US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
    Business / Economy

    Deflation rears its ugly head

    By Chen Jia (China Daily) Updated: 2012-09-17 10:05

    The weakening industrial indicators added to evidence that the government's cautious steps of policy stimulus have not yet stopped economic decline, said Xiao Bo, an analyst with Huarong Securities Co.

    "The Chinese economy may face a more serious deflationary situation in the future," Xiao said.

    With no signals from the government of immediately stimulating growth, worries about slowing economic growth remain unabated.

    The Chinese economy may continue to deteriorate in the third quarter, with the GDP growth rate cooling to less than the year's target of 7.5 percent from the second quarter's 7.6 percent, the lowest for three years, according to economists.

    The development has delayed the time forecasting for the economy to begin to bottom out from the second half. At least another three or four months are needed to see a rebound when all the industrial indices are currently disappointing the market, economists said.

    The People's Bank of China has cut benchmark interest rates twice since June in order to boost market liquidity and encourage bank lending.

    The eased monetary policy appears to have been insufficiently strong to create steady industrial growth in July and August.

    UBS AG lowered the predicted whole-year GDP growth rate at the beginning of September from 8 percent to 7.5 percent after recent economic activity remained weak as export growth slowed.

    "The policy support was not as rapid or aggressive as previously envisaged," a report from UBS stated. "Although local governments seem eager to increase public investment, they have not been supported by a concerted central government effort or bank financing."

    Zhu Haibin, chief economist in China with JPMorgan Chase & Co, said that stabilizing economic growth is much more important in the short term. "The central bank still has some room to ease monetary policy, including cutting interest rates and lowering the reserve requirement ratio," he said.

    He added that September would be a good time to cut interest rates again.

    It may be very stressful for policy makers to adopt stimulus packages soon even though the signs of decline are getting stronger.

    The gradual slowdown in the economy is not as sudden as the collapse in 2008 and any major policy easing may lead to a quick rebound in property sales and prices that will take away the government's efforts over the past two years.

    "We expect a somewhat intensified implementation of the existing policy measures, including an increase in infrastructure investment, but a major new stimulus is unlikely unless the economy worsens sharply," said Wang Tao, chief economist in China for UBS.

    In September the Chinese government approved 25 subway lines and 13 highway projects nationwide within a week. Nomura Securities Co estimated total investment for the infrastructure projects will exceed 1 trillion yuan ($157.48 billion).

    That may be an effective method to boost fixed-asset investment and then drive up the whole GDP later this year, economists said.

    "As long as the country's economic growth can be stabilized, the likelihood of deflation disappears," said Zuo Xiaolei, an economist with Galaxy Securities.

    chenjia1@chinadaily.com.cn

    Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

    Hot Topics

    Editor's Picks
    ...
    色综合中文字幕| 好硬~好爽~别进去~动态图, 69式真人无码视频免| 亚洲AV永久青草无码精品| 青春草无码精品视频在线观| 制服在线无码专区| 天堂网www中文在线| 日韩AV片无码一区二区不卡电影| 中文字幕成人精品久久不卡| A∨变态另类天堂无码专区| 国产aⅴ无码专区亚洲av麻豆| 日本中文字幕一区二区有码在线| 无码日韩精品一区二区免费暖暖 | 最近2019年中文字幕一页| 国产亚洲精品无码成人| 亚洲AV无码一区二区三区DV| 欧美精品丝袜久久久中文字幕 | 最近2019中文免费字幕在线观看| 欧洲Av无码放荡人妇网站| 亚洲色中文字幕无码AV| 欧美麻豆久久久久久中文| 亚洲一区精品中文字幕| 日韩中文字幕在线视频| 中文字幕乱码久久午夜| 亚洲成?v人片天堂网无码| 97碰碰碰人妻视频无码| 久久av无码专区亚洲av桃花岛 | 18禁无遮拦无码国产在线播放| 亚洲AV无码久久精品蜜桃| 免费一区二区无码东京热| 亚洲天堂中文字幕在线| 中文字幕日本在线观看| 亚洲制服中文字幕第一区| 人妻精品久久久久中文字幕69 | 911国产免费无码专区| 玖玖资源站无码专区| 精品无码一区二区三区亚洲桃色| 久久综合精品国产二区无码| 18禁无遮拦无码国产在线播放| 久久精品无码一区二区日韩AV| 亚洲色偷拍区另类无码专区| 中文字幕精品亚洲无线码二区|