As far as Venezuela-US relations are concerned, the future points to certain possibilities. The tense relations between Caracas and Washington are likely to ease, even though diplomatic ties between the two countries are yet to normalize. The degree of progress will depend on the diplomatic game the two countries play and their domestic political demands. But owing to Venezuela's political and economic stability, and oil security, the new government may ease its anti-US stance, drawing a similar response from Washington.

Since oil plays a key role in both countries' economic and political policies, it will help prevent bilateral relations from worsening. Plus, the US could review its policy toward Venezuela with an eye on its overall interest in Latin America. But if for any reason the US bans oil imports from Venezuela, the latter's economy could get into trouble. The US' geopolitical and strategic interests in Latin America, however, demand that Venezuela continue to enjoy its political, economic and social stability.

The security of Venezuela's oil exports and the US' oil imports are, to a certain degree, interdependent. Venezuela is still the third largest source of crude oil for the US. The US remains Venezuela's largest trading partner and has invested about $12 billion in Venezuela, while Venezuela has an investment of about $4 billion in the US. The US is also Venezuela's largest source of trade surplus and has a decisive influence on Venezuela's international balance of payment and foreign exchange reserve accumulation.

Oil diplomacy is an important strategic tool of Venezuela's foreign policy, and it has been trying to diversify its oil exports and tap new investment partners to free itself of US dependence. But it has not been able to do so despite the success of its strategy and the resultant increase in exports to Asian and Latin American countries.

Given the situation, the new Venezuelan government is likely to secure its oil exports and financing sources, as well as ensure the smooth import of important commodities to overcome its economic difficulties. Therefore, apart from maintaining ties with its leftist allies in Latin America, it will also want to expand its economic and trade cooperation with China, Russia and other major powers.

Improvement in US-Venezuela relations, however, remains a tricky issue because despite hoping to maintain cooperation with Caracas in drug control, anti-terrorism, security and other matters, Washington will continue its hard-line stance on issues such as democracy and human rights.

But Chavez's death will not alter the unity and cooperation mechanism of Latin America, and the region will continue to tread a development path suitable to regional conditions. As a region with a number of emerging economies, Latin America's global influence has continued to rise in recent years, which should make it more confident to work for regional development and an independent foreign policy, which Chavez had been working for.

The author is an associate professor with the Institute of Latin American Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 03/12/2013 page10)