久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Deflationary pressures prompt another rate cut

By Wang Tao (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2015-03-02 11:06

People's Bank of China cut benchmark rates by another 25 basis points, bringing the one-year benchmark lending rate to 5.35 percent and the one-year benchmark deposit rate to 2.5 percent, effective from March 1. Meanwhile, as another move towards interest rate liberalization, PBOC has lifted China's deposit rate ceiling further from 1.2 times of benchmark to 1.3 times.

The move came as no surprise following the particularly weak prints of January inflation, and another soft reading expected for February. Both CPI and PPI slipped to a 5-year low in January, to 0.8 percent year-on-year and negative 4.3 percent year-on-year respectively.

Although the shifting timing of Chinese New Year was to blame, underlying sequential momentum of core inflation (e.g., seasonally and CNY adjusted 3-month growth) did sink to the slowest pace since the global financial crisis. We expect February inflation will not have rebounded above 1 percent, adding further deflationary concerns.

The decline in inflation has rapidly pushed up real interest rate. The average of CPI and PPI has dropped substantially by 170 bps since Q4 2014 and 250 bps during the past 6 months, while the nominal interest rate has remained sticky despite the November rate cut, with average bank lending rates edging down only around 20 bps and our estimated overall financial cost barely moving. As a result, the real rate has moved up by +100 bps since Q4 2014 according to our estimation.

Deflationary pressures prompt another rate cut

Rapid increase in real interest rates means a tightening of monetary conditions, which stands in sharp contrast with softening real activity growth. Moreover, financial burden on the corporate sector has been aggravated. With industrial profit growth already mired in recession (total profit decreased 6 percent year-on-year and principal business profit fell 9 percent year-on-year in Q4 last year), risks are quickly building up at the financial system, prompting more monetary accommodation to mitigate massive tightening and contain financial risk.

PBOC has clearly become more concerned about deflationary pressure in recent weeks, as reflected in the latest monetary policy report and two PBOC research articles warning against deflationary pressures.

This cut in the benchmark rate should help lower the lending rate charged by banks, though the 25bps cut may not be passed through entirely since the ceiling on deposit rates are raised again, which effectively means an asymmetric rate cut and could squeeze banks' interest margin. The rate move can also help anchor inflation expectations before deflationary forces become entrenched. The resulting drop in real interest rates should help mitigate the worsening financial burden for the real economy and reduce the negative pressure on banks' asset quality, thereby containing financial risks.

Further monetary easing is still needed

Although one rate cut is helpful at the margin, it is insufficient to offset the passive tightening of monetary conditions so far, in our view. As highlighted in our earlier report, we think the PBOC should cut benchmark lending rates by 100 bps this year to keep real rates from rising, but expect the PBOC to only cut 50-75 bps. Therefore, more monetary accommodation is still warranted. The next rate cut could come in Q2 following persistent deflationary pressure and weak activity data.

In addition to the rate cut, we also believe the central bank need to cut RRR and use liquidity operations to help offset the drop in foreign exchange related liquidity, and ease loan quota and other lending restrictions.

To better support growth, we believe fiscal easing, relaxation of property policies (including cut of down payment requirement and transaction related taxes), and pro-growth reforms are likely in 2015, and see these measures to be more effective than monetary easing.

This article is co-authored with Harrison Hu, both UBS economists. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    国产成人免费视频| 欧美视频自拍偷拍| 亚洲日本青草视频在线怡红院 | 精品午夜久久福利影院 | 亚洲精品日韩一| 欧美久久久影院| 久久99国产精品久久| 中文字幕va一区二区三区| 色哟哟一区二区在线观看| 午夜精品爽啪视频| 久久久久久久综合| 91免费视频观看| 日韩国产欧美在线观看| 亚洲精品一区二区三区精华液| 福利一区二区在线观看| 亚洲黄色在线视频| 日韩免费电影一区| 成人av高清在线| 日韩主播视频在线| 欧美激情中文字幕一区二区| 欧日韩精品视频| 国产一区视频网站| 亚洲精品欧美综合四区| 欧美成人乱码一区二区三区| 99久久777色| 日韩成人精品在线观看| 中文字幕高清不卡| 欧美精品丝袜中出| 成人精品亚洲人成在线| 午夜久久久久久久久久一区二区| 久久久欧美精品sm网站| 在线亚洲精品福利网址导航| 精品在线播放午夜| 一区二区三区在线观看动漫| 欧美精品一区二区精品网| 91亚洲精品一区二区乱码| 麻豆91精品视频| 亚洲欧美色图小说| 欧美成人午夜电影| 欧美在线色视频| 国产经典欧美精品| 视频一区免费在线观看| 国产精品乱码久久久久久| 正在播放一区二区| 色噜噜狠狠成人中文综合| 国模冰冰炮一区二区| 午夜精品123| 亚洲男人的天堂在线观看| 久久综合九色欧美综合狠狠| 欧美图区在线视频| 成人一区二区视频| 久久精品72免费观看| 亚洲国产人成综合网站| 中文字幕一区二区三区不卡 | 欧美日韩精品二区第二页| 丁香天五香天堂综合| 免费观看91视频大全| 亚洲最新在线观看| 国产精品久久久久久久久免费丝袜 | 国产精品1区2区3区在线观看| 五月婷婷综合激情| 亚洲日本欧美天堂| 亚洲国产精品激情在线观看| 精品噜噜噜噜久久久久久久久试看| 欧美视频在线不卡| 91老师片黄在线观看| 国产凹凸在线观看一区二区| 毛片av一区二区| 肉肉av福利一精品导航| 亚洲精品大片www| 国产精品乱码人人做人人爱| 久久久亚洲精品石原莉奈| 日韩欧美亚洲另类制服综合在线| 欧美日韩专区在线| 日本韩国欧美在线| 99久久精品免费看| 国产91富婆露脸刺激对白| 国模冰冰炮一区二区| 久久国产三级精品| 日韩电影在线观看电影| 亚洲成av人片一区二区梦乃| 夜夜嗨av一区二区三区网页 | 亚洲嫩草精品久久| 日韩美女精品在线| 中文字幕制服丝袜一区二区三区| 久久精品亚洲精品国产欧美| 久久亚洲影视婷婷| 久久综合久久久久88| 精品奇米国产一区二区三区| 91精品国产综合久久香蕉的特点| 欧美日韩一区三区| 欧美在线短视频| 欧美视频一区在线观看| 欧美日精品一区视频| 欧美日韩在线三级| 欧美性欧美巨大黑白大战| 欧美性做爰猛烈叫床潮| 欧美最新大片在线看| 欧美日韩在线不卡| 制服丝袜中文字幕亚洲| 91精品国产综合久久香蕉麻豆| 在线综合视频播放| 日韩亚洲欧美中文三级| 日韩午夜激情免费电影| 欧美大片一区二区| 亚洲精品在线免费观看视频| 久久久亚洲精品一区二区三区 | 国产欧美日韩视频一区二区| 欧美极品另类videosde| 国产精品美女久久久久久久久久久 | 在线看不卡av| 欧美天堂亚洲电影院在线播放| 欧美色图第一页| 欧美一级午夜免费电影| 精品日产卡一卡二卡麻豆| 久久精品人人做人人综合| 国产精品欧美久久久久无广告| 中文字幕一区二区三区色视频| 尤物av一区二区| 午夜av一区二区三区| 六月丁香婷婷久久| 国产精品原创巨作av| 99久久综合狠狠综合久久| 91国在线观看| 91.com视频| 久久婷婷国产综合国色天香| 国产精品久久三区| 一区二区欧美视频| 日本亚洲三级在线| 国产精品亚洲а∨天堂免在线| 成人福利视频网站| 日本高清不卡aⅴ免费网站| 欧美猛男男办公室激情| 精品久久久久久亚洲综合网 | 国产精品久久久一区麻豆最新章节| 亚洲特级片在线| 亚洲1区2区3区视频| 精品亚洲国产成人av制服丝袜 | 亚洲国产视频网站| 精品伊人久久久久7777人| 成人午夜视频免费看| 欧美视频一区在线| 2020国产精品久久精品美国| 国产精品灌醉下药二区| 香蕉久久一区二区不卡无毒影院| 蜜桃视频免费观看一区| 成人一区在线看| 欧美剧情片在线观看| 日本一区二区三区电影| 亚洲午夜影视影院在线观看| 国内久久婷婷综合| 色猫猫国产区一区二在线视频| 日韩一区二区三区免费观看| 国产精品乱码一区二三区小蝌蚪| 性欧美大战久久久久久久久| 国产一区视频网站| 欧美性色aⅴ视频一区日韩精品| 精品福利av导航| 一区二区三区在线免费视频| 精品一区二区三区免费毛片爱| 99精品国产视频| 精品免费国产二区三区| 亚洲欧美一区二区三区久本道91 | 国产亚洲欧洲997久久综合 | 日韩丝袜情趣美女图片| 成人欧美一区二区三区1314 | 日本国产一区二区| 久久综合久久鬼色中文字| 亚洲一级二级在线| 福利视频网站一区二区三区| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉超级流畅| 欧美激情中文不卡| 免费成人在线网站| 色婷婷av一区二区三区软件| 久久蜜桃av一区二区天堂 | 欧洲人成人精品| 欧美国产综合一区二区| 美女视频免费一区| 欧美性淫爽ww久久久久无| 国产精品天天看| 久久精品99久久久| 欧美午夜片在线看| 国产精品久久夜| 国产一区在线视频| 欧美精品aⅴ在线视频| 亚洲免费视频中文字幕| 国产成人精品免费网站| 日韩免费在线观看| 亚洲高清在线精品| 色综合天天性综合| 中文字幕国产一区| 国产一区在线不卡| 日韩视频一区二区三区在线播放| 一区二区三区精品视频在线| thepron国产精品| 久久亚洲二区三区| 裸体歌舞表演一区二区| 欧美日本一道本在线视频| 亚洲精品网站在线观看| 成人深夜福利app|