特朗普沒準真能贏：五個理由

共和黨目前排名第二的候選人克魯茲宣布退選。這意味著特朗普將穩獲提名。難道跋扈囂張、口無遮攔、敵視女性、言論充滿民粹色彩的特朗普真能當選美國總統？外媒撰文稱，這并非沒有可能。

Here are five reasons why Donald Trump could actually become president:
唐納德·特朗普是否真能成為美國總統？以下列舉5個理由：

“It’s the Economy, Stupid.”
“問題是經濟，笨蛋！”

That’s a famous Carville dictum (from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign). It could sum up Trump’s chances, too, given the well-documented stagnation of America’s middle class and the possibility of another economic slowdown.
這是一個卡維爾的名言（源自1992年比爾·克林頓競選期間）。或許也能判斷特朗普獲勝的機率，眾所周知，美國中產階級萎縮，或將迎來另一輪經濟下行。

Republican Weakness
共和黨的問題

Some Republicans and conservative commentators are warning Republicans that they face a “Joe McCarthy Moment,” in which they must repudiate Trump or risk the wrath of history’s judgment.
部分共和黨人與保守派評論員都警告黨內人士，他們面臨著“喬·麥卡錫時代”，因此，黨內必須否決特朗普，否則將承擔歷史審判之痛。

But GOP leaders such as Chairman Reince Priebus are more interested in immediate peace than their place in history, and amenable characters such as former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have said that nominating Trump is no big deal.
但是比起歷史地位，像普里巴斯主席這樣的共和黨領導人則更在意眼下的和平，而跟前猶他州州長喬恩·亨茨曼（又名洪博培）一類的溫和派曾表示，提名特朗普并無大礙。

Journalistic Weakness
新聞業的問題

It comes in two flavors. One is false equivalence. Reporters have yet to fully examine Trump’s record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be yoked with and compared to Clinton’s, which will make it easier for Trump to slide by in the resulting din.
體現為兩個方面。首先是“假對等”。記者并未對特朗普的個人歷史進行全面調查，尤其是在商業運作以及個人生活的細節方面，卻很快就將他的事跡與希拉里相提并論，輕易將特朗普置于輿論中心。

The second flavor is the media’s hunger for an audience. The closer Trump gets to the White House, the more frightening he becomes, the more desperate his enemies become – the more eyeballs are focused on smartphones and TV sets.
第二個方面則是，媒體渴望獲得更大的關注度。特朗普離白宮的距離越近，他就會愈加令人恐懼，他的對手也會因此感到更加絕望。如此一來，人們會更加關注智能手機和電視上的最新報道。

That means more billions in “free” media for Trump.
這意味著，媒體會報道幾十億條有關特朗普的消息，相當于免費給特朗普做宣傳。

Hillary the “Incumbent.”
希拉里任現任國務卿

As much as Clinton talks about new ideas and a fresh start, she will be attempting the difficult task of holding the White House for the same party for a third-straight term. That last happened in 1988.
希拉里講述了許多有關美國的新想法和新開端，因此，她將試圖擔當重任，代表民主黨連任三期總統，上一次同黨派連任發生在1988年。

More important, Clinton and her husband represent a force in the Democratic Party that is a kind of incumbency within an incumbency, and that is a perilous place to be at a time when voters so despise Washington.
更重要的是，希拉里和她的丈夫代表著民主黨的強大勢力，民主黨派是美國兩大主要政黨之一。而選民強烈鄙視華盛頓的情況，對希拉里極為不利。

The Numbers
贏得大量選票

Shockingly – given his outrageous, race-baiting and even violence-tinged rhetoric – Trump is not that far behind in the horse race as the “fall” campaign informally begins.
盡管特朗普性格蠻橫，有種族偏見，甚至還常常發表暴力言論，但是令人震驚的是，特朗普并沒有在“秋季”非正式總統競選中落后選票。

With the possible exception of Arizona, there are few, if any, red states that he would likely lose. There are also at least five large blue states in which he could compete. Together, they represent more than enough electoral votes to send Trump to the White House.
可能除美國亞利桑那州以外，特朗普在紅色州（選民傾向于投票給共和黨的州）失去選票的幾率很小。同時，特朗普至少可以在五個藍色大州（選民傾向于投票給民主黨的州）獲得大量選票。將紅色州和藍色州獲得的選票相加，特朗普獲得的選票足以讓他問鼎白宮。

克魯茲宣布退選視頻：

Vocabulary

dictum: 格言
repudiate: 拒絕接受
amenable: 肯接受的
yoke: 結合；聯系

英文來源：赫芬頓郵報
譯者：Lanxin（中國日報網愛新聞iNews譯者）
審校&編輯：丹妮