久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語(yǔ)Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Trumping the global monetary system

By ANDREW SHENG/XIAO GENG | China Daily | Updated: 2016-12-16 07:45

Trumping the global monetary system

US President-elect Donald Trump speaks at election night rally in Manhattan, New York, US, November 9, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]

It is difficult to know exactly what US president-elect Donald Trump will do when he takes office in January. But thanks to his vow to pursue tax cuts and increase infrastructure spending, financial markets expect faster growth in the United States-a perception that is boosting the dollar's exchange rate against most currencies, including the renminbi, and triggering capital flight from emerging economies.

Notwithstanding Trump's vow to impose tariffs of up to 45 percent on Chinese goods, a resurgent dollar will hurt the US' trade competitiveness, as according to the International Monetary Fund, the dollar was already about 10-20 percent overvalued in June.

And while trade is supposed to be the primary driver of exchange rates, capital flows have grown to the point that their role in guiding exchange rates is now much larger. In this context, market optimism about US growth could lead to ever-larger imbalances and possibly disrupt the international monetary system.

Besides, from 1997 to 2007, the US net investment deficit widened by only $0.3 trillion, while the net investment surpluses of China, Japan and Germany rose by $1.2 trillion, $1.1 trillion, and $0.8 trillion. The major investment-deficit players were the eurozone minus Germany, with a deficit of $2.4 trillion during that decade, and the UK, with a deficit of $0.5 trillion.

Over the next seven years, until 2014, the US' net investment position declined by $5.7 trillion, leading to a liability of 40.2 percent of GDP. Germany's net investment surplus increased by $0.8 trillion, Japan's rose by $1.2 trillion, and China's was up by $0.7 trillion. The rest of the world's net investment position strengthened by $3 trillion during this period, owing mainly to the commodity boom, which faded as China's economy slowed.

The rapid growth in the US' gross liabilities to the rest of the world is apparent in the US Treasury data on foreign holdings of US securities, which rose from $9.8 trillion in 2007 to $17.1 trillion in June 2015, of which $10.5 trillion was debt and $6.6 trillion equity. Foreign holdings of US securities were equivalent to 95 percent of the country's GDP in June 2015.

Against this background, policies that will strengthen the dollar considerably could prove highly problematic. As the dollar strengthens, the value of US holdings of foreign assets will decline in dollar terms, while the country's liabilities will continue to grow, owing to sustained fiscal and current account deficits (now around 3-4 percent of GDP annually). The result will be further deterioration of the US' net investment position, which the IMF has projected will reach minus 63 percent of GDP by 2021.

The truth is that it is unlikely that the dollar-induced imbalances will be sustainable. The other reserve-currency countries will probably continue to allow their currencies to depreciate, in order to reflate their economies, and emerging economies will probably continue to use exchange rates to cope with capital-flow volatility. If this continues, the strain on the international monetary system will only intensify.

There is something that can be done to ease the pressure. During the global economic crisis, the Fed eased global liquidity shocks by undertaking currency swaps with other major central banks. It could undertake similar swaps today, but with countries facing large capital outflows, thereby slowing the dollar's appreciation. The question is whether the US under Trump would be willing to develop currency-swap arrangements and other coordination mechanisms for emerging economies such as Russia and China.

At a time of far-reaching economic and geopolitical risks, investors view the US dollar as a safe haven. But, in time, they may find that a new Plaza Accord-the 1985 agreement to devalue the dollar and push the Japanese yen and the Deutsche mark sharply upward-will become necessary. Trump bought the Plaza Hotel three years later, but sold it in 1995. So, this time, it might be called the "Trump Tower Accord".

Andrew Sheng is distinguished fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, and Xiao Geng, president of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor at the University of Hong Kong.

 

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    日韩一级免费在线观看| 香蕉视频999| 国产美女18xxxx免费视频| 成人一级生活片| 天天干天天操天天玩| 日本中文字幕亚洲| 亚洲精品在线网址| 成人午夜激情av| 成人免费aaa| 在线观看17c| 国产三级精品三级在线| 波多野结衣家庭教师视频| 欧美一二三不卡| 五月花丁香婷婷| 日韩福利视频在线| 中文字幕无码精品亚洲35| 特级西西444| 伊人国产精品视频| 污污网站免费看| 黄色片一级视频| 波多野结衣之无限发射| 国产精品啪啪啪视频| 天堂在线精品视频| 在线观看岛国av| 亚洲无吗一区二区三区| 国产成人久久777777| 国产极品尤物在线| 精品人妻少妇一区二区| 欧美黄色免费网址| 超薄肉色丝袜足j调教99| 国产高清av片| 中文字幕精品一区二区三区在线| 国内自拍视频网| 熟女人妇 成熟妇女系列视频| 国内自拍在线观看| 精品人妻一区二区三区四区在线 | 精品视频免费在线播放| 成人av在线播放观看| 青青草原网站在线观看| 麻豆中文字幕在线观看| 日本黄色播放器| 亚洲欧美日韩不卡| 天天操夜夜操很很操| 在线成人免费av| 亚洲一区二区图片| 免费国产成人看片在线| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区五区人| 天天综合成人网| 欧美日韩视频免费在线观看| 99热都是精品| 草草视频在线免费观看| 老太脱裤让老头玩ⅹxxxx| koreanbj精品视频一区| 一本大道熟女人妻中文字幕在线| 韩国日本在线视频| 少妇黄色一级片| 思思久久精品视频| 91视频福利网| www.亚洲成人网| 日韩中文字幕在线视频观看| 久热免费在线观看| 日韩av片专区| 日韩精品第1页| 青青草视频在线免费播放| 日本一本二本在线观看| 国产福利在线免费| 国产高清精品软男同| av一区二区三区免费观看| 成熟丰满熟妇高潮xxxxx视频| 日本三区在线观看| 99国产精品久久久久久| 天堂а√在线中文在线| 亚洲午夜无码av毛片久久| 爱情岛论坛成人| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区五区人 | 国产青草视频在线观看| 日韩国产欧美亚洲| jizz欧美激情18| 欧美日韩在线免费观看视频| 日韩网站在线免费观看| 日本中文字幕高清| 中国女人做爰视频| 成人在线免费观看av| 欧美日韩一区二区三区69堂| 久久久久久久香蕉| 黄色一级二级三级| 天天干天天色天天爽| 欧美牲交a欧美牲交| www.色就是色.com| 五月丁香综合缴情六月小说| 在线免费观看视频黄| 久久www视频| 免费一级特黄录像| 日韩精品一区二区在线视频| 999精品视频在线| 国产高清不卡无码视频| 999在线免费视频| 欧美一级爱爱视频| 男女污污的视频| 青青青在线视频播放| 久久久精品高清| 少妇高潮喷水久久久久久久久久| 男女视频在线观看网站| 日本在线视频www| 91看片淫黄大片91| jizz欧美性11| 熟女少妇在线视频播放| 国产免费中文字幕| 中文字幕乱码人妻综合二区三区 | 北条麻妃视频在线| 国产一区二区三区播放| 小泽玛利亚视频在线观看| 日韩欧美不卡在线| 国产又大又长又粗又黄| 男女啪啪网站视频| 青青青国产在线观看| 手机在线视频你懂的| 91香蕉视频污版| 每日在线更新av| 大胆欧美熟妇xx| 超碰在线免费av| 五月天激情视频在线观看| 国产精品久久中文字幕| 国产成人三级视频| 欧美特级aaa| 老司机午夜av| 免费成人在线视频网站| 97超碰在线视| 一本—道久久a久久精品蜜桃| 中文字幕永久视频| 亚洲成熟丰满熟妇高潮xxxxx| 免费拍拍拍网站| 国产精品videossex国产高清| 亚欧精品在线视频| 日本在线播放一区二区| 天天操天天摸天天爽| 国产偷人视频免费| 日本免费一级视频| 91免费视频网站在线观看| 日本xxxxxxxxxx75| 草b视频在线观看| 欧美这里只有精品| 99热这里只有精品免费| 无码人妻精品一区二区三区99v| 九九九九九九九九| 性欧美在线视频| 午夜剧场在线免费观看| 日韩av卡一卡二| 伊人网在线综合| 亚洲18在线看污www麻豆| 污版视频在线观看| 国产福利在线免费| 8x8x成人免费视频| 四虎成人在线播放| 黄色a级在线观看| 日韩视频一二三| 国产av熟女一区二区三区| 人妻互换免费中文字幕| 日韩亚洲欧美视频| 男人添女人下部高潮视频在观看| 黄色一级视频在线播放| 免费欧美一级视频| 欧美精品一区二区三区免费播放| 国产精品亚洲二区在线观看| 97公开免费视频| 亚洲一区二区三区四区五区| 午夜福利123| 精品无码av无码免费专区| 国产成人永久免费视频| 日韩av综合在线观看| 粗暴91大变态调教| 不卡的av中文字幕| 波多野结衣网页| 免费在线看黄色片| www一区二区www免费| 天堂中文视频在线| 天天色天天干天天色| 欧美黄网在线观看| 草草久久久无码国产专区| 欧美亚洲日本在线观看| 亚洲一区二区在线视频观看| 日韩人妻一区二区三区蜜桃视频| 日韩一级性生活片| 少妇性l交大片| 国产又爽又黄ai换脸| 青青草精品视频在线| 国产成人手机视频| 久久久国产精华液999999 | 黄色一级片国产| 日韩在线一级片| 免费看黄色一级大片| 欧美性猛交xxxx乱大交91| 欧美做暖暖视频| 成人在线激情网| 精品国产无码在线| 高清在线观看免费| 精品久久久99| 被灌满精子的波多野结衣| www.超碰com| 香港三级日本三级a视频|