久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Economic data move toward new normal

By Louis Kuijs (China Daily) Updated: 2015-01-22 07:35

The economic data of Jan 20 showed that, on a quarterly basis, the slowdown of China's economy was interrupted in the fourth quarter of 2014. However, for the year as a whole, GDP growth slowed from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 7.4 percent last year, slightly below the official target of 7.5 percent, the first time this has happened since 1990.

The economic slowdown was especially visible in industry, particularly heavy industry, which was jolted by the real estate downturn and where the impact of the slowdown on corporate activity and profits is amplified by falling output prices.

Activity and price developments in light industry and the service sector were more favorable. Indeed, we (at Royal Bank of Scotland) saw further rebalancing of the pattern of growth in 2014. As the share of the secondary (industrial) sector fell 1.3 percentage points to 42.6 percent of GDP, the service sector's share increased 2.1 percentage points to 48.2 percent, even though the rebalancing on this dimension was less rapid in real terms.

The relatively favorable growth of the comparatively labor-intensive service sector supported the labor market. With real service sector GDP growth edging down from 8.3 percent in 2013 to 8.1 percent last year, new urban job creation - the government's preferred labor-market indicator - was 10.7 million, exceeding the target of 10 million. Migrant employment growth - a good indicator on the vibrancy of the urban labor market - picked up slightly in the fourth quarter of last year, after an earlier slowdown.

The relatively good labor market performance through 2014 was an important reason why China's leadership remained relatively restrained with regard to macroeconomic stimulus and a reason the leadership thought it acceptable for growth to slightly miss the growth target in 2014.

Inflation faces downward pressure because of falling prices of raw commodities on global markets and overcapacity in China's industry, although the likelihood of a pernicious deflationary spiral is not high.

Economic growth is likely to remain under downward pressure in the first half of 2015, affected by continued real estate weakness. In spite of measures to stimulate housing sales taken in the second half of last year, a real estate recovery is not likely any time soon. Although low raw commodity prices should support margins in industry, corporate investment momentum will probably not improve much either in 2015, given the weak demand prospects and overcapacity in several sectors.

Other growth drivers remain broadly intact, though. Infrastructure investment should continue to be supported by policymakers' reliance on such investments to support growth, although the implementation of the new local government debt framework does pose downside risks. Consumption should continue to benefit from a solid labor market and low inflation, while the outlook for exports is reasonable.

Key risks to the outlook include a more pronounced global monetary and exchange rate upheaval, weaker global trade growth and, in China itself, a more pronounced downturn in real estate, lower infrastructure investment following the implementation of the local government debt framework, and jitters in financial markets on the back of credit events.

Policy support will be needed to achieve GDP growth of close to 7 percent in 2015 - the likely growth target for this year - but policymakers will remain reluctant to move toward major, high-profile stimulus measures in line with their emphasis on "the new normal", instead of stimulus. On the fiscal front, while infrastructure investment will remain a focus this year, there is no major stimulus in the pipeline.

On the monetary front, calls for policy to support growth and contain borrowing costs will be balanced with the need to rein in the rise in leverage and financial risks. The People's Bank of China has largely continued to implement "targeted" monetary policy measures instead of high-profile measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or further interest rate cuts. Earlier this week, the PBoC increased relending to financial institutions that serve agriculture and small companies. Another factor holding back an RRR cut has been large inflows into the equity market in recent months, in part fuelled by margin trading, although measures announced last Friday by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission to rein that in seem to have had a major dampening impact on the stock market and may make an eventual RRR cut more likely.

The author is chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    欧美在线你懂得| 日韩三级免费观看| 最新热久久免费视频| 99麻豆久久久国产精品免费优播| 亚洲欧美偷拍三级| 欧美性一区二区| 日本vs亚洲vs韩国一区三区二区| 欧美xxxx老人做受| 国产99精品国产| 亚洲免费观看高清| 在线观看91av| 国产精品99久久久| 亚洲免费观看高清完整版在线观看熊 | 日本美女一区二区三区视频| 精品国产乱码久久久久久久| 成人av在线资源网| 亚洲高清在线精品| 欧美xxxxx裸体时装秀| 99久久99久久精品国产片果冻| 亚洲午夜视频在线| 亚洲精品在线免费播放| aaa亚洲精品| 日韩精品一级二级| 国产欧美精品一区| 欧美三级日韩三级| 国产一区日韩二区欧美三区| 亚洲欧美日韩在线播放| 欧美剧情片在线观看| 国产黄色精品网站| 亚洲综合成人在线视频| 久久精品一区二区三区av| 在线观看91精品国产入口| 极品少妇xxxx精品少妇偷拍| 亚洲免费观看高清完整| 精品国产凹凸成av人网站| 91啦中文在线观看| 久久精品国产亚洲高清剧情介绍 | 国产精品不卡在线观看| 777午夜精品视频在线播放| 高清不卡一区二区在线| 日韩av不卡在线观看| 中文字幕日韩精品一区| 欧美一级片在线| 色综合中文字幕国产| 日韩国产精品久久| 1024成人网| 欧美精品一区二区三区蜜桃视频| 色老头久久综合| 国产精品99久久久久久似苏梦涵| 午夜欧美一区二区三区在线播放 | 久久精品在线免费观看| 欧美日韩高清不卡| 99久久久久久| 国产一区999| 丝袜亚洲精品中文字幕一区| 一区在线中文字幕| 久久综合色婷婷| 欧美精品色综合| 色婷婷综合在线| 国产凹凸在线观看一区二区| 免费国产亚洲视频| 亚洲一区电影777| 亚洲日本在线观看| 国产性天天综合网| 日韩一区二区三区四区| 欧美性大战久久| 91小宝寻花一区二区三区| 国产一区福利在线| 日本亚洲视频在线| 亚洲一级片在线观看| 国产精品视频免费| 久久久久88色偷偷免费| 日韩一级大片在线观看| 色老综合老女人久久久| 99国产精品久| 成人av中文字幕| 懂色av一区二区在线播放| 精品在线播放午夜| 青青草国产精品亚洲专区无| 亚洲国产日韩a在线播放| 亚洲日本va在线观看| 国产精品久久久久久亚洲伦| 久久九九久精品国产免费直播| 精品欧美乱码久久久久久 | 亚洲制服丝袜在线| 亚洲美女淫视频| 国产精品日产欧美久久久久| 国产日韩欧美a| 久久久美女艺术照精彩视频福利播放| 欧美一区二区三区思思人| 欧美精品一二三四| 91麻豆精品国产自产在线观看一区| 欧美丝袜丝nylons| 欧美自拍丝袜亚洲| 欧美亚洲综合在线| 欧美视频一区在线| 欧美日韩一区中文字幕| 欧美亚洲日本国产| 欧美色网站导航| 欧美日韩一区在线| 欧美日韩久久一区| 欧美日韩高清一区二区| 91精品啪在线观看国产60岁| 欧美剧在线免费观看网站| 欧美区一区二区三区| 欧美精品视频www在线观看| 91精品一区二区三区在线观看| 欧美一级片在线| 久久一日本道色综合| 久久久久久日产精品| 国产欧美一区二区精品婷婷| 亚洲国产激情av| 综合色中文字幕| 亚洲免费在线播放| 亚洲成人先锋电影| 青青草成人在线观看| 久久国产精品第一页| 国产麻豆午夜三级精品| 国产.欧美.日韩| av一区二区三区在线| 色狠狠色狠狠综合| 欧美色中文字幕| 日韩亚洲欧美在线| 久久久影院官网| 中文字幕一区二区三区av| 亚洲精品视频在线观看免费| 一区二区三区波多野结衣在线观看| 亚洲午夜激情av| 热久久一区二区| 激情欧美一区二区| 99热在这里有精品免费| 欧美日韩一区二区在线观看视频| 欧美一级欧美三级在线观看| 久久久久久久综合| 综合欧美一区二区三区| 无码av免费一区二区三区试看| 久久99最新地址| 白白色 亚洲乱淫| 欧美日韩欧美一区二区| 精品奇米国产一区二区三区| 国产精品国产精品国产专区不片 | 久久精品免费观看| av高清不卡在线| 欧美日韩一区二区三区视频| 精品国产凹凸成av人导航| 国产精品久久综合| 五月天丁香久久| 国产精品影视在线| 在线视频中文字幕一区二区| 精品久久久久久久久久久久久久久| 国产精品视频一二| 日韩国产精品久久久久久亚洲| 国产.欧美.日韩| 欧美精品色综合| 欧美激情资源网| 午夜欧美一区二区三区在线播放| 国产精品一区二区久激情瑜伽| 色婷婷综合在线| 久久久欧美精品sm网站| 亚洲一区二区三区三| 国产精品一线二线三线精华| 在线免费观看日本一区| 久久在线观看免费| 亚洲国产欧美日韩另类综合| 国产精品影音先锋| 欧美精选一区二区| 国产精品狼人久久影院观看方式| 日韩精品电影一区亚洲| av中文字幕不卡| 精品国产欧美一区二区| 樱桃视频在线观看一区| 国产又粗又猛又爽又黄91精品| 在线一区二区三区| 国产日韩综合av| 日韩黄色一级片| 91丨九色porny丨蝌蚪| 精品粉嫩aⅴ一区二区三区四区| 一区二区三区四区精品在线视频 | 欧美精品一区二区三区蜜桃 | 亚洲美女精品一区| 国产一二精品视频| 51午夜精品国产| 亚洲精品国产无套在线观| 国产乱码精品一区二区三区忘忧草 | caoporn国产精品| 精品久久久久久无| 性做久久久久久久久| 91在线无精精品入口| 久久久欧美精品sm网站| 日本一不卡视频| 欧美午夜不卡视频| 国产精品传媒在线| 国产精品综合一区二区三区| 日韩欧美一级在线播放| 亚洲国产裸拍裸体视频在线观看乱了| 成人激情文学综合网| 久久久亚洲精品石原莉奈| 欧美aⅴ一区二区三区视频| 欧洲另类一二三四区| 中文字幕在线一区免费|