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Analysts pore over Bin Laden tape clues
(AP)
Updated: 2006-01-21 09:58
The government sought Friday to pinpoint when Osama bin Laden recorded his
most recent warning about planned attacks on the United States — a key fact that
could help determine the risk that terrorists will carry out the threat.
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Exiled Saudi
dissident Osama bin Laden is seen in this April 1998 file photo in
Afghanistan. Al-Jazeera aired an audiotape purportedly from Osama bin
Laden on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2006, saying al-Qaida is making preparations
for attacks in the United States but offering a truce to rebuild Iraq and
Afghanistan. [AP]
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Intelligence officials said analysts were scrutinizing the audio tape by the
al-Qaida leader for any clues — including certain words and phrases — that might
be a signal for the terror network's members or followers. They spoke on
condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about
the matter.
The Homeland Security Department said it had no plans to raise the nation's
terror threat alert level and no reason to believe an attack was imminent.
"We, of course, have been very concerned about the threat of terrorism,
generally, since the attacks of 9/11," Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said.
"And obviously we expect the American people to live their lives as normally as
possible."
"We clearly understand that we have a very real threat against the United
States, United States interests here and abroad," Gonzales said. "And that we
ought to be doing everything that we can do to protect America against that
threat."
The audio recording was the first public statement by bin Laden since
December 2004. That is the longest stretch the terror leader has been publicly
quiet since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Authorities would not say whether the
recording indicates anything about bin Laden's whereabouts or health.
A counterterror official said analysts believe the tape appears to have been
recorded since December, although it was not clear how recently — or if in
response to U.S. missile strikes in Pakistan last week that Pakistani
authorities said killed four senior al-Qaida operatives.
Arab television network Al-Jazeera, which released the tape Thursday,
initially reported it was made in December but corrected itself later to say it
was recorded in January. Editors at the station said they could not comment on
how they knew when it was made.
John Rollins, a former Homeland Security intelligence official, said the
timeline is important because terror threats can lose credibility as time goes
on without an attack.
"If you can date it back as being from weeks or months ago, and he's saying
then that he's getting close to operation readiness, this gives you an
indication that it's bravado," said Rollins, now a terrorism expert at the
Congressional Research Service.
But if the threats were recorded very recently, "then that does raise the bar
to more concerns that the timing of the tape may coincide with actual plans that
are under way," Rollins said.
Getting the exact date is important because "the difference between December
and January is pretty minimal," said Roger W. Cressey, a former White House
counterterrorism official during the Clinton and current Bush administrations.
"It's almost irrelevant — unless you could say it was recorded last week."
An analysis by the IntelCenter, a U.S. government contractor that does work
for intelligence agencies, highlighted language in bin Laden's statement that it
said could be part of a warning cycle for Americans.
In his most recent recording, bin Laden began his statement by saying, "Peace
be upon those who follow guidance." That language, the analysis concluded,
closely matches a pattern seen before the bombings in London last July 7. Bin
Laden used almost identical greetings in statements directed to Europeans in
April 2004 and to Americans in October 2004.
"We believe that this signifies this is a warning message, and they feel
they're obligated (to give) in the run-up to an attack," said Ben Venzke, chief
executive at the IntelCenter.
The government's counterterror officials declined to comment on the analysis.
The tape came days before a planned weekend training exercise in which
military aircraft are to conduct patrols over the nation's capital to intercept
and divert planes that appear to pose a threat. But Michael Kucharek, a
spokesman for the U.S. Northern Command, which is responsible for the defense of
U.S. territory, said there have been no changes to the systematic air patrolling
of U.S. airspace.
The threat on the bin Laden audio tape "means nothing to us," the spokesman
said, adding that the training was planned well before the tape's release and
was just the latest in a series of such exercises.
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