The Central Bank of Russia says the amount of
U.S. dollars held by individual citizens of this country is rapidly declining.
The bank says Russians are also moving increasing sums abroad. Moscow
correspondent Peter Fedynsky follows the money trail and reports that Russians
are gaining confidence in their own economy.
New figures released by the Russian Central Bank indicate the amount of U.S.
dollars held by private Russian citizens has dropped since 2002 from $35 billion
to less than $12 billion as of July 1.
Denis Rodionov, managing director of the Bright Minds Capital Investment firm
in Moscow, says Russians are trading in their dollars for rubles because of
uncertainties linked to the American budget deficit and negative balance of
trade. Rodionov says the ruble is also becoming a more convenient currency.
Rodionov says that, obviously, the process is lengthy, but the ruble over the
past several years has risen against the dollar. In addition, the ruble now pays
higher interest on savings.
Another Russian Central Bank report indicates nearly $19 billion were
transferred out of the country last year. Russian citizens accounted for 54
percent of that amount. Many of the transfers involve trade, especially with
China. Analysts say the flow of capital abroad also reflects efforts by Russians
to purchase new technology or to reduce risk through international
diversification.
Nonetheless, Anton Struchinevsky, senior economist with Mosocw's
Troika-Dialog investment firm, says more money is flowing into Russia than out.
Struchinevksy says that last year the overall influx of capital amounted to
about $41 billion. He adds that in the second quarter of this year alone, the
influx has exceeded $50 billion.
Foreign migrant workers in Russia constitute another factor in the movement
of capital to and from the country. Denis Rodionov says the guest workers from
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and other former Soviet republics create a
win-win situation for all of the nations involved.
Rodionov says the cheap labor is needed, given the country's shortage of
workers and declining population. At the same time, he adds, other countries get
money transfers and the possibility to develop their economies.
Many Russians held so-called under-the-mattress dollars following the Soviet
collapse in 1991 and the country's 1998 financial crisis. Analysts say some
people continue to hold American currency, because it is psychologically
difficult to sell $1 for under 26 rubles, its current value, if somebody paid 30
rubles for it in 2003.
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