久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Reform can prevent Japan-like debt crisis

By STEPHEN ROACH (China Daily) Updated: 2016-06-30 08:25

Reform can prevent Japan-like debt crisis
Wang Xiaoying / China Daily

Despite deepening concerns about China's economy, the country is not heading toward "lost decades" of Japan-style stagnation. And yet a worrisome ambiguity clouds this verdict.

China's non-financial debt has increased from 150 percent of GDP in 2008 to 255 percent today, with two-thirds of the increase concentrated in the corporate sector, largely State-owned enterprises. Since China has the highest savings rate in the world-its gross domestic saving averaging 49 percent of GDP since 2007-its surging debt hardly comes as a surprise. Economies with high savings are prone to high investment, and the lack of capital market reform in China-exacerbated by the bursting of the equity bubble in 2015-reinforces the disproportionate role that bank credit has played in funding the country's investment boom.

The Japan comparison is especially instructive in assessing the risks of debt-intensive growth. At nearly 390 percent of GDP in late 2015, Japan's overall debt ratio is about 140 percentage points higher than China's. But because Japan has such a high savings rate-averaging 24 percent of GDP since 2007-it basically owes its debt to itself. That means it is not vulnerable to the capital flight of foreign investors that often triggers crises.

With China's savings rate double that of Japan's since 2007, that conclusion is all the more pertinent for its debt-intensive economy. The China scare of early 2016-stoked by hand-wringing over capital flight and currency risk-missed this point altogether. Fears of a hard landing stemming from a Chinese debt crisis are vastly overblown.

Zombie companies-the economic walking dead-are also a topic of intense discussion in China. Key actors in Japan's first lost decade in the 1990s, zombie corporations were kept alive by the "ever-greening" of subsidized bank lending-masking an outsize build-up of non-performing loans (NPLs) that ultimately brought down the Japanese banking system. Significantly, the insidious interplay between zombie corporations and zombie banks clogged the arteries of the real economy-leading to a sharp slowdown in productivity growth that Japan has yet to reverse.

In recent public statements, the Chinese leadership has made explicit reference to zombie SOEs. And, unlike Japan, which remained in denial over this problem for close to a decade, the Chinese authorities have moved relatively quickly to rein in excesses in two key industries-steel and coal-while hinting of more to come in cement, glass and shipbuilding.

China's deteriorating loan quality is also reminiscent of Japan's experience. The official NPL ratio of 1.7 percent for listed banks is only the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface are "special mention loans"-where borrowers are in the early stages of repayment difficulties-along with bad credits in the shadow banking sector, both of which could raise China's fully-loaded NPL ratio to about 8 percent. In that case, the authorities will eventually need to inject capital into the Chinese banking system.

None of this is a dark secret in Beijing. On the contrary, an interview in early May with an "authoritative insider", published in China's flagship official newspaper, People's Daily, underscored an increasingly open and intense debate over how to avoid ending up like Japan. The insider highlighted the insidious connection between China's debt and zombie problems that might well culminate in a Japan-like "L-shaped" endgame.

This gets to the heart of the China-Japan comparison. Two and a half lost decades (and counting) is simply an unacceptable outcome for China. But knowing what it doesn't want is not enough to guarantee that China won't fall into a Japan-style trap of its own.

Reforms are the decisive differentiating factor. Japan's failure to embrace structural reforms was a hallmark of the 1990s, and it is an equally serious impediment to the current "Abenomics" recovery program. By contrast, China's strategy emphasizes the heavy lifting of structural change and rebalancing. In the end, success or failure will hinge on the willingness of the Chinese leadership to confront the powerful vested interests resisting reform.

The author, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

Project Syndicate

Most Viewed Today's Top News
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    亚洲综合精品久久| 粉嫩绯色av一区二区在线观看| 91精品国产综合久久久久久久| 日韩激情一二三区| 精品国产乱码久久| 成人av在线一区二区| 亚洲影视资源网| 日韩亚洲欧美综合| 成人一区二区三区视频在线观看| 亚洲精品成人天堂一二三| 777午夜精品视频在线播放| 激情综合一区二区三区| 国产精品亲子伦对白| 91国内精品野花午夜精品| 日韩影院免费视频| 久久精品视频在线看| 色噜噜狠狠色综合中国| 免费久久精品视频| 日本韩国欧美国产| 欧美精品1区2区3区| 欧美日韩高清在线播放| 国产精品免费网站在线观看| 风间由美性色一区二区三区| 日韩视频免费观看高清完整版| 国产精品一区二区黑丝| 亚洲乱码国产乱码精品精的特点 | 中文字幕精品三区| 在线中文字幕一区二区| 免费观看一级欧美片| 国产欧美一区二区三区网站| 欧美私人免费视频| 国产一区二区三区| 亚洲一区二区在线免费观看视频| 日韩欧美国产综合| 色偷偷成人一区二区三区91 | 91视视频在线直接观看在线看网页在线看| 亚洲一区二区三区免费视频| 久久精品一区二区三区不卡牛牛| 欧美中文字幕久久| 国产成人精品综合在线观看| 午夜在线电影亚洲一区| 国产精品无码永久免费888| 欧美另类久久久品| 91小视频在线免费看| 九九**精品视频免费播放| 亚洲综合图片区| 国产日韩欧美在线一区| 91精品综合久久久久久| av色综合久久天堂av综合| 久久国产免费看| 亚洲午夜影视影院在线观看| 国产精品私人影院| 日韩免费性生活视频播放| 欧美中文字幕一区二区三区 | 欧美精选一区二区| 99久久er热在这里只有精品66| 麻豆91精品视频| 夜夜嗨av一区二区三区网页 | 欧美激情综合在线| 日韩丝袜美女视频| 欧美综合一区二区三区| 成人动漫在线一区| 国产酒店精品激情| 麻豆精品国产传媒mv男同| 亚洲一区成人在线| 亚洲人精品午夜| 欧美精彩视频一区二区三区| 欧美大片日本大片免费观看| 欧美日韩www| 在线一区二区三区四区五区| 成人精品一区二区三区四区 | 亚洲一区在线视频| 综合激情网...| 中文av一区二区| 久久精品亚洲国产奇米99| 日韩精品一区二区三区视频在线观看 | 久久狠狠亚洲综合| 日一区二区三区| 亚洲综合视频网| 亚洲另类在线视频| 国产精品电影一区二区三区| 国产女主播视频一区二区| 亚洲精品在线观| 精品精品欲导航| 欧美一二三在线| 欧美一级在线观看| 69久久夜色精品国产69蝌蚪网| 欧美日韩中文字幕精品| 91黄色免费版| 在线观看网站黄不卡| 日本精品一级二级| 色婷婷精品大视频在线蜜桃视频| eeuss鲁一区二区三区| eeuss鲁片一区二区三区 | 不卡视频免费播放| 成人激情免费网站| 成人丝袜视频网| 成人白浆超碰人人人人| 成人一区二区在线观看| 成人午夜大片免费观看| 成人黄色片在线观看| 成人99免费视频| 99久久精品久久久久久清纯| 99久久精品国产网站| 91猫先生在线| 欧美在线播放高清精品| 欧美日韩五月天| 4438x成人网最大色成网站| 5月丁香婷婷综合| 日韩欧美国产电影| 久久久久久久久久久久电影| 国产女同性恋一区二区| 中文字幕中文字幕在线一区| 亚洲欧美日韩小说| 亚洲一区免费视频| 免费在线观看一区| 国产乱子轮精品视频| 成人少妇影院yyyy| thepron国产精品| 欧美写真视频网站| 日韩三级视频在线看| 国产午夜亚洲精品午夜鲁丝片| 国产精品久久久一本精品| 玉米视频成人免费看| 日韩精品国产精品| 国产一区在线看| 99精品桃花视频在线观看| 欧美在线三级电影| 日韩免费高清电影| 欧美国产日本韩| 亚洲综合一区二区| 毛片基地黄久久久久久天堂| 国产v综合v亚洲欧| 在线观看日韩精品| 日韩精品综合一本久道在线视频| 国产日韩亚洲欧美综合| 亚洲六月丁香色婷婷综合久久| 丝袜美腿亚洲综合| 国产精品一区久久久久| 色狠狠av一区二区三区| 欧美精品高清视频| 久久精品人人做人人综合| 亚洲精品乱码久久久久久久久| 日韩国产欧美在线视频| 成人性生交大合| 欧美日韩精品欧美日韩精品一| 精品国产在天天线2019| 亚洲日本在线看| 青草av.久久免费一区| 成人网男人的天堂| 正在播放一区二区| 国产精品视频一二三| 午夜影院久久久| 国产999精品久久久久久绿帽| 日本韩国欧美三级| 久久网站最新地址| 一区二区高清免费观看影视大全 | 日韩二区三区在线观看| 国产69精品一区二区亚洲孕妇| 欧美亚洲动漫精品| 久久精品亚洲精品国产欧美| 亚洲国产日产av| 高清不卡在线观看av| 欧美乱妇23p| 最新久久zyz资源站| 蜜臀91精品一区二区三区| 99这里只有久久精品视频| 欧美一区二区在线不卡| 亚洲日韩欧美一区二区在线| 精品一区二区三区av| 欧美亚洲动漫制服丝袜| 国产拍欧美日韩视频二区| 午夜精品一区二区三区三上悠亚| 成人午夜免费视频| 日韩视频在线一区二区| 一区二区三区四区蜜桃| 国产精品一区二区你懂的| 欧美精品日韩综合在线| 亚洲视频香蕉人妖| 国产精品一级黄| 91麻豆精品国产无毒不卡在线观看| 国产精品国产a级| 国内精品视频一区二区三区八戒| 欧美日韩一区不卡| 亚洲欧美综合另类在线卡通| 国产一区二区三区免费| 欧美精品vⅰdeose4hd| 亚洲伦在线观看| 粉嫩av一区二区三区在线播放 | 五月综合激情婷婷六月色窝| 不卡的电影网站| 久久久久久亚洲综合影院红桃 | 精品三级在线看| 午夜精品123| 一本到一区二区三区| 国产精品国产自产拍高清av| 国产一区二区成人久久免费影院| 91精品国产欧美一区二区成人| 一区二区成人在线视频| 99精品欧美一区|