久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
China
Home / China / View

Rising corporate debt emerging as major risk

By Shen Jianguang and Michael Luk | China Daily Europe | Updated: 2016-06-12 15:47

It's evident the recovery since the start of 2016 is unsustainable and lacking a broad-based impact on the economy

Broadly speaking, we expect economic activity in May to remain similar to April and continue to draw on the momentum seen from the massive government stimulus since late last year and the beginning of this year. This consists mainly of resilient infrastructure and real estate investment.

Despite the slowdown in April, we continue to expect infrastructure investment to remain relatively strong on the back of the sharp increase in newly approved projects at 38 percent year-on-year. Indeed, the National Development and Reform Commission, the economic planner, said in May that between 2016 and 2018 a total of 4.7 trillion yuan ($715 billion; 629 billion euros) will be invested in 303 transportation-related infrastructure projects, thus providing a steady flow of new projects to keep investment strong.

In addition, the People's Bank of China said on May 3 that it is encouraging policy banks to use pledged supplementary lending for financing these long-term projects.

The property sector, driven by looser lending policies, also remains a pillar for the economy. From January to April, housing sales increased by 61.5 percent year-on-year in 70 cities, along with surging prices, first among top-tier cities and then more recently in smaller cities. It has brought back the enthusiasm of property developers to invest in construction projects. Real estate investment picked up to 7.2 percent year-on-year from January to April.

Nevertheless, it is already evident that the recovery since the start of this year is unsustainable and lacking a broad-based impact on the economy. The private sector, in particular, was generally left out of the government's stimulus program. Private fixed-asset investment weakened to 5.2 percent year-on-year from January to April. Manufacturing investment also slowed to 6 percent year-on-year.

This shows that the rapid credit growth has largely benefited the cash flows of the already highly indebted real estate sector and government-related parties.

For external trade, we do not expect much improvement from the lackluster global demand that has been the prevailing theme in both the International Monetary Fund and the China Customs' assessment. Specifically, high-frequency updates from the shipping industry suggest that demand from both the United States and Europe has been mild, which has led to delays in price hikes.

Therefore, we expect exports to fall further by 5 percent year-on-year in May, and imports by 6 percent year-on-year, although the trade surplus will again expand to $57.2 billion amid an even worse decline in imports.

Last, we believe the tightened loan growth in April was a correction from the radical monetary easing in the first quarter. Although monetary easing may become less aggressive, especially as it has become the focus of internal policy disagreement, credit growth in May will likely expand moderately again. Meanwhile, corporate bond financing will likely tighten further amid rising credit risk.

Going forward, we expect the massive stimulus that has so far prevented a further economic downturn in China to scale down, particularly as monetary policy may become less accommodative.

Altogether, we believe China's economy and its policy position are both at a crossroad, and further moderation in China's outlook is likely inevitable in the coming months.

We see two major risks for the Chinese economy now: further RMB depreciation, due to US dollar strengthening, and corporate default.

Appreciation of the dollar since May could reflect the impending US Federal Reserve rate hike, which has already caused the RMB to weaken. In fact, the US rate hike cycle has historically been destabilizing to financial markets around the world. Again, we believe RMB depreciation is sending a message that the expected June interest rate hike by the Fed will likely have negative repercussions for the global market.

Even though we maintain our view that a massive one-off devaluation of the RMB is unlikely, mild depreciation of the RMB is the most likely scenario, at least until the third quarter.

Indeed, easy access to credit may have contributed to the excess capacity and rising debt burden of the state-owned enterprises. The discussion between the State Council and the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms in May highlighted that there are 345 "zombie" SOEs, many of which also have multiple subsidiaries and complicated management hierarchies.

Although there are only 106 central government-controlled SOEs, there are altogether more than 40,000 business entities under them, which harbor redundant labor and excess capacity. The commitment to remove these obsolete resources, in our view, is an important part of China's SOE reform.

Subsequently, the rapidly rising corporate debt-to-GDP ratio has become one of the most serious risks facing the Chinese economy. This could be attributed to:

Diminishing marginal return of capital in recent years, partly on the back of corporate inefficiencies.

The rising financial investments of nonfinancial companies.

Zombie companies need more loans to pay back their debts. We noticed that with the slowing down of the economy, the number of A-share-listed nonfinancial companies with earnings insufficient to cover their interest payments has grown dramatically to 425 last year from 272 in 2013. Without decisive reform, this problem could only get worse.

Shen Jianguang is chief economist at Mizuho Securities (Asia) Ltd and Michael Luk is a researcher with the same company. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Editor's picks
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    国产精品视频一二三| 午夜精品国产更新| 91麻豆成人久久精品二区三区| 中文字幕一区二区三区蜜月 | 26uuu色噜噜精品一区二区| 国产精品77777竹菊影视小说| 中文字幕免费不卡| 色诱亚洲精品久久久久久| 香蕉av福利精品导航| 日韩女优av电影| 国产.欧美.日韩| 亚洲美女少妇撒尿| 欧美一区二区三区在线观看视频| 成人av电影在线| 欧美天堂一区二区三区| 男男gaygay亚洲| 亚洲国产精品成人综合| 91福利小视频| 久久精品国产亚洲高清剧情介绍 | 韩国三级电影一区二区| 欧美国产精品专区| 欧美色偷偷大香| 久久99国产精品免费| 亚洲欧洲日韩在线| 欧美一区二区精品在线| 成人看片黄a免费看在线| 午夜欧美视频在线观看 | 亚洲一区二区三区中文字幕在线| 欧美不卡激情三级在线观看| jiyouzz国产精品久久| 天天av天天翘天天综合网| 国产午夜精品在线观看| 欧美日本一区二区三区| 国产成人午夜片在线观看高清观看| 尤物av一区二区| 久久久综合精品| 欧美午夜精品久久久久久孕妇| 韩国女主播成人在线| 亚洲一区二区三区不卡国产欧美| 亚洲精品在线电影| 欧美最猛性xxxxx直播| 国产成人精品免费在线| 亚洲成av人片在线| 国产精品福利一区二区三区| 欧美一级淫片007| 91玉足脚交白嫩脚丫在线播放| 蜜桃精品视频在线| 亚洲影院免费观看| 欧美极品少妇xxxxⅹ高跟鞋| 6080国产精品一区二区| av在线一区二区三区| 久久成人免费网站| 亚洲一区在线视频| 国产精品―色哟哟| 欧美一区中文字幕| 91官网在线观看| 国产精品一区二区三区乱码| 五月婷婷欧美视频| 日韩伦理免费电影| 久久精品亚洲精品国产欧美| 69av一区二区三区| 欧洲日韩一区二区三区| 成人综合婷婷国产精品久久蜜臀 | 在线精品国精品国产尤物884a| 夫妻av一区二区| 精品一区二区精品| 日韩高清在线一区| 亚洲va欧美va国产va天堂影院| 国产精品婷婷午夜在线观看| 精品免费视频一区二区| 欧美日韩1区2区| 色老头久久综合| 成人a免费在线看| 国产一区二区成人久久免费影院 | 国产精品卡一卡二| 久久亚洲精华国产精华液| 日韩一区二区三区av| 欧美系列在线观看| 色婷婷久久综合| 波多野结衣在线aⅴ中文字幕不卡| 极品美女销魂一区二区三区| 日韩国产在线一| 午夜精品在线看| 亚洲综合视频在线观看| 亚洲欧美成人一区二区三区| 国产精品免费久久| 国产欧美一区二区精品性色| 久久综合九色综合久久久精品综合| 欧美一级黄色片| 91精品国产综合久久香蕉麻豆| 欧美偷拍一区二区| 欧美日韩国产一二三| 欧美体内she精高潮| 在线中文字幕一区| 在线中文字幕一区二区| 在线亚洲一区观看| 欧洲av一区二区嗯嗯嗯啊| 日本黄色一区二区| 欧美在线观看视频一区二区| 欧美主播一区二区三区| 欧美在线一二三| 欧美日韩国产三级| 91精品国产手机| 欧美xingq一区二区| 精品国产免费久久| 久久久99精品免费观看不卡| 久久精品男人天堂av| 国产精品午夜在线| 最新久久zyz资源站| 亚洲少妇30p| 夜夜精品视频一区二区| 亚洲影院久久精品| 人人狠狠综合久久亚洲| 久久99国产精品成人| 国产美女久久久久| 成人高清视频在线观看| 91一区二区在线| 在线观看区一区二| 欧美丰满高潮xxxx喷水动漫| 欧美电影免费观看高清完整版 | 久久久天堂av| 亚洲欧洲av一区二区三区久久| 亚洲视频在线一区| 亚洲丰满少妇videoshd| 青草av.久久免费一区| 国产一区二区按摩在线观看| 丁香一区二区三区| 91视频.com| 欧美日韩和欧美的一区二区| 欧美本精品男人aⅴ天堂| 日本一区二区三区dvd视频在线| 国产精品国产三级国产普通话三级 | 久久99久久99精品免视看婷婷| 国产乱色国产精品免费视频| 成人91在线观看| 欧美日韩精品免费| 久久人人爽人人爽| 亚洲天堂精品视频| 午夜电影一区二区三区| 蜜臀av一区二区在线免费观看| 国产黄色精品网站| 91福利视频久久久久| 欧美成人乱码一区二区三区| 国产精品天天摸av网| 亚洲一区二区av电影| 狠狠v欧美v日韩v亚洲ⅴ| 99久久精品免费精品国产| 欧美女孩性生活视频| 久久久久久久久久久99999| 亚洲男人的天堂在线观看| 日韩av一区二区三区四区| 成人三级伦理片| 777a∨成人精品桃花网| 欧美激情一区二区在线| 亚洲午夜精品在线| 国产一区二区三区四区在线观看| 色综合夜色一区| 精品日韩欧美一区二区| 亚洲欧美日韩国产一区二区三区| 日韩精品五月天| 播五月开心婷婷综合| 91精品国产欧美日韩| 国产精品成人免费| 蜜臀av在线播放一区二区三区| 99国产精品久久| 欧美第一区第二区| 一区二区三区四区高清精品免费观看 | 中文字幕的久久| 日韩不卡免费视频| 色综合天天综合给合国产| 欧美变态tickling挠脚心| 一区二区三区精密机械公司| 国产一区二区影院| 欧美日韩一区三区| 国产精品污www在线观看| 男男成人高潮片免费网站| 色婷婷国产精品久久包臀 | ww亚洲ww在线观看国产| 亚洲午夜一区二区| 国产suv精品一区二区883| 日韩一区二区三区av| 亚洲激情在线激情| 国产精品18久久久久久久久久久久 | 欧美成人一区二区三区片免费 | 久久久久久久综合日本| 午夜av一区二区三区| 色综合天天综合网国产成人综合天| 欧美精品一区二区三区久久久| 亚洲成人动漫av| 一本久久综合亚洲鲁鲁五月天| 国产午夜精品久久久久久久| 蜜桃视频免费观看一区| 欧美日韩在线精品一区二区三区激情 | 午夜精品爽啪视频| 97久久人人超碰| 久久久国产精华| 另类人妖一区二区av| 欧美日韩亚洲综合在线 | 99精品视频中文字幕| 久久久久久免费网|