久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / View

Housing still on unsustainable path

China Daily | Updated: 2013-02-28 17:31

The deceleration in China's economy last year was mainly because of a slowdown in property construction that was triggered by a tightening of policy controls on the sector. Developers deferred new construction projects and slowed or stalled many that were already under way. China's property sector is big enough to have repercussions around the world as orders for iron ore, copper and construction equipment dried up. But it was China's economy that bore the brunt of the impact. Last year's GDP growth was the weakest in more than a decade, according to official figures, and roughly two-thirds of the slowdown from the year before was directly due to the weakness in property.

So has the time come for the government to start thinking of relaxing its property market controls? And if now is not the moment for them to be relaxed, how long should we expect the controls to remain in place?

Relaxation of the controls, the most important of which are limits on purchases and on lending to developers and homebuyers, would be widely welcomed. Developers would benefit most but, as they restart projects in anticipation of a pick-up in sales, the gains would spread, including to the rest of the world. China's local governments would also be big winners. For many of them, the sale of land for housing development is a key source of revenue.

The case that the controls have served their purpose is straightforward. Public discontent with the level of property prices has abated significantly since the first round of controls was introduced nearly three years ago. Prices might only have levelled off rather than fallen in most places but, with incomes still rising fast, that has been enough to make the average home much more affordable.

The demand for new property is set to soar. China's urban population is likely to increase by nearly 200 million this decade, according to the United Nations. There is also substantial unmet demand from earlier waves of migrants, many of them still sleeping in dormitories and cramped workplace accommodations. Then there are the ranks of aging residential buildings that will soon need to be replaced.

All told, China's towns and cities are likely to need around 10 million new residential properties each year over the coming decade to meet this structural increase in demand. That is the equivalent of building the entire housing stock of the United Kingdom, Germany and France combined, or two-thirds of the housing stock of the US in just 10 years.

Given this, the answer to the question above might seem straightforward: There is no time to waste, so relax the controls. But that would be wrong.

In fact, despite the policy-induced slowdown in activity, the Chinese property market remains on a wildly unsustainable path. Developers actually completed some 11 million properties last year. In other words, even in the sector's most difficult year on record, developers still managed to build more than enough properties to meet the year's increase in underlying demand. More alarming is that the number of completions rose for a sixth year in a row.

If completions continue rising at the recent rate, in five years the building sites of China will be turning out 19 million new properties each year. Barring some unforeseen surge in the pace of urbanization, that would leave a colossal glut of housing that could only be sold if prices collapsed.

You might wonder whether that would actually happen. Wouldn't the property industry, seeing that supply was on course to outstrip demand, shift direction of its own accord? Perhaps it would. But there are many reasons not to be sure. Plenty of industries in China have gone through waves of boom and bust in recent years.

Those that have, such as automakers and steel smelters, share many characteristics with the real estate sector. They each had countless small players in the boom years, all trying to raise their market share. There were long lags between the launch of investment projects and their completion so that today's market supply conditions proved an unreliable guide to the future.

The difference is that, because of its size, a collapse in the property sector would have wrenching implications for the whole of China's economy and beyond.

The upshot is that the correction needed to return China's property sector to a sustainable path has barely started. Not only is now not the time for policymakers to be thinking of loosening the property market controls, but that moment is still probably years away.

The author is chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, a London-based independent macroeconomic research consultancy.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    亚洲成年人专区| 人妻丰满熟妇av无码区app| 高清在线观看免费| 亚洲久久中文字幕| 欧美精品久久久久久久自慰| 亚洲36d大奶网| 国产3p露脸普通话对白| 日本成人xxx| 北条麻妃视频在线| 日本黄色片一级片| 日韩在线一区视频| 国产亚洲精品网站| 日韩精品久久一区二区| 婷婷六月天在线| 亚洲自偷自拍熟女另类| 欧美 国产 精品| 999这里有精品| 亚洲性生活网站| 欧美变态另类刺激| 日韩精品一区二区在线视频| 国产高清av片| 亚洲狼人综合干| 日韩精品一区二区三区久久| 日本黄大片在线观看| 香蕉视频色在线观看| 奇米影视四色在线| 国产超碰在线播放| 国产在线青青草| 国产在线精品91| 欧美在线一区视频| 国产精品久久国产| 亚洲国产一二三精品无码| 欧美又黄又嫩大片a级| 性刺激的欧美三级视频| 久久久久免费精品| 国产熟女高潮视频| 欧美色图色综合| 成人一对一视频| 黄色片网址在线观看| 欧日韩免费视频| 人妻少妇精品无码专区二区| 国产曰肥老太婆无遮挡| 99在线观看视频免费| wwwjizzjizzcom| 国产免费一区二区三区四在线播放| 天堂在线一区二区三区| 99日在线视频| 999在线精品视频| 亚洲av无日韩毛片久久| 久久婷婷中文字幕| 五月天六月丁香| 永久免费网站视频在线观看| 最新av网址在线观看| 51xx午夜影福利| 97超碰国产精品| 免费一级特黄毛片| 国产成人无码一二三区视频| 欧美在线观看视频网站| 美女网站视频黄色| 又色又爽又黄视频| 无码人妻精品一区二区三区99v| 毛片在线视频观看| 欧美深夜福利视频| 国产精品-区区久久久狼| 亚洲色图38p| 亚洲热在线视频| 欧美图片激情小说| 青青草原av在线播放| 一区二区xxx| 国产三级中文字幕| 免费高清一区二区三区| 国产精品视频一区二区三区四区五区| www黄色在线| 国产毛片久久久久久| 无码人妻精品一区二区蜜桃网站| 九色在线视频观看| 在线观看亚洲色图| 在线视频一二三区| 国产精品宾馆在线精品酒店| 蜜臀av免费观看| 三级在线免费观看| 精品一卡二卡三卡| 国产成人在线综合| r级无码视频在线观看| 8x8x最新地址| 少妇久久久久久被弄到高潮| 国产黄色片免费在线观看| 国产精品入口免费软件| 日韩人妻精品一区二区三区| 欧美极品欧美精品欧美| a在线观看免费视频| 法国空姐在线观看免费| www黄色av| 午夜久久久久久久久久久| 国产成人无码一二三区视频| 三日本三级少妇三级99| 国产精品裸体瑜伽视频| 57pao国产成永久免费视频| www.好吊操| 污版视频在线观看| 国产情侣第一页| 亚洲欧美aaa| 国产特级淫片高清视频| caoporm在线视频| 黄色片视频在线免费观看| 午夜免费视频网站| 好男人www社区| 国产美女主播在线| 国产精品999.| av无码精品一区二区三区| 17c丨国产丨精品视频| 欧美午夜aaaaaa免费视频| 日韩美女爱爱视频| 99九九精品视频| 日韩中文字幕免费在线| 国产免费一区二区视频| 国产精品嫩草影视| 国产免费视频传媒| 欧美成人高潮一二区在线看| 亚洲精品在线网址| www.天天射.com| 国产aaa一级片| 18黄暴禁片在线观看| youjizz.com亚洲| 免费看国产黄色片| 男人操女人免费软件| www.av91| 国产午夜精品视频一区二区三区| 国内外成人免费在线视频| 北条麻妃69av| 2018中文字幕第一页| 超碰在线免费观看97| 亚洲 国产 图片| 亚洲免费一级视频| 激情综合网俺也去| 日本在线观看a| 免费毛片小视频| 久久久999免费视频| 国产一区二区三区乱码| 国内外成人激情免费视频| 亚洲18在线看污www麻豆| wwwwww.色| 国产福利视频在线播放| 可以在线看的av网站| 日本a在线免费观看| 国产一线二线三线女| 97中文字幕在线| 精品丰满人妻无套内射| 日韩精品久久一区二区| 国产91在线亚洲| 女人色极品影院| www插插插无码免费视频网站| 青青视频免费在线| 毛片在线视频观看| 日韩激情视频一区二区| 黄色三级中文字幕| 日韩网站在线免费观看| 人妻无码久久一区二区三区免费| 丰满少妇大力进入| 霍思燕三级露全乳照| 3d动漫一区二区三区| 777精品久无码人妻蜜桃| 国产特级黄色大片| 国产麻花豆剧传媒精品mv在线| 国产精品99久久免费黑人人妻| www国产黄色| 香蕉视频网站入口| 国产欧美一区二| 国产av第一区| 岛国大片在线播放| 成人免费观看视频在线观看| 国产裸体免费无遮挡| 欧美伦理片在线观看| 手机精品视频在线| 国产精品啪啪啪视频| 精品国偷自产一区二区三区| 欧美大片在线播放| 中文字幕乱码人妻综合二区三区| 久久久久久久少妇| 亚洲一二三av| 日韩在线视频在线| 欧美性大战久久久久xxx| 五月婷婷丁香综合网| 色网站在线视频| 国产一区 在线播放| 丰满人妻中伦妇伦精品app | 日本一道本久久| 精品免费国产一区二区| 视频二区在线播放| avove在线观看| 日本三级免费网站| 男人的天堂最新网址| 男人天堂新网址| 亚洲乱码国产一区三区| 日本在线观看视频一区| 精品国产一区二区三区无码| 免费大片在线观看| 秋霞在线一区二区| 人妻少妇被粗大爽9797pw| 天天摸天天舔天天操|