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China's modern developed economy built out of the BRICs

Updated: 2013-06-01 08:03

By Richard Harris(HK Edition)

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China's modern developed economy built out of the BRICs

The term BRICs was coined to group several large newly industrialized countries that had not yet reached the stage of being considered developed countries. Brazil, Russia, India and China may have slipped nicely into the same box a decade ago, but that is not the case today. China especially has lifted itself outside the box with massive and targeted development in the last decade and has now a well-diversified modern developed economy.

Sipping a Starbucks cappuccino and eating a McDonald's (while surfing the UK sports pages) on a train smoothly speeding at 309 km/h through the Chinese countryside, allows time for reflection. The common criteria for evaluating the degree of economic development are: GDP, per capita income, level of industrialization, amount of widespread infrastructure and general standard of living.

China is the second-largest - mathematics and demographics ensure that it will soon be the largest - economy on earth, so there is no question about GDP. The country has a deeply industrialized economy, well represented in all sectors. Per capita income is on the low side, but has doubled since 2005 (to nearly US$10,000 per head) and China has more population than anyone else. Standards of living are rising as fast as it takes a Beijing Subway passenger to whip out a smartphone. To this must be added a welfare system, which is both expensive and expansive.

Life expectancy at 73 is above the BRICs average and a reduction in pollution and smoking will soon lift that towards the US at 79. Literacy levels have always been very high as education is highly prized in China. Population growth at 0.5 percent per annum is less than the US at 0.7 percent - though the numbers are much bigger. China, once the recipient of international development aid, now provides a great deal of development aid to developing countries itself.

On the other hand, developed nations do not grow like a developing economy and the management of economic cycles is one of the key skills for the leadership of a developed nation. China starkly illustrates the benefits and responsibilities of a developed nation.

Premier Li Keqiang recognized the beginning of developed economic cycles in China when he said recently in Germany that China has "huge challenges" now that GDP growth is expected to fall to a relatively pedestrian 7 percent. This slowdown was going to happen eventually in the natural evolution from a developing to a developed country and the leadership has rightly identified the fact that China will need another economic model over the next decade. Costs have continued to rise in the domestic market, export markets have been weak and profits for companies in China have shrunk. The stock market has performed poorly - especially when compared to other major country global markets. The property market has rightly been slowed by government policies intended to keep house prices affordable.

The domestic as opposed to the export-driven economy must and will become an increasingly important component. The inherent domestic strength of the US market protects that economy while global growth is weak; having a strong domestic economy is of great advantage. An imbalanced economy does not mean that a country is any less developed - highly developed Norway relies largely on oil exports alone.

Being developed does not mean that a country can operate independently from the rest of the world - rather the opposite. Developed countries take a responsible and statesmanlike part in global affairs and have open borders. Economics and "the Law of Comparative Advantage" teach us that this is beneficial for all sides. This means that China is likely to become more global. The State Council under Premier Li has already talked about opening the capital account, liberalizing the renminbi and making interest rates and the economy as a whole more "market-driven". These are dramatic and necessary moves.

Being developed does not mean being closed and nationalistic, rather it embraces openness and trade. It does not mean that a country cannot accept help, either professional or otherwise. China assisted Japan to recover from the terrible tsunami in March 2011, and while little could be done for those in peril, much could be done afterwards. The recent very high casualty rate in a factory collapse in Bangladesh was partly because the authorities did not allow foreign experts to assist in recovering the survivors. Developed countries have the maturity and the self-confidence to know when to seek assistance from the world - and when to offer it.

The author is chief executive of Port Shelter Investment Management.

(HK Edition 06/01/2013 page6)

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