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startling new household survey of Iraqis released last week claims as many as 1.2 million people may have died because of the conflict in Iraq
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A startling new household survey of Iraqis released last week claims as many as 1.2 million people may have died because of the conflict in Iraq - apparently lending weight to a 2006 survey in the Lancet that reported similarly high levels.
The estimates, extrapolated from a sample of 1,461 adults around the country, were collected by a British polling agency, ORB, which asked Iraqis how many people living in their household had died as a result of the violence.
Previous estimates, most prominently collected by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, reported in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half this number, 654,965, as a likely figure in a possible range of 390,000 to 940,000.
Although the household survey was carried out by a polling organization, rather than by epidemiological researchers operating under the discipline of scientific peer review, it has again raised the specter that the 2003 invasion of Iraq has caused a far more substantial death toll than officially acknowledged by the US or UK governments or the Iraqi Ministry of Health.
The ORB survey follows an earlier report by the organization which suggested one in four Iraqi adults had had a family member killed. Their latest survey suggests that in Baghdad that number is as high as one in two. The poll also questioned the surviving relatives on how their loved ones were killed. It reveals 48 percent died from a gunshot wound, 20 percent from the impact of a car bomb, 9 percent from aerial bombardment, 6 percent by accident and 6 percent from another blast or ordnance.
If true, the latest figures would suggest the death toll in Iraq now exceeds that of the Rwandan genocide in which 800,000 died.
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(Agencies) |
據上周公布的一項最新伊拉克住戶調查顯示，多達120萬人死于伊戰及戰爭爆發以來的各種暴力沖突。這一令人震驚的結果進一步增加了《柳葉刀》雜志2006年一項調查結果的可信度，后者所統計的伊戰死亡人數也達到很高水平。
英國ORB民調機構對1461名伊拉克成年人進行了抽樣調查，統計這些人家里有多少人死于暴力沖突。
此前的大多數據由美國約翰斯?霍普金斯?布隆伯格公共衛生學院收集統計，據2006年10月在《柳葉刀》雜志上公布的統計報告顯示，伊戰死亡人數可能在39萬至94萬之間，很可能為654965人，約為最新統計結果的近一半。
盡管該調查沒有采取流行病學研究領域的同行評議形式，而是由民調機構入戶調查，但調查結果再次引起恐懼：開始于2003年的伊拉克戰爭所造成的死亡人數已遠遠超過英美兩國及伊拉克衛生部公認的官方統計數據。
ORB民調機構此前的一份報告顯示，每四個伊拉克成年人中就有一人有家屬遇難。最新調查發現，巴格達的這一比例高達二分之一（兩個人中有一人有家人遇難）。調查還詢問了調查對象的家屬是如何喪生的。結果發現，48%的人死于槍傷，20%的人死于汽車炸彈，9%的人死于空襲， 6%的人死于意外及其他爆炸或襲擊。
如果這一數字屬實，伊戰的死亡人數現已超過盧旺達大屠殺的80萬人。
（于楠 英語點津姍姍編輯）
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