Shortages may continue for two more years
( 2003-12-02 00:11) (China Daily)
After frequent blackouts during summer in half the nation, the country now has to struggle to keep up with the surging electricity consumption in winter.
And the chronic power shortages in some areas are likely to continue for at least two years, say some experts.
Eight provinces and regions, including the booming areas of Guangdong Province and Shanghai, were saddled with a stark shortage of power when electricity consumption spiked after temperatures dropped.
Aside from rising demand, experts also attributed the power shortage to drought and a deficient coal supply.
They also said shortages will become worse next year, when the increase of electricity supply is anticipated to lag behind projected growth by about 10 per cent.
Since November, some areas in East, Southeast, Central and South China have had to switch off the electricity from time to time to prevent the grid from crashing.
Central China's Hunan Province, for instance, has rationed electricity in 14 areas, affecting thousands of businesses and residents.
The province's electricity supply is about 20 million kilowatts short of what it needs, statistics indicate.
The electricity-pinched Zhejiang and Fujian provinces have seldom stopped turning off the electricity since the summer.
Wu Jingru, an expert with the State Development Bank, blamed the supply shortfall in hydropower-heavy areas, such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Hunan and Hubei provinces and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on a lack of water in reservoirs.
The dry winter has forced hydro plants to reduce the electricity output, said Wu.
In Sichuan, hydro makes up two-thirds of the electricity generated in the province. But when water levels fall to one-third of what they are in summer, the coal-fired plants in the province alone can not meet the demand.
Wu also pointed to a surging demand in East China regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai as the major reason for electricity shortages.
"The demand in winter used to be 10-15 per cent down from the peak in summer,'' said Wu. "But when the rapid growth surged by 18 per cent this summer, the areas had problems satisfying the demand.''
Zhao Zunlian, general engineer of the State Grid Corp, said insufficient coal supply also takes the toll.
The coal supply has shrunk as the government has stepped up efforts to shut down coal mines this year after a series of fatal accidents.
The price of coal has risen dramatically since September because of serious shortages, which, in turn, made power plants reluctant to buy more coal.
Some power plants in Shanxi Province, which are supposed to keep a two-week stockpile, have seen their inventory last only three days.
The State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the industry watchdog, has said the electricity supply shortage will not be alleviated until 2006.
The tightened power supply is expected to continue in the coming two years, mainly due to insufficient power plant construction in previous years, said the commission.
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