有才華不如有好運氣？科學家近日發(fā)現，想致富，靠運氣。難怪古今中外有那么多懷才不遇的人，原來才華和物質意義上的成功并沒有關聯。研究指出，最富有的人往往是那些資質平凡但很幸運的人。

If you're wondering why your peers seem to be prospering way more than you are, it might not be because they're better at their jobs: it's probably just down to random chance, according to a new computer model of wealth simulation.
如果你奇怪你的同齡人為什么比你混得更好，這也許并不是因為他們更能干，而很可能只是因為他們運氣好。這是電腦上的財富模擬模型計算出的最新結果。

Charting a working lifespan of 40 years, the detailed computer simulation accurately reproduced the wealth distribution model of the real world, but found that those at the top of the money pile were the luckiest, not the most talented.
借助于這一詳細的模擬算法，電腦準確再現了40年間現實世界的財富分布模式，但卻發(fā)現，擁有最多財富的是最幸運的那些人，而不是最有才華的那些人。

The aim of the study from researchers at the University of Catania in Italy is not to make you despair at the futility of life, but to understand the role that chance plays in the way we invest our time and resources in multiple fields.
意大利卡塔尼亞大學的研究人員開展的這項研究，目的不是要讓你哀嘆人生的徒勞，而在于讓你理解我們在各個領域投入時間和資源時運氣所發(fā)揮的作用。

The conundrum they set out to solve is this: if talent, intelligence, willingness to work and other factors that would typically help you get on in life are quite evenly distributed among the population, why isn't wealth?
研究人員想要解決的難題是：如果才華、智力、工作積極性和其他能幫你在人生中獲得成功的因素在人群中是均勻分布的，那么為什么財富不是均勻分布的呢？

Broadly speaking, 10 percent of humanity enjoys 85 percent of the wealth, but talent and smartness aren't hoarded by a select few to anywhere near the same extent – so what's the hidden ingredient?
廣義地說，10%的人享有85%的財富，但才華和智慧并不是專屬于少數一部分人，有才和聰明的人遠遠不止10%，那么隱含的致富秘方是什么呢？

"Our simulation clearly shows that such a factor is just pure luck," write the researchers.
研究人員寫道：“我們的模型清楚地顯示，這種因素就是純粹的運氣。”

The team started off with 1,000 computer-generated individuals, or agents, though the model can be adapted to any size. Talent is distributed normally around an average level, with some standard deviation – so in the model, everyone has some talent, but no one has a huge amount more or less than anyone else.
該研究團隊用電腦生成了1000個個體（模型可生成無限多個個體），才華均勻地分布在每個個體上，部分個體有一些標準偏差，也就是說，在模型中，每個人都有一些才華，但沒有哪個人的才華和其他人差距很大。

Agents were exposed to a certain number of lucky (green circles) and unlucky (red circles) events. (University of Catania)

Meanwhile, everyone starts off with the same level of wealth.
與此同時，每個人的財富值在起點都是同樣多的。

Random events are then introduced into the simulation, which the agents can use to increase their wealth if they're lucky, or which hit their wealth levels if they're unlucky.
之后模型引入了一些隨機的事件，如果幸運的話，一些個體可以借助這些事件來增加他們的財富，如果運氣差的話，這些事件會讓部分個體的財富減少。

When the final results were analysed, the wealth distribution looked much like it does in the real world, with around 20 percent of people owning 80 percent of the wealth. The simulation was repeated several times to check its integrity.
在分析最終結果時，財富的分布和現實世界非常相似，20%的人擁有80%的財富。模型重復運行了好幾次，來確認其一致性。

But the wealthiest 20 percent were not the most talented 20 percent, or indeed the least talented 20 percent: "the maximum success never coincides with the maximum talent, and vice-versa" according to the researchers.
但是最富有的20%并不是最有才華的20%，也不是最沒有才華的20%，研究人員表示：“最大的成功從來也不會和最多的才華重合，反之亦然。”

In fact, the top earners ended up being those with talent somewhere near the general average. What's more, the people at the top of the wealth pyramid had experienced the luckiest events during their simulated lives, while those at the bottom had been hit by the unluckiest ones.
事實上，最后掙得最多的人往往是那些才華接近平均線的人。而且，位于財富金字塔頂層的人在模擬人生中經歷過最幸運的事情，而那些位于金字塔底層的人曾遭遇過最不幸的事情。

The team behind the study now want to explore how the model can be used to maximise investments in everything from science funding to business practices. For example, it may be wise to invest resources equally among companies, rather than focusing on the people who've been most successful in the past, if luck plays such a big role.
該研究團隊現在想探究如何運用模型實現科學基金和商務活動等各種投資的收益最大化。打個比方，如果運氣是如此重要，也許明智的做法是將資源均等地投入到多個公司，而不是將資源投入到以往最成功的那些人身上。

"If it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals," conclude the researchers.
研究人員總結道：“即便一定程度的才華確實是成功人生的必要條件，但是最有才華的人往往不能獲得最大的成功，打敗他們的是那些資質平凡但相當幸運的人。”

英文來源：Science Alert
翻譯&編輯：丹妮