久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Featured Contributors

China's Q3 indicates cyclical stabilization, secular challenges

By Dan Steinbock | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2016-10-25 14:18

China's Q3 indicates cyclical stabilization, secular challenges

Container boxes are seen at the Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, in Shanghai, September 24, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]

According to the third-quarter data, China's economy grew 6.7 percent for a third consecutive quarter. Critics claim otherwise. Yet, the real disagreement involves business cycles and secular trends.

China's sequential growth is now at 7.2 percent; fastest in three years. Manufacturing and service sectors may have bottomed around 2015/16 and have risen since, while consumer price inflation rose to 1.9 percent last month. After seasonal adjustments, exports and imports reflect stabilization as well.

Beijing's effort to rebalance the economy toward consumption and innovation has begun. In the first three quarters of the year, consumption accounted for 70 percent of GDP growth, almost twice as much as 37 percent attributed to investment.

Yet, skeptics argue that surging debt and property markets undermine stabilization.

Overstated skepticism

In August, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff sent grave warning about China's economy and its effects toward the world. As a former IMF chief economist and the co-author of a 2009 bestselling debt analysis, Rogoff and his comments carry weight in markets.

Rogoff builds his case on the debt-to-GDP gap. This ratio was developed after the global crisis to quantify '"excessive credit.” Large gaps (China's exceeds 30 percent) have been found to be an early warning indicator of banking crises or severe distress.

However, the ratio has also been criticized for measurement problems. It can also result in policies that conflict with intended goals; for instance, stringent austerity measures may aggravate challenges. Finally, credit gap has not been seen as an effective indicator for banking crises, especially in emerging economies.

When Rogoff and his co-author published the bestselling debt report This Time It Is Different (2009), their policy views were seized for neoliberal austerity. However, as austerity doctrines were implemented, especially in Europe, they made harsh economic challenges much worse. Second, as austerity critics, including the Nobel-awarded Paul Krugman, showed, the authors' methods were dictated by their ideological bias. Finally, the two had relied on flawed statistical methods.

So there is reason to be skeptical when austerity advocates overstate their case. Nevertheless, rapid credit growth in China is a matter of concern.

A long, bumpy landing

According to Rogoff, China is headed toward a '"hard landing.” Recently, he was seconded by Simon Baptist, chief economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit, whom I met in a Macau conference where we gave keynotes. Rogoff and Baptist believe that slowing growth in China translates to a hard landing. I believe the story is more complex.

Usually, hard landing is accompanied by central bank's rate hikes to slow growth. Yet, in China, the central bank, the PBOC, has been cutting rates down.

Typically, hard landing implies rising inflation. In 2015-17, Chinese inflation is expected to increase but remain between 1.5-2 percent.

Moreover, hard landing is predicated on a business cycle. Yet, China's cyclical growth seems to be stabilizing. And while hard landing often indicates recession, Chinese growth remains over 6 percent; 3-4 times faster than in advanced economies.

What China is experiencing is structural deceleration, not a cyclical recession. After intensive industrialization, such deceleration has been typical to all maturing economies. In China, it is also the goal of economic rebalancing.

Critics are right to note that as long as China's credit target of 13 percent is twice the nominal GDP, growth will be fueled by reduced quality. In the past two years, the banks' non-performing loans have almost doubled to nearly 6 percent. Yet, these facts are known in Beijing. Last May, a top government source described leverage as the source of all other risks, while advocating comprehensive reforms of State-owned enterprises (SOEs).

In China, the key problem is not a cyclical hard landing, but medium-term rebalancing; a secular challenge, which must be achieved as the economy is decelerating - and balanced with the reduction of local debt, property markets' disruptive fluctuations, the SOE reforms and the liberalization of the financial sector.

This quest is not unlike an effort to modernize a plane after the takeoff. Like post-industrialization in today's advanced economies, it virtually ensures a long and bumpy landing.

Dr Dan Steinbock is Guest Fellow of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). This commentary is based on his SIIS project on '"China and the multipolar world economy.”

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    欧美日韩国产天堂| www亚洲一区| 日韩电影免费在线| 欧美一级片在线看| 欧美日韩国产高清一区二区三区| 亚洲丰满少妇videoshd| 欧美一区二区视频在线观看2022| 精东粉嫩av免费一区二区三区| 国产女主播视频一区二区| 色诱视频网站一区| 婷婷综合在线观看| 久久久噜噜噜久久人人看| 99国产精品久久久久| 偷拍亚洲欧洲综合| 久久精品免视看| 欧美中文字幕一区二区三区| 人人爽香蕉精品| 国产精品麻豆久久久| 欧美色男人天堂| 国产乱子轮精品视频| 亚洲视频在线观看三级| 欧美一区二区私人影院日本| 国产成人精品午夜视频免费| 亚洲线精品一区二区三区八戒| 精品国产百合女同互慰| 99久久99久久久精品齐齐| 天堂在线一区二区| 欧美激情综合五月色丁香| 欧美日韩另类一区| 懂色av一区二区三区蜜臀| 亚洲.国产.中文慕字在线| 久久午夜老司机| 欧美三级电影在线观看| 国产美女av一区二区三区| 亚洲一区二区五区| 国产视频一区在线观看| 91麻豆精品国产自产在线| av在线不卡免费看| 精品中文字幕一区二区小辣椒| 亚洲美女屁股眼交3| 精品国产a毛片| 精品视频1区2区| 成人妖精视频yjsp地址| 麻豆精品国产91久久久久久| 综合久久综合久久| 精品国产乱码久久久久久浪潮| 91成人国产精品| 国产a精品视频| 免费一区二区视频| 一区二区三区欧美日| 久久久久久久久久久久电影 | 日韩一区二区免费在线电影| 99久久精品国产麻豆演员表| 久久国产精品色婷婷| 一区二区三区高清在线| 国产欧美一区二区精品性| 51精品国自产在线| 91黄色激情网站| 不卡av在线免费观看| 国产久卡久卡久卡久卡视频精品| 舔着乳尖日韩一区| 一区二区三区免费| 成人免费一区二区三区视频 | 欧美精品一区二区三| 欧美日韩mp4| 色噜噜狠狠成人中文综合| 大美女一区二区三区| 韩国成人在线视频| 日本一不卡视频| 亚洲高清在线精品| 亚洲美女少妇撒尿| 成人av资源站| 国产精品911| 国产一区二区三区四区在线观看| 日本美女一区二区三区视频| 亚洲国产精品久久艾草纯爱 | 最新国产成人在线观看| 国产三级三级三级精品8ⅰ区| 欧美一区二区久久| 7777精品伊人久久久大香线蕉超级流畅 | 欧美一级夜夜爽| 91国产精品成人| 91视频在线观看| 99久久精品免费精品国产| 成人免费电影视频| 成人动漫中文字幕| 成人免费毛片aaaaa**| 国产成人免费视频网站| 国产乱码精品1区2区3区| 国产又黄又大久久| 国产一区二区在线视频| 精品亚洲成a人| 国内成人精品2018免费看| 久久91精品国产91久久小草 | 国产寡妇亲子伦一区二区| 国产一区二区不卡老阿姨| 国产自产2019最新不卡| 国产一区二区三区在线观看免费 | 国产精品毛片久久久久久久| 欧美国产精品劲爆| 国产精品乱码久久久久久| 国产精品麻豆一区二区| 国产精品传媒视频| 综合久久久久久| 一区二区三区产品免费精品久久75| 一色桃子久久精品亚洲| 亚洲人成在线播放网站岛国| 亚洲欧美成人一区二区三区| 亚洲精品国产视频| 亚洲一区免费视频| 日韩av中文在线观看| 蜜桃91丨九色丨蝌蚪91桃色| 久久国产三级精品| 国产精品夜夜嗨| 波多野结衣中文字幕一区| 色综合天天综合网天天看片| 欧美在线观看视频一区二区三区| 欧美日韩五月天| 日韩欧美一级二级三级久久久| 精品不卡在线视频| 国产精品网站在线观看| 亚洲视频在线一区| 偷窥少妇高潮呻吟av久久免费| 麻豆专区一区二区三区四区五区| 久久99精品国产.久久久久久| 国产精品996| 色猫猫国产区一区二在线视频| 欧美日韩国产小视频在线观看| 日韩一区二区精品在线观看| 久久在线观看免费| 一色屋精品亚洲香蕉网站| 亚洲高清中文字幕| 韩国精品久久久| 99久久精品免费看| 3d成人动漫网站| 久久久久久一级片| 亚洲欧美激情视频在线观看一区二区三区 | 久久精品日韩一区二区三区| 成人欧美一区二区三区视频网页 | 日韩欧美色综合网站| 国产三级久久久| 一级精品视频在线观看宜春院| 青青青伊人色综合久久| 国产成人高清在线| 欧美唯美清纯偷拍| 久久老女人爱爱| 樱桃国产成人精品视频| 久久国产精品区| aaa欧美日韩| 欧美一区二区三区免费视频| 欧美高清在线精品一区| 亚洲成人动漫在线观看| 国产乱色国产精品免费视频| 91国模大尺度私拍在线视频| 欧美xxxxxxxxx| 亚洲伦理在线免费看| 久久99日本精品| 一本大道久久a久久综合| 日韩欧美一级在线播放| 亚洲天堂av一区| 麻豆成人91精品二区三区| 99久久综合狠狠综合久久| 日韩欧美在线1卡| 亚洲色欲色欲www在线观看| 精品中文av资源站在线观看| 色哟哟一区二区在线观看| 精品成人一区二区三区| 亚洲一区中文在线| 国产精品系列在线播放| 欧美剧情电影在线观看完整版免费励志电影 | 日韩电影在线一区二区| 99热99精品| 26uuu亚洲综合色欧美| 亚洲一区在线电影| 粉嫩av一区二区三区| 91精品免费在线| 亚洲免费资源在线播放| 国内精品伊人久久久久av一坑| 欧美色图12p| 日韩一区日韩二区| 国产乱色国产精品免费视频| 欧美精品乱码久久久久久按摩 | 色综合天天综合在线视频| 精品国产乱码久久久久久图片| 亚洲一区二区三区自拍| 波多野结衣视频一区| 久久综合久久99| 免费日韩伦理电影| 欧美中文字幕不卡| 中文字幕一区二区三区在线播放| 黄色小说综合网站| 91麻豆精品国产91久久久久久久久| 亚洲精品写真福利| 丁香五精品蜜臀久久久久99网站| 欧美zozozo| 欧美aaaaa成人免费观看视频| 欧美视频你懂的| 亚洲免费伊人电影| 大美女一区二区三区| 久久久一区二区|