久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Future money uncertainties

By Zhang Monan (China Daily) Updated: 2012-11-29 14:30

External factors have caused the recent rise in the yuan's spot exchange rate and the fall in its forward trading rates

The yuan's spot exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated to a maximum daily ceiling more than 20 times since Oct 8.

The drastic appreciation, which has caused more and more domestic discussions about whether the yuan has entered a new appreciation cycle, is in sharp contrast with its continuous depreciation during most of the first half of this year. With a strong appreciation tendency, the yuan has continuously hit a new high against the dollar since China first launched reform of its exchange rate mechanism in 1994.

Compared with its robust spot exchange rate, the yuan's forward exchange rate, however, has gone the other way. Data from Bloomberg indicate that the one-month forward exchange rate discount for the yuan was 0.98 percent in mid-November, the biggest discount since December 2008. At the same time, its one-year non-deliverable forward contract price has also kept declining. Despite a slowed declining momentum recently, the yuan's non-deliverable forward contract price is still far below its spot exchange rate, and such a tendency is expected to continue.

What factors have been behind the recent drastic rise in the yuan's spot exchange rate and the opposite tendency in its forward exchange rates?

The increasing risk awareness following the launch of the second round of global quantitative easing has served as a direct external factor for the yuan's latest round of appreciation. In the face of a deteriorating sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone since the third quarter of this year and a lingering global economic slowdown, stagnation and even recession, all major countries have shifted the focus of policies and efforts to how to maintain economic growth.

In the context of soaring debt, central banks in major developed countries have begun an unprecedented race to loosen their monetary policies. After two rounds of long-term refinancing operations, the liabilities held by the European Central Bank have reached 3.2 trillion euros ($4.14 trillion), while the debt held by the US Federal Reserve has soared to $2.9 trillion. It is expected that the debts held by the ECB and the Federal Reserve will rocket even higher following the ECB's unlimited outright monetary transactions and the latter's open-ended third round of quantitative easing. Since the launch of a plan for purchasing assets, Japan's central bank has also raised the amount of such purchases nine consecutive times. The unrestrained monetary easing efforts by central banks in the world's developed countries have prompted the inrush of global liquidity to emerging economies as risk hedging.

Compared with developed countries, China's central bank, however, has chosen to inject liquidity into the market through reverse repurchases instead of using interest rate leverage. This has resulted in a much higher benchmark interest rate in China than comparable rates in the United States and offered chances for overseas funds to flow to China for arbitrage from the yuan-dollar interest rate gap. The influx of speculative capital to yuan-denominated assets has thus fueled its continuous appreciation.

The unreasonable distribution of China's overseas assets remains an important structural factor underlying the yuan's latest round of appreciation. Statistics indicate that China's net overseas assets reached $2 trillion, which was the $3.2 trillion reserve assets held by the government sectors minus the $1.2 trillion debt held by its nongovernment sector. The imbalanced assets and liabilities distribution between government and private sectors has left the possibility for drastic yuan exchange rate fluctuations at a time of drastic turbulences in the international financial market.

With a strong yuan against the dollar, most of China's import and export enterprises that previously used dollars for transactions have thus chosen to borrow dollars from banks instead of buying them. Such a practice will not only help them gain benefits from the yuan's higher interest rates but will also help them profit from the yuan's appreciation against the dollar. However, such a practice can also easily accelerate drastic fluctuations in the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar.

Due to increased wishes for exchange rate settlement among Chinese enterprises and residents with foreign transactions following expectations of a weak dollar amid the monetary easing by central banks in developed countries, the yuan has once again embarked on a trajectory of forced appreciation. This proves once again that China's government-tilted holding of overseas assets has amplified the risk of its exchange rate fluctuations.

Taking a longer perspective, the yuan is now within range of an equilibrium exchange rate. Data indicate that the yuan's real effective exchange rate has increased by 21 percent since 2005 when China initiated reform of the yuan's exchange rate regime for the second time. Its real effective exchange rate has also been 1.94 percent higher than its equilibrium exchange rate since 2010 when China relaunched such reforms. In this context, it will be difficult for the yuan to continue to maintain its strong appreciation tendency.

Future uncertainties surrounding the yuan's exchange rate now come from the outside world. If Europe fails to pull out of its lingering debt quagmire and the US falls over its "fiscal cliff", the global economy and financial market will plunge into turbulence. This would cause the dollar to become a risk-hedging choice again for overseas funds, which will unavoidably induce the yuan's depreciation.

The author is an economics researcher with the State Information Center.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    国产伦理精品不卡| 国产精品一区二区三区网站| 欧美精品亚洲一区二区在线播放| 三级欧美韩日大片在线看| 日韩一二三区不卡| 国产精品996| 亚洲欧美日韩小说| 欧美人狂配大交3d怪物一区| 久久精工是国产品牌吗| 欧美国产禁国产网站cc| 91国产视频在线观看| 日韩高清欧美激情| 久久久精品2019中文字幕之3| bt欧美亚洲午夜电影天堂| 亚洲一区欧美一区| 精品欧美乱码久久久久久| 成人亚洲精品久久久久软件| 亚洲一区二区在线观看视频| 精品人在线二区三区| 93久久精品日日躁夜夜躁欧美| 午夜久久久久久电影| 久久嫩草精品久久久久| 一本到不卡免费一区二区| 日韩中文字幕区一区有砖一区| 久久久精品2019中文字幕之3| 色香蕉久久蜜桃| 久久av资源站| 亚洲精品免费在线| 精品福利一区二区三区| 91蝌蚪porny| 久久激情五月激情| 尤物视频一区二区| 久久日一线二线三线suv| 日本韩国一区二区| 国产精品自拍三区| 亚洲国产精品综合小说图片区| 久久免费视频一区| 欧美图区在线视频| 风流少妇一区二区| 日本aⅴ精品一区二区三区 | 成人激情文学综合网| 午夜av一区二区三区| 国产欧美精品一区二区色综合| 欧美日本乱大交xxxxx| 国产不卡视频在线观看| 水野朝阳av一区二区三区| 国产精品久久久久一区二区三区共| 欧美人狂配大交3d怪物一区| av成人老司机| 国产尤物一区二区| 日韩av在线播放中文字幕| 亚洲人成精品久久久久久| 精品精品国产高清一毛片一天堂| 在线观看区一区二| 成人性色生活片免费看爆迷你毛片| 亚洲mv大片欧洲mv大片精品| 国产精品毛片久久久久久| 欧美v国产在线一区二区三区| 日本高清不卡aⅴ免费网站| 国产黄色成人av| 久久精品久久99精品久久| 亚洲一区二区3| 综合分类小说区另类春色亚洲小说欧美 | 亚洲精品乱码久久久久久久久 | 午夜精品久久久久久久久久久| 国产精品毛片久久久久久久| www久久精品| 日韩一区二区三区在线| 欧美在线不卡视频| 91麻豆高清视频| 成人激情免费视频| 国产传媒一区在线| 久久不见久久见免费视频7| 日韩—二三区免费观看av| 一区二区三区资源| 18涩涩午夜精品.www| 国产蜜臀97一区二区三区| 精品国产成人在线影院| 91精品国产91久久久久久最新毛片 | 欧美三级日本三级少妇99| 92精品国产成人观看免费| 豆国产96在线|亚洲| 国产乱对白刺激视频不卡| 免播放器亚洲一区| 免费成人在线播放| 日韩成人一区二区| 日韩福利视频网| 日本va欧美va精品| 青青草原综合久久大伊人精品优势| 亚洲第一福利一区| 亚洲综合免费观看高清完整版 | 久久99精品国产麻豆婷婷| 男女男精品视频| 日韩av成人高清| 日本免费在线视频不卡一不卡二| 婷婷久久综合九色综合绿巨人| 一区二区三区久久| 亚洲午夜久久久久| 亚洲成a人在线观看| 亚洲va在线va天堂| 日韩在线a电影| 蜜臀国产一区二区三区在线播放| 日本免费新一区视频| 麻豆视频一区二区| 久久91精品久久久久久秒播| 精品在线播放免费| 国产精品影音先锋| 从欧美一区二区三区| 成人性生交大合| 91麻豆产精品久久久久久| 欧美优质美女网站| 欧美日韩国产中文| 欧美一区二区三区思思人| 日韩一区二区免费高清| 欧美mv和日韩mv国产网站| 精品盗摄一区二区三区| 国产亚洲一区二区三区四区| 国产精品午夜在线| 亚洲欧美激情在线| 婷婷综合久久一区二区三区| 毛片av中文字幕一区二区| 国产精品一区二区果冻传媒| 波多野结衣在线一区| 色屁屁一区二区| 3d动漫精品啪啪一区二区竹菊 | 日韩视频国产视频| 国产欧美一二三区| 亚洲男女毛片无遮挡| 五月婷婷久久丁香| 狠狠色2019综合网| 不卡的看片网站| 欧美日韩一区二区三区在线看| 日韩一区二区三| 中文字幕免费不卡在线| 一区二区三区四区av| 美女爽到高潮91| 成人涩涩免费视频| 欧美吻胸吃奶大尺度电影| 精品久久一区二区| 国产精品国产三级国产三级人妇 | 大白屁股一区二区视频| 欧亚一区二区三区| 欧美videos大乳护士334| 中文字幕在线观看一区| 五月天视频一区| 国产精品18久久久久久vr| 色域天天综合网| 日韩视频免费观看高清在线视频| 国产精品丝袜黑色高跟| 亚洲1区2区3区视频| 国产一区二区三区日韩 | 欧美日韩亚洲综合在线| 精品国产髙清在线看国产毛片 | 国产一区二区三区美女| 色婷婷综合久久久久中文一区二区 | 欧美激情艳妇裸体舞| 亚洲一区二区不卡免费| 国产一区二区精品久久| 色婷婷精品久久二区二区蜜臂av| 日韩欧美国产综合一区 | 日韩欧美色综合网站| 中文字幕中文在线不卡住| 日韩高清一区在线| 91玉足脚交白嫩脚丫在线播放| 91麻豆精品国产91久久久久久| 欧美韩国日本不卡| 日韩国产高清影视| 91蝌蚪国产九色| 26uuu亚洲| 午夜免费久久看| gogogo免费视频观看亚洲一| 91精品国产高清一区二区三区蜜臀| 国产精品久久久一本精品| 免费成人av在线播放| 色婷婷综合激情| 国产视频不卡一区| 日韩黄色小视频| 91女厕偷拍女厕偷拍高清| 欧美精品一区二| 香蕉乱码成人久久天堂爱免费| 成人av资源在线观看| 欧美变态tickling挠脚心| 亚洲在线中文字幕| 成人黄色电影在线 | 成人午夜精品一区二区三区| 欧美一区午夜精品| 一区二区三区不卡视频| 风间由美一区二区av101| 日韩视频一区二区三区在线播放 | 亚洲视频免费在线| 国产乱国产乱300精品| 欧美一级爆毛片| 性感美女久久精品| 色噜噜夜夜夜综合网| 中文av一区特黄| 国产一区二区看久久| 日韩一区二区在线观看视频| 亚洲成a天堂v人片| 欧美亚洲国产一卡| 亚洲美女精品一区|