人口定時炸彈：日本人“瀕危”的8個跡象

要論世界上壽命最長的國家，日本總能遙遙領先。但是對于生育率極低的日本來說，這一長壽優勢只能加劇惡性循環，甚至催生出了不少怪象，比如，成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲，監獄變成養老院，和朋友結婚等等。專家估算，長此以往，日本人將在3776年滅絕。

Japan is dealing with what economists call a "demographic time bomb."
日本正面臨經濟學家所謂的“人口定時炸彈”威脅。

Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country's economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years.
受制于低生育率和低消費性開支的惡性循環，日本的經濟在過去25年正逐漸縮水。

People are living longer, and they're heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren't having kids to replace them — thereby furthering the cycle.
人們的壽命變長了，老人們滾雪球一樣的社保負擔被轉嫁到了年輕一代的身上，而年輕一代又沒有生育出可以替代自己的孩子，于是這種惡性循環進一步加劇。

Here are some of the most visible signs in daily life that the time bomb is ticking.
以下是最能反映日本人口炸彈危機的日常跡象。

There are now 68,000 people over 100 years old.
現在日本100歲以上的老人已經有68000位。

To put Japan's widespread aging in perspective, 2017 marked the 47th straight year that the country has broken its own record for the number of centenarians, or people living past their 100th birthday.
要想清楚意識到日本普遍老齡化的現狀，有一個事實是你必須知道的：2017年是日本百歲老人數量連續第47年打破紀錄。

In 2016, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2017 stands at 67,824, The Asahi Shimbun reported in September.
2016年，日本1.27億人口中，大約有65000位百歲老人。根據《朝日新聞》今年9月報道的新數據，2017年百歲老人總數達到了67824位。

Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The US, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.
日本的百歲老人占比是全世界最高的，每10萬人中就有4.8個百歲老人。在百歲老人總數最多的美國，每10萬人中才有2.2個百歲老人。

Adult diapers outsell baby diapers.
成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲。

Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.
自從2011年以來，日本成人紙尿褲的銷量就超過了嬰兒紙尿褲。

The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is: People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7% of them are seniors.
這一潮流反映出老年群體是多么龐大：日本65歲以上的人比其他任何年齡段的人都要多。日本共有1.27億人口，而老年人就占了26.7%。

That proportion is up 3.7 percentage points from six years ago.
老年人占的比例相比六年前上升了3.7個百分點。