Advanced Search  
       
     
    China Daily
    HK Edition  
    Top News  
    Hong Kong  
    Nation  
    Opinion  
    World  
    Business  
    Features  
    Sports  
    Business Weekly  
    Beijing Weekend  
    Supplement  
    Shanghai Star  
    21Century  
    Manufacturers, Exporters, Wholesalers - Global trade starts here.
     
    Hong Kong ... ...
    Advertisement
        HK economic recovery to continue

    2005-08-13 07:57

    Hong Kong's economic recovery looks set to continue thanks to robust domestic demand, which should withstand the challenge of rising interest rates, surging oil prices and an uncertain trade outlook, analysts say.

    Lehman Brothers has raised its 2005 growth forecast for the territory to 6 per cent from 5 per cent, while Bank of China (Hong Kong) sees the economy expanding 5 per cent, up from an earlier projection of 4.5 per cent.

    "High consumption and investment confidence, a stable political atmosphere, positive wealth effects from both the stock and property markets, Disneyland, and mainland factors are all favourable elements that can offset (external) uncertainties," Bank of China said on upgrading its growth forecast.

    Gross domestic product grew 1.5 per cent in the first quarter from the previous three months and was 6.0 per cent higher than a year earlier.

    A look at recent Hong Kong economic data, however, reveals some worrying signs.

    Two months of disappointing retail sales and a slump in residential property sales in July suggested a one-and-a-half-point jump in interest rates since May was hurting.

    Shops are offering discounts of 50 per cent or more to get rid of end-of-season stock. And as consumers grapple with rising fuel costs, they were hit by another quarter-point rise in commercial bank interest rates this week.

    Hong Kong tends to track US interest rate moves because of its currency peg to the US dollar and analysts forecast this week that lending rates could rise another three quarters of a point by the end of the year.

    Property worries?

    "A higher interest rate environment is not good for Hong Kong," said George Leung, chief economist at HSBC.

    Property transactions a bellwether of consumer confidence fell 30 per cent in July from June. Rate increases in coming months will slow consumption and could drag down the economy, leading to a mere 4 per cent expansion in gross domestic product this year, Leung said.

    But other economists are not so downbeat, predicting consumption and property purchases will rebound.

    "A series of interest rate rises have hurt property transactions but they haven't depressed property prices," said Daniel Chan, senior investment strategist at DBS Bank.

    "In the short term, property may consolidate but I don't see a crisis in the market. Wage prospects continue to improve and since the yuan's appreciation, Hong Kong asset prices are quite cheap."

    Investment in Hong Kong has become cheaper for the Chinese mainland since Beijing revalued the yuan by 2.1 per cent last month.

    While property investors are cautious, equity investors drove the stock market to its highest level in four-and-a-half years this week after a string of good company results.

    Meanwhile, employment growth is solid and wages are rising for the first time in four years.

    Goldman Sachs estimates that a 0.5 per cent rise in household income coupled with a 2.7 per cent increase in property prices offsets a one-point rise in interest rates.

    The investment house expects retail sales to accelerate once Hong Kong Disneyland opens next month, ushering in a new wave of tourists, and forecasts 5.5 per cent economic growth for the territory in 2005, followed by 5.4 per cent in 2006.

    Faster-than-expected growth in the United States, Hong Kong's second-biggest export market, could even stem a slowdown in trade.

    But analysts agree that the property market needs monitoring. A rebound in property prices in the past two years has made consumers feel wealthier and ready to spend and that feeling could evaporate quickly if prices turn south, they say.

    (HK Edition 08/13/2005 page3)

     
                     

    | Home | News | Business | Culture | Living in China | Forum | E-Papers |Weather |

    |About Us | Contact Us | Site Map | Jobs | About China Daily |
     Copyright 2005 Chinadaily.com.cn All rights reserved. Registered Number: 20100000002731
    少妇无码太爽了不卡视频在线看 | 欧美中文在线视频| 特级做A爰片毛片免费看无码 | 日韩av无码中文无码电影| 亚洲精品无码mv在线观看网站| 中文字幕Av一区乱码| 国产精品亚洲а∨无码播放| A级毛片无码久久精品免费| 欧美日韩中文在线| 中文字幕精品亚洲无线码一区 | 久久中文字幕精品| 人禽无码视频在线观看 | 无码人妻精品一区二区三区东京热| 中文字幕亚洲欧美专区| 亚洲国产精品无码久久青草| 精品无码久久久久国产| 中文字幕乱码无码人妻系列蜜桃| 日本成人中文字幕| 婷婷色中文字幕综合在线 | 中文字幕无码不卡在线| Aⅴ精品无码无卡在线观看| 少妇无码AV无码专区线| 亚洲va中文字幕无码久久不卡| 国产成人无码AV一区二区在线观看| 欧美麻豆久久久久久中文| 亚洲电影中文字幕| 中文字幕在线观看日本| 最近2019中文字幕免费直播| 中文字幕亚洲色图| 最近更新免费中文字幕大全| 中文字幕无码不卡在线| 久久无码高潮喷水| 亚洲国产精品无码久久久蜜芽| 中文字幕无码第1页| 午夜福利av无码一区二区| 手机永久无码国产AV毛片 | 日韩免费a级毛片无码a∨| 国产高清无码二区 | 久久久噜噜噜久久中文福利| 亚洲无av在线中文字幕| 久久久久久无码国产精品中文字幕|