久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

Opinion

Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors

By Amitendu Palit (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-05-11 14:29
Large Medium Small

Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors

China and India both are worried about the impact of high oil prices on their growth prospects. Global oil prices had begun increasing in 2010, well before problems surfaced in North Africa and the Middle East. As the world economy gradually recovered from recessionary conditions, demand for oil increased, hiking its prices.

The first quarter of 2011 saw prices rising further because of disruptions in oil supplies from Egypt and Libya. Though the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has increased production, inflationary fears over crude oil prices are getting stronger. The news of Osama bin Laden's death had depressed oil prices temporarily. But they have begun rising again.

In its latest assessment of the world economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global oil prices to increase by more than 35 percent in 2011. The prediction may come good, given the current trends. From about $70 a barrel this time last year, oil prices increased to $125 a barrel at the end of April 2011. They dropped below $115 a barrel following bin Laden's death. But this will probably be a short-lived trend because fears of greater turbulence in West Asia will lead to increase in prices.

Related readings:
Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors Oil falls to near $101 ahead of US supply reports
Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors China's shipping sector suffers from overcapacity, high oil price
Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors China may levy resource tax of 10% on oil, gas
Oil prices a worry for Asian neighbors China to crack down on illegal oil sales

The current rate of price increase has serious implications for China and India. It can recreate the scenario of 2008, when crude oil prices reached almost $150 a barrel, a few months before the collapse of Lehmann Brothers and the outbreak of the global financial crisis. With economic activity and GDP growth in both countries having recovered to pre-crisis levels, high oil prices pose major risks to their growth.

As two of the world's leading oil consumers and crude oil importers, demand for oil in both countries is relatively price-inelastic. Given their growth trajectories, neither country will experience decline in demand for oil in spite of high prices. And as they keep buying oil at high prices, both will feel the impact on their balance of payments, inflation and GDP growth. Higher oil imports will reduce their trade surplus and bring down their current account balances.

China's large trade surplus will help in absorbing a major part of high import costs and can marginally moderate the current account balance. For India, however, the scenario is more worrying. Its current account deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP can worsen because of high oil imports and a deteriorating trade balance.

India and China both will be worrying about the effect of oil prices on domestic inflation, too. High crude prices will lead to higher prices of gasoline, liquid petroleum gas, diesel and aviation fuel and result in higher producer and consumer prices in all domestic energy-intensive activities.

Inflation is already high in both countries. Further rise in domestic prices means more hardships for low and middle-income groups. India has already raised interest rates for tackling prices. High interest rates, however, can discourage investment and depress GDP growth. According to the IMF, if crude oil prices reach $150 a barrel, they may reduce GDP growth for 2011 by 0.50-0.75 percentage point in China and by about 0.25 percentage point in India.

Both countries are helpless when it comes to oil prices because they can hardly influence them. Lack of adequate oil supplies in the Asia-Pacific region ensures that China and India continue to depend on oil from North Africa and the Middle East. This dependence increases their vulnerability to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the resultant volatility in oil prices.

A possible option for both countries to reduce this dependency is to shift to other suppliers of oil and energy. Russia may be one such supplier. Europe is trying to reduce its reliance on the Middle East by procuring more oil from Russia. For China and India, too, Russia can be a feasible alternative, more so because China, India and Russia are members of the BRICS club and are already cooperating with each other on several issues.

A second course of action for minimizing the harms caused by high oil prices is to coordinate spot purchases of crude oil from the international market. In recent years, China and India both have been responsible for driving up prices in the global oil market because of their large demands. Both countries had discussed the possibility of coordinating spot purchases of crude oil during Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India in December 2010. So effective coordination of oil purchase will help both in avoiding unexpected volatility in prices.

A third option is to enter into more forward contracts with suppliers for future purchase of crude oil at previously agreed prices. But given the current high prices of oil, delivery prices in such contracts may also be high. This is where the negotiating skills of oil companies from both countries will be tested as they try to secure favorable forward delivery contracts.

The author is head of Development & Programmes and visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore.

分享按鈕
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    日本欧美加勒比视频| 精品一区二区三区香蕉蜜桃| 欧美日韩精品专区| 日日摸夜夜添夜夜添国产精品| 69av一区二区三区| 国内一区二区在线| 欧美激情在线一区二区| 色婷婷一区二区| 日韩精品亚洲专区| 久久这里只精品最新地址| jlzzjlzz亚洲日本少妇| 亚洲午夜在线电影| 日韩免费看的电影| thepron国产精品| 丝袜美腿成人在线| 久久久亚洲午夜电影| 色综合一区二区| 日本成人超碰在线观看| 国产精品人成在线观看免费| 精品1区2区3区| 久久激五月天综合精品| 最新中文字幕一区二区三区| 欧美日本不卡视频| 国产成人午夜高潮毛片| 亚洲一区二区三区精品在线| 久久亚洲欧美国产精品乐播| 色老汉一区二区三区| 日本不卡视频在线| 国产精品成人在线观看| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉超级流畅 | 91视频一区二区| 麻豆精品在线看| 成人欧美一区二区三区在线播放| 91精品国产免费| 99国产麻豆精品| 久久99久久久久久久久久久| 亚洲欧美日韩电影| 久久久久久久久97黄色工厂| 欧美日韩国产综合久久| 北条麻妃国产九九精品视频| 青青草成人在线观看| 椎名由奈av一区二区三区| 日韩欧美一二区| 在线亚洲人成电影网站色www| 国产伦理精品不卡| 午夜在线电影亚洲一区| 成人午夜在线播放| 日韩综合一区二区| 1区2区3区精品视频| 久久综合色鬼综合色| 色老综合老女人久久久| 国产成人午夜片在线观看高清观看 | 国产精品色婷婷久久58| 欧美一级片在线| 色呦呦日韩精品| 国内精品伊人久久久久av一坑| 亚洲福利视频一区| 国产精品国产三级国产aⅴ无密码 国产精品国产三级国产aⅴ原创 | 亚洲欧美一区二区三区极速播放| 久久综合给合久久狠狠狠97色69| 欧美视频三区在线播放| 成人app软件下载大全免费| 狠狠色丁香久久婷婷综合丁香| 午夜av区久久| 亚洲精品国产成人久久av盗摄| 国产日韩欧美麻豆| 日韩精品一区二区三区四区| 在线不卡欧美精品一区二区三区| 91福利精品视频| www..com久久爱| 粉嫩绯色av一区二区在线观看 | 欧美亚洲高清一区| 91小视频免费观看| 本田岬高潮一区二区三区| 国产精品538一区二区在线| 久久国产夜色精品鲁鲁99| 婷婷亚洲久悠悠色悠在线播放| 一区二区三区欧美亚洲| 亚洲欧美怡红院| 中文字幕乱码一区二区免费| 亚洲精品一区二区三区四区高清 | 天堂va蜜桃一区二区三区漫画版| 亚洲精品国产无套在线观| 国产精品视频第一区| 国产亚洲欧美日韩在线一区| 久久综合国产精品| www久久精品| 26uuuu精品一区二区| 欧美成人三级在线| 精品日韩99亚洲| 精品乱人伦小说| 精品久久久久一区| 精品成人免费观看| 久久久亚洲精品石原莉奈| 久久综合99re88久久爱| 久久久噜噜噜久久人人看| 久久久久久久精| 日本一区二区三区久久久久久久久不| 国产午夜亚洲精品理论片色戒| 久久久欧美精品sm网站| 久久精品亚洲乱码伦伦中文| 国产日产精品1区| 国产精品高潮呻吟久久| 亚洲免费在线电影| 亚洲最大成人综合| 亚洲成人动漫在线免费观看| 天堂成人国产精品一区| 麻豆精品在线看| 国产麻豆视频精品| 成人午夜av电影| 94色蜜桃网一区二区三区| 日本韩国精品一区二区在线观看| 亚洲黄色性网站| 亚洲国产一区二区视频| 日日夜夜免费精品| 久热成人在线视频| 国产高清成人在线| av在线免费不卡| 在线视频一区二区三| 在线播放中文一区| 精品国产91久久久久久久妲己| 久久久不卡网国产精品二区| 国产精品久久一级| 一区二区高清在线| 蜜臀国产一区二区三区在线播放| 国产一区二区三区最好精华液 | 不卡一区二区中文字幕| 91成人国产精品| 欧美一区二区三区影视| 久久久午夜精品| 亚洲人成精品久久久久| 午夜欧美一区二区三区在线播放| 免费观看在线色综合| 国产a区久久久| 色8久久精品久久久久久蜜 | 久久精品欧美日韩精品| 日韩美女精品在线| 午夜精品久久久久久久久久 | 欧美日本精品一区二区三区| 欧美电视剧在线观看完整版| 国产欧美精品国产国产专区| 一区二区三区在线视频免费观看| 日韩电影网1区2区| 丁香婷婷综合激情五月色| 91成人看片片| 26uuu精品一区二区在线观看| 日韩一区在线播放| 美女在线观看视频一区二区| 成人av在线播放网址| 在线成人午夜影院| 中文字幕国产精品一区二区| 亚洲成人久久影院| 国产精品小仙女| 欧美日韩亚洲丝袜制服| 国产日韩欧美不卡| 午夜视频在线观看一区二区 | 欧美mv和日韩mv国产网站| 国产精品传媒入口麻豆| 青青草97国产精品免费观看| 99国产精品久久久久| 日韩一级片网站| 亚洲图片欧美激情| 激情图区综合网| 在线观看av不卡| 日本一区免费视频| 免费精品视频最新在线| 93久久精品日日躁夜夜躁欧美| 日韩免费福利电影在线观看| 亚洲欧美一区二区久久| 国产麻豆精品theporn| 欧美专区日韩专区| 欧美激情一区二区三区在线| 免费黄网站欧美| 色婷婷综合久久| 国产喂奶挤奶一区二区三区| 肉肉av福利一精品导航| 色综合久久久网| 欧美国产综合色视频| 麻豆成人免费电影| 欧美性猛交xxxx乱大交退制版 | 日韩一区二区免费在线观看| 亚洲男人天堂一区| 豆国产96在线|亚洲| 日韩美一区二区三区| 亚洲一区二区三区四区在线观看| 成人午夜激情在线| 丝袜美腿成人在线| 在线一区二区三区四区五区| 中文字幕av在线一区二区三区| 裸体健美xxxx欧美裸体表演| 欧美性videosxxxxx| 亚洲欧洲成人自拍| 国产精品一区二区久久不卡| 欧美一区二区久久| 亚洲1区2区3区视频| 91麻豆swag| 国产精品国产三级国产有无不卡| 国产精品18久久久久久久久| 日韩欧美在线不卡| 天天免费综合色|