久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Ups and downs of renminbi

By Yu Yongding (China Daily) Updated: 2012-02-09 08:11

Short-term capital flows make exchange rate more volatile, posing new challenges for decision-makers in China and US

From July 2005 until December last year, China's renminbi appreciated steadily. The exchange rate then unexpectedly fell, hitting the bottom of the daily trading band set by the People's Bank of China for 11 sessions in a row. Though the renminbi has since returned to its previous trajectory of slow appreciation, the episode may have signaled a permanent change in the pattern of the exchange rate's movement.

As long as China was running a trade surplus and receiving net inflows of foreign direct investment, the renminbi remained under upward pressure. Short-term capital flows had little impact on the direction of the renminbi's exchange rate.

There were two reasons for this. First, thanks to an effective, albeit porous, capital-control regime in China, short-term "hot money", capital coming into China aimed at arbitrage, rent-seeking, and speculation, could not enter and then leave freely and swiftly. Second, short-term capital flows usually would strengthen rather than weaken upward pressure on the renminbi's exchange rate, because speculators, persuaded by China's gradual approach to revaluation, bet on appreciation.

So why, if China was still running a decent current-account surplus and a long-term capital surplus, did the renminbi suddenly depreciate, forcing the central bank to intervene, although not very vigorously, to prevent it from falling further?

Many economists outside of China have argued that the December depreciation resulted from betting by investors that Chinese policymakers, facing the prospect of a hard landing for the economy, would slow or halt currency appreciation. But if that were true, we would now be seeing significant long-term capital outflows and heavy selling of the renminbi for US dollars in China's foreign-exchange market.

We see neither reaction. More importantly, the renminbi's slow appreciation resumed fairly promptly after December's dip, while investors' bearish sentiments about China's economy have remained consistent.

In fact, the renminbi's sudden fall in December reflects China's liberalization of cross-border capital flows. That process began in April 2009, when China launched the pilot Renminbi Trade Settlement Scheme, which enables enterprises, especially larger ones, to channel their funds between the Chinese mainland and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. As a result, an offshore renminbi market, known as the CNH market, was created in Hong Kong alongside the onshore market, now dubbed the CNY market.

In contrast to the CNY market, the CNH is a free market. Given expectations of renminbi appreciation and a positive interest-rate spread between the mainland and Hong Kong, the renminbi had a higher value in dollar terms on the CNH market than on the CNY market. That difference led to active exchange-rate arbitrage by mainland importers and multinational firms - one form of capital inflows from Hong Kong to the mainland. Correspondingly, renminbi liabilities owed by mainland Chinese and multinationals increased, as did renminbi assets held by Hong Kong residents.

Exchange-rate arbitrage by mainland importers and multinationals creates upward pressure on the CNY market and downward pressure on the CNH market. In an economy with flexible interest and exchange rates, arbitrage eliminates the exchange-rate spread quickly. But, because China's exchange rate and interest rates are inflexible, the CNH-CNY spread persists, and arbitragers are able to reap fat profits at the economy's expense.

Last September, however, the financial conditions in Hong Kong changed suddenly. The liquidity shortage caused by the European sovereign debt crisis led developed countries' banks - especially European banks with exposure in Hong Kong - to withdraw their funds, taking US dollars with them. As a result, the CNH fell against the dollar. At the same time, the shortage of dollars had not yet affected the CNY, which remained relatively stable.

The CNH therefore became cheaper than the CNY. Consequently, mainland importers and multinationals stopped buying US dollars from the CNH market and returned to the CNY market. At the same time, mainland exporters stopped selling dollars in the CNY market and turned to the CNH market.

The dollar shortage created depreciation pressures on the CNY, which China's central bank declined to offset. The CNY was thus bound to fall, which it did last September.

Reverse arbitrage meant capital outflows from the mainland. Correspondingly, renminbi liabilities owed by mainlanders and multinationals decreased, as did renminbi assets held in Hong Kong. In fact, increases in financing costs and uncertainty about renminbi appreciation prompted a partial sell-off of renminbi assets by Hong Kong residents.

In short, because the Renminbi Trade Settlement Scheme made cross-border capital movements much easier, short-term flows have become a major factor in determining the renminbi's exchange rate. External shocks affect the offshore exchange rate first, and then feed through to the onshore exchange rate.

The renminbi will continue to appreciate in the near future, owing to strong economic fundamentals, but the inherent instability of short-term capital flows will make its exchange rate more volatile. This change is bound to pose new challenges for decision-makers in the United States and China, particularly as they engage in a fresh round of debate about China's exchange-rate policy.

The author is president of the China Society of World Economics and a former member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China. Project Syndicate

(China Daily 02/09/2012 page8)

Most Viewed Today's Top News
New type of urbanization is in the details
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    国产欧美精品一区二区三区四区| 国产精品视频观看| 狠狠色丁香久久婷婷综合_中 | 欧美激情一区二区三区四区| 国产精品小仙女| 国产精品色哟哟| 色狠狠桃花综合| 日韩电影在线一区| 久久影院午夜片一区| 国产精品水嫩水嫩| 色综合咪咪久久| 国产一区二区三区精品欧美日韩一区二区三区 | 欧美韩国日本一区| 91麻豆精品视频| 午夜欧美电影在线观看| 91精品国产福利在线观看| 国内外成人在线| 亚洲天堂a在线| 欧美日韩国产精选| 国产一区二区三区免费看| 亚洲日本中文字幕区| 在线播放国产精品二区一二区四区| 久久99精品国产91久久来源| 国产精品乱人伦| 欧美顶级少妇做爰| 国产a区久久久| 亚洲第一综合色| 2024国产精品| 色婷婷精品大视频在线蜜桃视频| 日韩不卡一区二区三区| 欧美国产精品中文字幕| 欧美日韩亚洲综合一区| 国产精品夜夜嗨| 亚洲制服丝袜在线| 久久这里只有精品视频网| 色噜噜狠狠成人中文综合| 久久精品国产99久久6| 亚洲欧洲国产专区| 日韩欧美一级精品久久| 91天堂素人约啪| 久久国产精品区| 一区二区三区日韩精品视频| 精品国产伦一区二区三区免费 | 91麻豆国产福利精品| 美国十次综合导航| 亚洲欧美电影一区二区| 精品国产一区二区三区久久久蜜月 | 日韩在线观看一区二区| 国产精品无人区| 91精品国产欧美一区二区18| 99久久综合狠狠综合久久| 麻豆成人av在线| 一个色在线综合| 国产农村妇女毛片精品久久麻豆| 欧美男女性生活在线直播观看| 成人免费看黄yyy456| 日本欧美大码aⅴ在线播放| 国产精品久久久爽爽爽麻豆色哟哟 | 亚洲电影一区二区三区| 国产精品天干天干在观线| 日韩亚洲欧美成人一区| 欧洲色大大久久| 不卡视频在线观看| 久久99精品视频| 亚洲动漫第一页| 亚洲精品一卡二卡| 国产精品污www在线观看| 精品国产百合女同互慰| 欧美精品第1页| 色婷婷激情综合| 波多野结衣中文字幕一区二区三区| 美女视频一区二区| 亚洲成人在线观看视频| 亚洲视频1区2区| 国产精品人妖ts系列视频| 精品久久一区二区| 欧美高清视频www夜色资源网| 一本在线高清不卡dvd| 成人午夜私人影院| 国产麻豆精品在线观看| 美国三级日本三级久久99| 性久久久久久久| 亚洲一区二区免费视频| 亚洲人成人一区二区在线观看| 国产精品系列在线| 欧美国产亚洲另类动漫| 久久久精品免费网站| 精品国产伦一区二区三区观看方式 | 日韩欧美综合一区| 欧美肥胖老妇做爰| 777久久久精品| 欧美少妇bbb| 欧美在线观看一区二区| 色综合av在线| 色婷婷av一区二区三区gif | 欧美性生活久久| 色哦色哦哦色天天综合| 色婷婷综合中文久久一本| 91一区二区在线| 色天天综合色天天久久| 一本高清dvd不卡在线观看| 91麻豆swag| 色嗨嗨av一区二区三区| 欧美性xxxxxx少妇| 欧美色老头old∨ideo| 欧美三级在线看| 欧美日韩在线三区| 911精品国产一区二区在线| 91麻豆精品国产91久久久久久久久| 欧美丰满少妇xxxxx高潮对白 | 欧美精品aⅴ在线视频| 欧美日本在线观看| 欧美一区二区三区精品| 日韩精品中文字幕一区二区三区 | 午夜成人免费视频| 日韩成人精品在线| 国产综合久久久久久久久久久久| 国产综合久久久久影院| 成人性视频网站| 91色porny蝌蚪| 精品污污网站免费看| 9191成人精品久久| 精品久久久久av影院| 国产亚洲精品超碰| 国产精品福利一区| 亚洲一二三四区| 日本va欧美va精品发布| 国产在线国偷精品免费看| 大胆欧美人体老妇| 色婷婷精品久久二区二区蜜臂av| 精品视频999| 欧美电影免费观看高清完整版在 | 国产福利精品一区| 91视频在线观看| 欧美精选在线播放| 欧美精品一区二区久久久| 中日韩av电影| 亚洲福利一二三区| 国产一区二区三区观看| 99久久久久久| 9191久久久久久久久久久| 国产亚洲欧洲一区高清在线观看| 国产精品的网站| 亚洲国产精品一区二区久久恐怖片 | 色婷婷久久久亚洲一区二区三区 | 美国欧美日韩国产在线播放| 粉嫩一区二区三区在线看| 在线免费观看一区| 日韩欧美在线不卡| 国产精品乱子久久久久| 日韩国产欧美一区二区三区| 国产高清成人在线| 欧美中文字幕一区| 欧美成人猛片aaaaaaa| 亚洲色图.com| 蜜臀久久久久久久| av电影天堂一区二区在线观看| 欧美另类高清zo欧美| 国产欧美一区二区精品婷婷| 亚洲宅男天堂在线观看无病毒| 久久不见久久见中文字幕免费| 99在线热播精品免费| 欧美一区二区精美| 中文字幕一区二区三区精华液| 青青草97国产精品免费观看 | 成人av免费在线播放| 欧美酷刑日本凌虐凌虐| 国产日韩欧美a| 午夜激情一区二区三区| 暴力调教一区二区三区| 日韩一级片在线观看| 亚洲女子a中天字幕| 国产在线观看一区二区| 欧美午夜寂寞影院| 国产精品私人影院| 久久精品国产第一区二区三区| 在线精品视频一区二区三四| 久久精品一区四区| 日韩精品福利网| 一本色道a无线码一区v| 国产婷婷精品av在线| 日韩精品色哟哟| 91福利在线看| 欧美国产精品专区| 精品一区二区国语对白| 欧美日韩你懂的| 《视频一区视频二区| 国产一二精品视频| 欧美精品精品一区| 一区二区三区鲁丝不卡| 成人综合婷婷国产精品久久| 日韩欧美黄色影院| 亚洲国产日韩a在线播放性色| 成年人国产精品| 国产亚洲污的网站| 国产综合久久久久影院| 欧美一级一级性生活免费录像| 亚洲资源在线观看| 色婷婷国产精品综合在线观看| 国产精品电影院|