久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

Hong Kong Outlook 2010

Updated: 2010-01-27 07:36

By Joey Kwok, Li Tao and Cheng Waiman(HK Edition)

  Print Mail Large Medium  Small

Overview

The beginning of the year is the time to look ahead. After the roller caster ride last year, the economic environment is looking brighter for Hong Kong in 2010. However, bumpy external conditions and worries about asset bubbles are creating challenges to the investment market this year. In its special report on the city's investment outlook, China Daily takes a look ahead at the big picture as well as the key sectors of banking and property on their prospects this year.

According to HSBC, the recovery in domestic demand in Hong Kong is likely to be sustained in 2010. So far, the combination of an easier fiscal stance and cheap home financing has resulted in private consumption rising for two consecutive quarters since the second quarter last year.

HSBC believes the city's asset markets should continue to benefit from loose monetary policy that should remain for some time. This prolonged wealth effect and increased job security will encourage local residents to spend more.

JP Morgan forecast Hong Kong's real GDP to grow by 5.9 percent in 2010, following a 2.6 percent decline in 2009. The investment bank expects a significant economic recovery in 2010 to help drive a further re-rating of the market.

Private consumption, investment, government spending and exports are all expected to increase, with positive revisions of earnings and net asset values as the economy improves.

But JP Morgan also said even if export growth is weaker-than-expected, domestic consumption and government spending are expected to improve this year.

According to Credit Suisse, the first phase of the post-crisis recovery has been foreign fund flows into Asia buying relatively safe (low geared) investments. Going into 2010, when the financial system starts to stabilize and risks become more assessable, the investment bank believes cash-rich corporations in Hong Kong will start to use cash piles to look for investment opportunities overseas.

In Hong Kong, not many corporations will have overseas investment experience and the required risk appetite. Instead, the investment bank believes they will step up their investment locally (buying into land banks in Hong Kong) or expand in China again.

Stock Market

What's ahead for 2010?

Apparently, a market turning even further upward. For example, Sun Hung Kai Financial's forecast for the Hang Seng Index is 28,000 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is 17,500.

After reaching significant lows in March 2009, many indices around the world rebounded by approximately 70 percent by the end of 2009. Hong Kong has eclipsed these gains, with the Hang Seng Index soaring 93 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index surging 94 percent.

"We expect discretionary consumer stocks to outperform in 2010, and we also recommend buying asset inflation hedges and stocks of companies that will benefit from growth-oriented government policies," said Alvin Chong, head of research, Sun Hung Kai Financial.

"In addition, it is important to buy into companies that can deploy capital efficiently to lift returns, including those that can maintain high dividends and expand their market share post-crisis," Chong said.

From an undervaluation of 40 percent relative to the region at the beginning of 2008, Credit Suisse believes the Hong Kong market is now at a slight overvaluation of 8 percent.

The investment bank believes the next market driver will be a real recovery in the export sector on the back of the gradual global trade recovery. The trading sector accounts for 15 percent of employment in Hong Kong. It believes the recovery of this, together with the peaking of unemployment, will provide a strong income effect on the economy.

Credit Suisse also believes that local retail and commercial properties will be the prime beneficiaries of this recovery in the real economy. Furthermore, two other key themes - trade and retail - are what the investment bank believes the market will focus on.

JP Morgan expects earnings forecasts can increase along with P/E ratios, given that sentiment can improve further. The investment bank is overweight on property and commercial/industrial sectors. It believes property developers, retailers and selective exporters should benefit in the current environment. It recommends underweighting utilities. Within the commercial/industrial sector, aviation is expected to see a late-cycle recovery.

Hong Kong Outlook 2010

Banks

Banks in Hong Kong are likely to continue operating in a satisfactory environment stepping into 2010, analysts said.

International credit-rating agency Moody's has recently changed the outlook for Hong Kong's banking system to stable from negative, as the sector benefits from the global economic recovery and solid economic conditions on the mainland.

"The Chinese government is tightening its monetary policy, which improves the chance that bank credits will grow at a more sustainable, healthy rate," said Leo Wah, a senior analyst at Moody's.

Wah added that banks in Hong Kong are increasing their risk appetite in lending and their treasury operations with care, which will allow banks to enjoy better profitability without taking too much additional risk, while optimizing the risk and return profile.

He noted that downside risks for Hong Kong remain, but due to strong financial profiles, crisis-test management teams and a stringent regulatory regime, there isn't a long list of factors that may cause serious damage to the banks.

Investment bank Credit Suisse expects some of the local banks in Hong Kong to show a better performance by recording higher net interest margins in 2010.

"Interest rates have already bottomed and will revert sometime in 2010, depending on the pace of the economic recovery. We believe the larger banks in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Bank and Bank of China (Hong Kong), are likely to see an improvement in net interest margins from the rise in inter-bank rates," said Cusson Leung, head of Hong Kong research at Credit Suisse.

Leung added that the potential recovery in trade finance should also offset some of the slowdown in mortgage loan growth.

The investment bank also selects HSBC Holdings as its top pick among all the banks in Hong Kong, saying that HSBC remains attractive, because of its leverage with rising rates, strong balance sheet, as well as its being growth driven by Asia and lower-than-expected US or UK credit losses.

UBS, on the other hand, picks Bank of China (Hong Kong) as its top call in Hong Kong, as the bank posted a healthy core equity tier 1 ratio of 11.2 percent in the first half of 2009.

UBS, however, believes Hong Kong banks, with excessive levels of liquidity, may start to extend loans more aggressively in an effort to pursue greater yields by leading-up the balance sheet.

Property

Many market experts expect prices in Hong Kong to rise further in 2010.

Real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Group (CBRE) earlier said that luxury and mass residential home prices in Hong Kong may surge 20 percent and 15 percent, respectively, benefiting from the extremely low interest-rate environment.

Justin Chiu, Executive director of Cheung Kong (Holdings), also estimated prices for luxury homes and new mass-market homes to rise 10 to 15 percent and 15 to 20 percent, respectively, in 2010.

Chiu said he "didn't really see a bubble" in the local property market, but he advised buyers to be cautious, as there could be some speculative investments in the real estate market.

Despite the increase in local home prices in 2009, Goldman Sachs said concerns on the potential housing bubble in the Hong Kong real estate market are overdone.

"Unlike the previous bubble in the mid-90s, mortgage loan growth has lagged behind the property price rise this time. Measures of speculative activities, affordability and carrying costs are healthy," said Anthony Wu, analyst at Goldman Sachs (Asia). Wu added that the housing bubble concerns are premature and that concerns about developer stocks' weakness are unwarranted.

UBS also expressed optimism in the local property sector in 2010. The investment bank forecast that the rise in home prices will not be "irrational", as the SAR government may launch more measures to curb home prices rising too much.

"Given the propensity for Hong Kong property to react with higher volatility than the magnitude of the US currency's depreciation, we continue to expect strong property price rises in Hong Kong as the US dollar depreciation process plays out," the investment bank said. UBS also estimates that the property-related economics measures to be reported in the first half of 2010 will be positive, due to the low-base in the previous year.

(HK Edition 01/27/2010 page4)

久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    亚洲理论电影在线观看| 国产永久免费网站| av动漫免费观看| 久久成人免费观看| 91蝌蚪视频在线| 日本三级免费观看| 日韩欧美中文在线视频| 欧洲金发美女大战黑人| 人妻熟女一二三区夜夜爱| 超碰97免费观看| 成人亚洲精品777777大片| 国产精品久久久久9999爆乳| 国产美女18xxxx免费视频| 国产精品无码av在线播放| 黄色www在线观看| www.超碰com| 亚洲欧洲日产国码无码久久99| 黄色一级片网址| 精品人妻一区二区三区四区在线| 国产日韩第一页| 不卡的在线视频| 久久综合伊人77777麻豆最新章节| 婷婷五月综合缴情在线视频| 国产手机视频在线观看| 天天久久综合网| 一区二区三区入口| 91av在线免费播放| 国产亚洲综合视频| 免费不卡av在线| 国产又粗又猛又爽又黄的网站 | 黄色一级视频播放| 亚洲欧美日韩综合网| 免费黄色特级片| 免费观看精品视频| 99999精品视频| 国产不卡一区二区视频| 成人免费网站入口| www.夜夜爱| 国产在线观看欧美| 成人av在线播放观看| 日韩精品免费一区| 91免费国产精品| 久久男人资源站| 国产精品一色哟哟| 精品视频在线观看一区二区| 欧美一级特黄aaaaaa在线看片| 污视频在线观看免费网站| caoporm在线视频| 天天综合成人网| 亚洲欧美日韩三级| 国产精品中文久久久久久| 亚洲国产精品影视| 男插女免费视频| 天堂а√在线中文在线| 波多野结衣av一区二区全免费观看| 欧美乱做爰xxxⅹ久久久| 国产精品视频网站在线观看| 野外做受又硬又粗又大视频√| 热99这里只有精品| 99热自拍偷拍| 青青草av网站| 亚洲精品第三页| 欧洲精品视频在线| 日韩在线观看a| 欧美视频第一区| 天天视频天天爽| 国产日本欧美在线| 日韩小视频网站| 一本大道熟女人妻中文字幕在线| 亚洲综合在线网站| 国产探花在线看| 中国黄色片一级| 久久久久久蜜桃一区二区| 国产又大又长又粗又黄| 欧美黑人在线观看| 国产淫片av片久久久久久| 亚洲色图久久久| 日本xxx免费| 一二三四视频社区在线| 婷婷六月天在线| 国产精品波多野结衣| 青青草国产免费| 国产视频手机在线播放| 三级网在线观看| 777精品久无码人妻蜜桃| 香蕉视频网站入口| 香蕉视频免费版| 欧美a在线视频| 激情图片中文字幕| 日本一区午夜艳熟免费| 一区二区三区视频在线观看免费| 三级黄色片播放| 欧美成人三级在线视频| 可以看污的网站| 人妻无码久久一区二区三区免费| 波多野结衣xxxx| 岛国大片在线播放| 色婷婷综合网站| 成人一区二区免费视频| 亚洲77777| 日本人体一区二区| 亚洲免费成人在线视频| 亚洲不卡中文字幕无码| 污视频网址在线观看| 免费观看国产精品视频| 天天影视色综合| 国产老熟妇精品观看| 国产精品嫩草影视| 精品www久久久久奶水| 久久香蕉视频网站| 日本 片 成人 在线| 奇米影视亚洲色图| 国产福利片一区二区| mm1313亚洲国产精品无码试看| 欧美日韩中文字幕在线播放| 国产xxxxx视频| 成年女人18级毛片毛片免费| 日日干日日操日日射| 日日摸天天爽天天爽视频| 热久久最新网址| 亚洲va在线va天堂va偷拍| wwwxxx黄色片| www.射射射| 今天免费高清在线观看国语| 国产日韩欧美久久| 国产一区亚洲二区三区| 国产一线二线三线女| 天天操天天干天天玩| 无尽裸体动漫2d在线观看| 99999精品视频| 国产原创中文在线观看| 水蜜桃在线免费观看| 欧美大片久久久| 国产精品入口免费软件| 日本精品免费在线观看| 亚洲 自拍 另类小说综合图区| 精品一区二区三区毛片| 亚洲黄色片免费看| 亚洲欧美日韩精品一区| 91精品无人成人www| aⅴ在线免费观看| 日日鲁鲁鲁夜夜爽爽狠狠视频97| 成人免费网站入口| 免费看日b视频| 大片在线观看网站免费收看| 黄色免费高清视频| 国内av一区二区| 国产美女18xxxx免费视频| 天天综合网日韩| www黄色在线| 欧洲黄色一级视频| 国模无码视频一区二区三区| 欧美午夜性视频| 久久亚洲国产成人精品无码区| 黄色一级片国产| 日本大胆人体视频| www.国产在线视频| 青青草精品视频在线| 久色视频在线播放| 黄色影院一级片| 大香煮伊手机一区| 成年人在线观看视频免费| 国产精品视频黄色| 亚洲国产日韩欧美在线观看| 九九热精品在线播放| www.99r| 99re精彩视频| 免费看啪啪网站| 欧美日韩中文字幕在线播放| 精品国产一区二区三区无码| 国产免费一区二区视频| 久在线观看视频| 欧美精品性生活| 天天干天天曰天天操| 免费观看中文字幕| 久久久久久人妻一区二区三区| 欧美在线观看成人| 日韩一级片播放| 亚洲女人在线观看| 日本黄色片一级片| 男女午夜激情视频| wwwwwxxxx日本| 免费cad大片在线观看| 免费看一级大黄情大片| 国产视频一区二区三区在线播放| 中国黄色片一级| 91视频 - 88av| 男人透女人免费视频| 国产欧美激情视频| 国产女教师bbwbbwbbw| 日韩欧美精品在线观看视频| 美女在线视频一区二区| 国产日韩第一页| 东京热加勒比无码少妇| 毛片毛片毛片毛| 久久亚洲精品无码va白人极品| 成人在线观看黄| 熟妇熟女乱妇乱女网站| 男女高潮又爽又黄又无遮挡| 91丨九色丨蝌蚪|