US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
    Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

    The return of the renminbi rant

    By Stephen S.Roach (China Daily) Updated: 2014-05-05 07:39

    China's currency, the renminbi, has been weakening in recent months, resurrecting familiar charges of manipulation, competitive devaluation, and beggar-thy-neighbor mercantilism. In mid-April, the US Treasury expressed "particularly serious concerns" over this development, underscoring what has long been one of the most contentious economic-policy issues between the United States and China.

    This is a timeworn debate - politically inspired and grounded in bad economics - that does a serious disservice to both sides by diverting attention from far more important issues affecting the US-China economic relationship. Taken to its extreme, America's accusations risk pushing the world's two largest economies down the slippery slope of trade frictions, protectionism, or something even worse.

    First, the facts: Since hitting its high watermark on January 14, the renminbi has depreciated by 3.4 percent relative to the US dollar through April 25. This follows a cumulative appreciation of 37 percent since July 21, 2005, when China dropped its dollar peg and shifted its currency regime to a so-called "managed float." Relative to where it started nearly nine years ago, the renminbi is still up 32.5 percent.

    Over the same period, there has been a dramatic adjustment of China's international balance-of-payments position. The current-account surplus - the most telling symptom of an undervalued currency - has narrowed from a record 10.1 percent of GDP in 2007 to just 2.1 percent in 2013. The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast suggests that the surplus will hold at around 2 percent of GDP in 2014.

    Seen against this background, US officials' handwringing over the recent modest reversal in the renminbi's exchange rate appears absurd. With China's external position much closer to balance, there is good reason to argue that the renminbi, having appreciated by nearly one-third since mid-2005, is now within a reasonable proximity of "fair value." The IMF conceded as much in its latest in-depth review of the Chinese economy, which calls the renminbi "moderately undervalued" by 5-10 percent. This stands in contrast to its earlier assessments of "substantial" undervaluation.

    America's fixation on the renminbi is a classic case of political denial. With US workers remaining under intense pressure in terms of both job security and real wages, politicians have understandably been put on the spot. In response, they have fixated on the Chinese component of a long-gaping trade deficit, charging that currency manipulation is the culprit to the long festering woes of the American middle class.

    This argument is politically expedient - but wrong. The US trade deficit is a multilateral imbalance with many countries - 102 in all - not a bilateral problem with China. It arises not from the alleged manipulation of the renminbi, but from the simple fact that America does not save.

    Lacking in domestic savings and wanting to grow, the US must import surplus savings from abroad, and run massive current-account deficits to attract the foreign capital. And that leads to America's multilateral trade imbalance. Yes, trade with China is the largest component of this imbalance, but that largely reflects the complexity of multinational supply chains and the benefits of offshore efficiency solutions.

    Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

    Most Viewed Today's Top News
    New type of urbanization is in the details
    ...
    无码国内精品久久人妻| 无码人妻少妇久久中文字幕蜜桃| 久久精品中文字幕一区 | 亚洲精品一级无码鲁丝片| 国产日韩AV免费无码一区二区| 亚洲Av无码乱码在线观看性色| 亚洲AV无码国产精品麻豆天美 | 少妇人妻偷人精品无码视频新浪| 三级理论中文字幕在线播放| 高h纯肉无码视频在线观看| 亚洲人成网亚洲欧洲无码久久| 国产中文字幕在线观看| 亚洲?V无码成人精品区日韩 | 中文字幕在线视频第一页| 中文字幕一区二区人妻性色| 东京热加勒比无码视频| 久久青青草原亚洲av无码app| 国产台湾无码AV片在线观看| 少妇中文无码高清| 国产区精品一区二区不卡中文 | 亚洲免费无码在线| 成在人线av无码免费高潮水| 色综合久久久久无码专区| 亚洲中文久久精品无码ww16| 中文字幕在线视频第一页| 亚洲日韩中文在线精品第一| 天堂中文字幕在线| 最近免费中文字幕大全免费 | 最近完整中文字幕2019电影| 中文字幕乱码久久午夜| 亚洲av中文无码乱人伦在线播放 | 无码少妇一区二区浪潮av| 50岁人妻丰满熟妇αv无码区| 国精无码欧精品亚洲一区| 久久人妻少妇嫩草AV无码专区 | 五月婷婷无码观看| 日韩A无码AV一区二区三区| 精选观看中文字幕高清无码| 亚洲 另类 无码 在线| 精品久久久久久无码中文字幕一区 | 午夜不卡无码中文字幕影院|