At present, the core competitiveness of Middle East countries is very low. The Middle East is home to about 400 million people, but its exports, apart from oil, are equivalent only to that of Switzerland. So, in the aftermath of the "Arab Spring", the region's countries have to develop their economies in order to restore peace and order, which will be a long and arduous process.

The fourth factor is the game being played by regional forces. The complicated ethnic, religious and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have helped maintain the regional balance of power. On one hand, countries in an advantageous position, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are eager to dominate the region. On the other, countries like Iran and Iraq could join hands to demand a more prominent role in the region. And history tells us that the "geopolitical characteristic" of the Middle East can overwhelm any ideology.

In the next decade, China is likely to increase its investment and thus demand a greater say in the Middle East. China may be a latecomer to global power politics, but because of its rise and deepening interaction with other big countries, it will demand more attention in the Middle East.

The Middle East is a region with the highest concentration of contentious issues and most intense diplomatic struggles. Hence, it offers China an opportunity to spread its diplomatic principles of respecting other countries' sovereignty and opposing external interference in a country's internal affairs, as well as enhance its soft power.

Apart from offering China a chance to secure its energy supply, the Middle East will continue to slow down the pace of the US' eastward strategic shift because of its complex issues.

Also, the region's countries will be more dependent on China in the next decade as the global power center continues to shift to the East. The Middle East countries regard China as an important partner, which can help them expand their international space, balance the impact of the old powers and promote economic development. The next decade, thus, could see the region's countries' "Look East" strategy being put into practice.

Moreover, China's investment in the Middle East will increase gradually so as not to disturb its geopolitical and economic balance. Therefore, China's diplomacy should gear up to face the challenges of the Middle East such as lack of security and financial arrangements.

China understands that other external factors also influence the situation in the Middle East. For example, it has vetoed three Western countries-backed UN resolutions on the Syrian crisis partly because of what happened in Libya and the US' eastward strategic shift.

China will cooperate and compete with the US-led Western countries in the Middle East but avoid a head-on confrontation with them. Sino-US relations should not, and cannot, be a zero-sum game in the Middle East. That the US will lose its dominant position in the region is becoming increasingly evident. But China's strategic investment in the Middle East should not be aimed at ending the US' traditional influence in the region.

China has just set foot in the Middle East, and its engagement there is not directed at ending the US' dominance. Since China has no core interests in the Middle East, it can reach a compromise with the US on the regional affairs.

The Middle East will continue to experience unrest and see regional powers fighting to establish hegemony in the next decade. China should try to make a difference for the better in such matters.

The author, a former ambassador to Iran, is a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies.

(China Daily 01/08/2013 page9)