久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

   
  home feedback about us  
   
CHINAGATE.OPINION.Trade    
Agriculture  
Education&HR  
Energy  
Environment  
Finance  
Legislation  
Macro economy  
Population  
Private economy  
SOEs  
Sci-Tech  
Social security  
Telecom  
Trade  
Transportation  
Rural development  
Urban development  
     
     
 
 
Trade frictions result of US savings shortfall


2006-03-23
China Daily

The economic relationship between the United States and China could well be the world's most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century. And it's not going well. The stresses and strains of globalization have added considerable tension to the interplay.

The risks of trade frictions and protectionist actions are mounting. Perhaps more importantly, a corrosive sense of mistrust is building between the United States and China that if left unattended could result in both nations, to say nothing of the broader global economy, squandering enormous opportunities in the years ahead. It's time for a wake-up call before it's too late.

The United States is flirting with protectionism at a time when its need for foreign capital has never been greater. At work is a highly combustible mixture of macro and politics. America's saving shortfall has led to a massive trade deficit, and China happens to account for the biggest portion of that deficit. Meanwhile, a growing sense of angst has gripped the middle-class American workers. This has triggered a classic political blame game, with China being increasingly singled out as the scapegoat. The drumbeat of China bashing is growing louder and louder.

There is a very simple and extremely powerful macro point that is being overlooked in this debate: America no longer has the internal wherewithal to fund the rapid growth of its economy. Suffering from the greatest domestic saving shortfall in modern history, the United States is increasingly dependent on surplus foreign saving to fill the void. The net national saving rate  the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector after adjusting for depreciation  fell into negative territory to the tune of -1.2 per cent of national income in late 2005. That means America doesn't save enough even to cover the replacement of its worn-out capital stock. This is a first for the United States in the modern post-World War II era, and I believe a first for any great power over a much longer sweep of world history.

Faced with a shortfall of domestic saving, countries basically have two choices to curtail economic growth or borrow from the rest of the world. The first option just doesn't cut it in the land of abundance.

America, in general, and its consumers, in particular, treat rapid economic growth as an entitlement. That leaves the United States with little choice other than to pursue the second option - drawing heavily on the global saving pool in order to fund economic growth. Once the United States started down the slippery path of consuming beyond its internal means, it got harder and harder to break the habit. Ironically, it has become exceedingly difficult for Washington to accept the consequences of that habit - a nation that has become beholden both to external funding and production. And yet that's exactly how China fits into America's macro equation.

That underscores a key attribute of the savings-short, deficit nation: It is forced to run current account deficits in order to attract the requisite foreign capital. And in the case of the United States, where external funding needs are so massive - now closing in on US$800 billion per year, or about US$3 billion per business day - most of the current account imbalance shows up in the form of a huge trade deficit. In 2005, the trade deficit in goods and services accounted for fully 93 per cent of the total current-account gap.

With that external funding imperative come key geopolitical tradeoffs. Thanks to China, America actually got a rather extraordinary deal for its trade deficit dollar in 2005  a net balance of some US$200 billion of low-cost, high-quality Chinese goods that expanded the purchasing power of US consumers. If, however, Washington politicians now choose to close down trade with China by imposing high tariffs or forcing a major Chinese currency revaluation - precisely the intent of legislation proposed by US Senators Schumer and Graham - those actions could easily backfire.

Remove the China supply line, and the trade deficit for a saving-short US economy won't shrink as populist politicians suggest. Instead, due to America's oversized external funding needs, the trade deficit would remain large and merely gravitate to another foreign producer - most likely, one with a higher cost structure. Such a shift in America's external sourcing would amount to the functional equivalent of a tax on the American consumer.

The current political boil raises a critical question: Can a savings-short US select its lenders as well as dictate the terms of its external financing needs? The simple answer to the first part of the question is, "yes" - targeted protectionist actions can, indeed, redirect the sources of external commerce and funding.

Through the Schumer-Graham tariffs, the US could tilt the mix of its trade patterns away from China.

Such actions would do nothing, however, to address the basic problem. As long as the US economy is locked on a sub-par domestic saving path, it is hooked increasingly on the "kindness of strangers" to provide the sustenance of its economic growth - both in terms of foreign-made goods as well as financial capital.

Country-specific protectionist actions would "succeed" only in shifting America's trade deficit and concomitant capital surplus elsewhere in the world.

There's an even darker side to the recent protectionist backlash in the United States - the crass politics of scapegoating. The ongoing angst of middle-class American workers has become a political football -even with the national unemployment rate below 5 per cent. It's not hard to figure out why. A US labour market that was once trapped in a jobless recovery is now mired in a wageless recovery - generating an extraordinary stagnation of real wages even in the face of strong productivity growth. At the same time, the United States is suffering from a record trade deficit, whose largest bilateral piece is with China. That's all it takes for politicians to point the finger at China as being responsible for the trade-related pressures bearing down on beleaguered US workers. With mid-term elections looming in the United States, I suspect this protectionist posturing could well intensify in the months ahead.

But who is really to blame in all this? At the end of the day, America's saving shortfall - the origin of potentially destabilizing capital and trade flows - is a by-product of conscious choices made by the US body politic. The Federal budget deficit, which has accounted for the bulk of the plunge in national saving over the past six years, is made in Washington  not in Beijing. The negative personal saving rate is partly an outgrowth of pro-consumption tax policies  again, made in Washington. America's elected representatives are the source of resistance to tax reforms, such as a consumption tax, that might address the deficiencies of private saving. Of course, politicians never want to admit that they are the problem.

Instead, they prefer to pin the blame on others  in this case, China. Or Dubai, in the case of the recent political firestorm over its proposed acquisition of East Coast shipping facilities.

Meanwhile, the United States does next to nothing to shoulder its share of the problem  a staggering shortfall of domestic savings. Such political posturing is a recipe for serious trouble, in my view.

The author Stephen S. Roach is Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley. This is an excerpt from his speech at the China Development Forum in Beijing on March 19-20.

 
 
     
  print  
     
  go to forum  
     
     
 
home feedback about us  
  Produced by www.ttav89.com. All Rights Reserved
E-mail: webmaster@chinagate.com.cn
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    一本一道波多野结衣一区二区| 成人激情黄色小说| 欧美一区午夜视频在线观看| 婷婷亚洲久悠悠色悠在线播放| 欧美在线观看视频一区二区三区| 有码一区二区三区| 欧美色视频在线观看| 日韩电影在线一区二区三区| 欧美一区二区视频在线观看| 卡一卡二国产精品 | 国产拍揄自揄精品视频麻豆| 国产精品自在欧美一区| 国产精品免费av| 91视频国产资源| 亚洲自拍都市欧美小说| 9191久久久久久久久久久| 另类小说综合欧美亚洲| 国产亚洲欧美色| 国产成人免费在线视频| 国产精品日韩成人| 欧美无砖专区一中文字| 蜜臀av一级做a爰片久久| 日韩一区二区三区在线| 国产丶欧美丶日本不卡视频| 136国产福利精品导航| 色综合久久九月婷婷色综合| 午夜视频一区二区| 久久综合给合久久狠狠狠97色69| www.av精品| 亚洲综合色网站| 日韩精品一区二区三区视频| 成人黄色大片在线观看| 亚洲一二三四在线| 久久综合九色综合欧美就去吻| 成人精品视频一区二区三区尤物| 亚洲综合激情网| 欧美日韩成人一区二区| 国产精品99精品久久免费| 一区二区三区在线视频观看58| 91精品欧美一区二区三区综合在| 国产一区二区三区蝌蚪| 亚洲精品欧美专区| 日韩欧美成人午夜| 91香蕉视频在线| 蜜桃精品在线观看| 国产精品高潮久久久久无| 正在播放一区二区| av一区二区不卡| 日本成人中文字幕在线视频| 国产精品欧美一区二区三区| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉 | 日韩视频免费观看高清完整版 | 国内精品免费**视频| 国产精品理论片| 日韩一区二区视频在线观看| 99视频精品在线| 国产乱码字幕精品高清av | 精品一区免费av| 亚洲永久精品国产| 亚洲欧洲日韩综合一区二区| 久久午夜老司机| 欧美一区二区三区影视| 欧美亚洲动漫精品| av亚洲精华国产精华精华| 国产综合成人久久大片91| 亚洲成a人片在线观看中文| 成人欧美一区二区三区白人 | 亚洲一区二区四区蜜桃| 国产精品护士白丝一区av| 久久亚洲精华国产精华液| 欧美一区二区在线观看| 欧美视频一区二| 91尤物视频在线观看| 国产大陆亚洲精品国产| 久久99久久99| 日韩激情一二三区| 午夜久久久久久电影| 一区二区三区在线视频观看58| 国产精品久99| 国产精品沙发午睡系列990531| 久久嫩草精品久久久精品| 日韩欧美视频在线| 欧美一级电影网站| 欧美狂野另类xxxxoooo| 欧美私模裸体表演在线观看| 色伊人久久综合中文字幕| 91捆绑美女网站| 99精品视频中文字幕| 不卡一区二区在线| 成人av电影免费在线播放| 国产激情精品久久久第一区二区 | 菠萝蜜视频在线观看一区| 丁香天五香天堂综合| 国产丶欧美丶日本不卡视频| 狠狠久久亚洲欧美| 国产一区二区三区免费看| 国产麻豆一精品一av一免费 | 国内精品伊人久久久久av一坑| 麻豆精品一区二区av白丝在线| 日韩电影免费在线观看网站| 日本强好片久久久久久aaa| 日韩电影免费一区| 久久福利资源站| 国产一区二区三区美女| 国产一区二区日韩精品| 国产福利91精品| 成人av在线电影| 色综合一区二区| 欧美视频中文字幕| 4438成人网| 精品日产卡一卡二卡麻豆| 精品不卡在线视频| 久久亚洲影视婷婷| 国产精品萝li| 亚洲精品欧美在线| 五月综合激情网| 美女看a上一区| 国产精品1区2区| 99麻豆久久久国产精品免费优播| 色中色一区二区| 欧美福利视频一区| 久久综合九色综合久久久精品综合| 国产三级精品视频| **欧美大码日韩| 亚洲成人av资源| 久久精品国产一区二区三区免费看| 国产乱人伦精品一区二区在线观看| 高清不卡一区二区在线| 色综合久久精品| 欧美精品成人一区二区三区四区| 精品区一区二区| 国产欧美精品一区二区色综合 | 日本大胆欧美人术艺术动态| 国产在线视频精品一区| 白白色亚洲国产精品| 在线观看欧美黄色| 欧美一区二区视频网站| 国产日韩欧美精品综合| 亚洲欧美视频在线观看| 日韩不卡一区二区| 国产一区二区三区国产| 色综合久久久久综合体| 91精品国产一区二区三区| 国产午夜精品久久久久久免费视| 亚洲欧美中日韩| 日韩经典中文字幕一区| 国产成人综合在线播放| 欧洲亚洲国产日韩| 日韩女优视频免费观看| 国产精品久久久久久久久图文区 | 久久精品国产亚洲高清剧情介绍| 福利视频网站一区二区三区| 91高清在线观看| 欧美变态凌虐bdsm| 亚洲欧洲日产国产综合网| 日日夜夜精品视频免费| 大尺度一区二区| 欧美日韩色综合| 国产午夜精品一区二区| 亚洲国产成人va在线观看天堂| 国产真实乱子伦精品视频| 在线免费观看一区| 2023国产精品| 亚洲成人免费av| 成人高清视频在线观看| 欧美一级生活片| 亚洲人成人一区二区在线观看| 久久精品99久久久| 色丁香久综合在线久综合在线观看| 精品奇米国产一区二区三区| 一区二区三区成人| 国产成人免费视频一区| 欧美另类z0zxhd电影| 国产精品美女久久久久久| 蜜臀va亚洲va欧美va天堂 | 欧美疯狂做受xxxx富婆| 中文在线资源观看网站视频免费不卡| 婷婷六月综合网| 99久久精品国产一区| 久久综合狠狠综合久久激情| 亚洲福利视频一区| eeuss鲁一区二区三区| 精品国产乱码久久久久久图片 | 成人黄色在线看| 欧美岛国在线观看| 一区二区三区小说| 成人国产精品视频| 久久综合国产精品| 日韩国产欧美三级| 在线观看成人小视频| 中文字幕不卡在线观看| 经典一区二区三区| 91精品福利在线一区二区三区 | eeuss鲁一区二区三区| 久久综合给合久久狠狠狠97色69| 日日夜夜一区二区| 欧美影院午夜播放| 亚洲免费在线视频| eeuss国产一区二区三区| 久久久不卡网国产精品一区|