| 伊人婷婷欧美激情| 天天做天天摸天天爽国产一区| 麻豆精品久久精品色综合| 国产99久久久国产精品| 91老师片黄在线观看| 9191久久久久久久久久久| 久久看人人爽人人| 国产精品家庭影院| 亚洲成人激情自拍| 激情深爱一区二区| 不卡欧美aaaaa| 欧美日韩1区2区| 久久精品视频在线看| 亚洲啪啪综合av一区二区三区| 午夜视频一区二区三区| 激情另类小说区图片区视频区| 粉嫩一区二区三区性色av| 在线看不卡av| 精品区一区二区| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区 | 日韩欧美视频在线| 中文字幕巨乱亚洲| 午夜伊人狠狠久久| 国产激情精品久久久第一区二区 | 欧美在线视频你懂得| 欧美xxxxx牲另类人与| 亚洲国产成人自拍| 五月婷婷久久综合| 国产aⅴ精品一区二区三区色成熟| 欧洲另类一二三四区| 精品嫩草影院久久| 亚洲欧美另类图片小说| 久久国内精品自在自线400部| 成人av电影免费在线播放| 欧美卡1卡2卡| 亚洲国产高清不卡| 青青草一区二区三区| www.欧美日韩| 精品国免费一区二区三区| 亚洲激情欧美激情| 国产精品1区二区.| 欧美日韩精品专区| 中文字幕在线观看一区二区| 免费看欧美女人艹b| 色成人在线视频| 国产日韩欧美精品在线| 日韩黄色一级片| 91浏览器入口在线观看| 久久久久99精品一区| 视频在线在亚洲| 94-欧美-setu| 久久免费国产精品| 视频一区二区三区在线| 99久久精品一区二区| 精品国产一区二区三区久久久蜜月| 亚洲综合激情网| 成人黄色av电影| 精品久久久久久久久久久久包黑料| 一区二区三区四区av| 国产盗摄视频一区二区三区| 欧美一区二区日韩一区二区| 一区二区三区成人| 成人深夜在线观看| 精品精品国产高清一毛片一天堂| 亚洲福利视频导航| 91视频91自| 国产精品系列在线| 国产在线一区观看| 日韩视频一区二区三区在线播放 | 国产河南妇女毛片精品久久久|