US leaders sound hopeful on Iraq troop cuts
(AP)
Updated: 2005-11-24 09:07

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Fox News on Tuesday that the U.S. would probably not need to maintain its current troop levels in Iraq "very much longer." Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told radio talk show host Sean Hannity that the war would wind down over the next two years, and "we'll see the coalition forces being able to pare down and pass over responsibility to Iraqi Security Forces on an orderly basis" after the Dec. 15 elections.

The Washington Post, quoting anonymous sources, reported Wednesday that the Pentagon tentatively plans to reduce the number of U.S. forces in Iraq early next year by up to three of the 18 combat brigades.

"With the number of units available, they are coming to the point where they simply were not going to have enough brigades," said Dan Goure, a military analyst with the nonpartisan Lexington Institute, which studies public policy. "There is a recognition that the number has to come down because of the stress that was being placed on the force."

Goure added, "There is a plan that has been in the works for at least six months with the idea that we possibly could reduce the number of troops."

Rumsfeld and others have said they expect U.S. forces to drop back down to the base level of about 138,000 after the Dec. 15 election for Iraq's new government. So far, the Pentagon has identified 92,000 troops who will be rotated into Iraq through mid-2008, though Rumsfeld has cautioned that should not be taken as a final number.

Officials have put off the deployment of the 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, based at Fort Riley, Kan., which was originally scheduled to deploy before the election. That deployment has not yet been scheduled.

The troops currently in Iraq comprise 17 brigades and three additional battalions — which add up to about another brigade. The three battalions are scheduled to return home after the first of the year. A brigade normally numbers between 3,500 and 5,000 soldiers, while battalions average about 800.

Basing a brigade in Kuwait, where it could train and be ready for any emergency action, would not be an unexpected move. That country has long been used as a staging area for troops entering and leaving Iraq.