Meaning of the Crimea crisis

The referendum in Crimea, the evolving situation in Ukraine and Russia's proactive foreign policy will have a far-reaching impact on international relations. New facts have been established in Eastern Europe. Ukraine does not recognize the referendum and will not agree to Crimea becoming a part of Russia, nor will the United States and most members of the international community. But no country will attempt to physically challenge it.

Instability in Ukraine will continue, and the country's future shape, constitution and international affiliations are wide open at this point. Eastern and southern regions of Ukraine that are home to huge numbers of ethnic Russians will, supported by Russia, continue to demand more autonomy from Kiev. Ukraine's ailing economy will seek more financial support, which the West cannot ignore. The US and the European Union, on one hand, and Russia, on the other, will compete hard and long for the former Soviet republic.

The Baltic states, Poland, Romania and other Central and Eastern European countries, now embedded in the EU and NATO, will seek additional military and diplomatic protection from the US. They are likely to receive some notional US deployments to the region in the form of ballistic missile defense systems, air and sea patrols, and military exercises.