Inflation may hold close to two-year high

    (Bloomberg)
    Updated: 2007-02-12 09:14

    The following tables show economists' estimates for percentage changes in China's consumer and producer prices and M2 money supply in January from a year earlier.

    China CPI Forecasts
    --------------------------------
    CPI
    Firm YoY%
    --------------------------------
    Median 2.6%
    Average 2.5%
    High 3.0%
    Low 1.8%
    Number of Forecasts 22
    --------------------------------
    ANZ Bank 2.8%
    Bank of America 2.9%
    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 2.6%
    Bank of East Asia 2.5%
    Capital Economics 2.6%
    CFC Seymour 2.8%
    CIMB-GK Research 2.7%
    Citic Securities 2.6%
    Core Pacific-Yamaichi 2.5%
    Deutsche Bank 2.5%
    Forecast Ltd. 3.0%
    Hang Seng Bank 1.9%
    HSBC 2.5%
    Industrial Bank 3.0%
    ING Groep NV 2.5%
    JPMorgan Chase 2.8%
    Lehman Brothers 1.9%
    Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 2.1%
    Morgan Stanley 1.8%
    Royal Bank of Scotland 2.9%
    Standard Chartered Bank 2.9%
    Thomson IFR 2.2%
    --------------------------------

    China Money Supply Forecast
    --------------------------------
    M2
    YoY%
    --------------------------------
    Median 16.5
    Average 16.4
    High 17.0
    Low 15.0
    Number of replies 21
    ---------------------------------
    ANZ Bank 15.8
    Bank of America 17.0
    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 15.8
    Bank of East Asia 16.7
    Capital Economics 16.5
    CFC Seymour 16.2
    CIMB-GK Research 16.5
    Citic Securities 16.7
    Core Pacific-Yamaichi 16.3
    Deutsche Bank 15.0
    Forecast Ltd. 15.5
    Hang Seng Bank 16.5
    SBC 16.7
    Industrial Bank 17.0
    ING Groep NV 16.1
    JPMorgan Chase 16.2
    Lehman Brothers 17.0
    Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 16.4
    Royal Bank of Scotland 17.0
    Standard Chartered Bank 16.9
    Thomson IFR 16.2
    --------------------------------

    China PPI Forecasts
    --------------------------------
    PPI
    Firm YoY%
    --------------------------------
    Median 3.0%
    Average 3.0%
    High 3.6%
    Low 2.0%
    Number of Forecasts 18
    --------------------------------
    ANZ Bank 2.9%
    Bank of America 3.0%
    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 3.0%
    Bank of East Asia 3.2%
    Capital Economics 3.2%
    CFC Seymour 3.0%
    CIMB-GK Research 2.9%
    Citic Securities 3.0%
    Core Pacific-Yamaichi 3.0%
    Deutsche Bank 3.2%
    Forecast Ltd. 2.0%
    HSBC 3.2%
    Industrial Bank 3.2%
    ING Groep NV 3.0%
    JPMorgan Chase 3.2%
    Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3.6%
    Royal Bank of Scotland 3.0%
    Standard Chartered Bank 3.2%


     12


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