Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
    World
    Home / World / Americas

    Economist calls for trade multilateralism

    By ZHAO HUANXIN in Washington | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2023-12-11 23:45
    Share
    Share - WeChat
    This file photo shows the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo outside the headquarters building in Washington DC, US, September 4, 2018. [Photo/Agencies]

    IMF seeks efforts to avoid frittering away past gains in fragmented world

    As geoeconomic fragmentation is increasingly becoming a reality, the world needs to protect economic cooperation and the multilateral trading system to avoid “an annihilation of the gains” from open trade that could result in another Cold War, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

    Speaking at the 20th World Congress of the International Economic Association in Medellin, Colombia, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, said national security concerns are shaping economic policies worldwide, and over the past five years, threats to the free flow of capital and goods have intensified as geopolitical risks have grown.

    Those include measures such as tariffs or export restrictions, which directly target trade and investment, in addition to other behind-the-border measures that indirectly affect trade flows.

    Last year alone, around 3,000 trade-restricting measures were imposed, nearly three times the number in 2019, according to the IMF official.

    “While there are no signs of broad-based retreat from globalization, fault lines are emerging as geoeconomic fragmentation is increasingly a reality. If fragmentation deepens, we could find ourselves in a new Cold War,” she said.

    Gopinath said that attempting at “de-risking” supply chains could potentially reverse nearly three decades of peace, integration and growth that helped lift billions out of poverty.

    In its latest World Economic Outlook released in early October, the IMF predicted that global growth would fall from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024.

    “With the weakest global growth prospects in decades — and with disproportionate scarring from the pandemic and war slowing income convergence between rich and poor nations — we can little afford another Cold War,” she said.

    Marketplace integration

    Compared with the Cold War period, the degree of economic interdependence between countries now is higher, as economies have become much more integrated into the global marketplace and through complex global value chains, according to Gopinath.

    “(Share of) global trade to GDP is now 60 percent compared to 24 percent during the Cold War. This will likely raise the costs of fragmentation,” she added.

    Citing analyses by researchers in leading US institutions, including Princeton University and Columbia University, Gopinath said the trade restrictions imposed since the start of the US-China trade war in 2018 have “effectively” curbed Chinese imports.

    China’s share of US imports has fallen by almost 10 percentage points in five years: from 22 percent in 2018 to 13 percent in the first half of 2023.

    An IMF working paper on fragmentation in global trade, released in March, concluded that fragmentation-induced output losses can be “sizable”.

    Global output losses are estimated to fall between 0.3 percent and 2.3 percent in the long run depending on the fragmentation scenario, with a more severe scenario incurring up to 7 percent GDP loss, according to the research conducted by Marijn A. Bolhuis, an IMF economist, and his two colleagues.

    Gopinath said fragmentation would also inhibit the world’s efforts to address other global challenges that demand international cooperation. The breadth of those challenges — from climate change to AI — is immense.

    “The first best solution, of course, is to avoid fragmentation. But, for the time being, this may be difficult to achieve,” she said. “We must work to avoid the worst-case scenario and protect economic cooperation in a more fragmented world.”

    Among the ways out, the IMF official suggested a multilateral approach “at the very least” for areas of common interest.

    For example, a green-corridor agreement could guarantee the international flow of minerals critical for clean energy transition. Similar agreements for essential food commodities and medical supplies could ensure minimum cross-border flows in an increasingly “shock-prone world”.

    Such agreements would safeguard the global goals of averting climate change devastation, food insecurity, and pandemic-related humanitarian disasters, she said.

    huanxinzhao@chinadailyusa.com

    Most Viewed in 24 Hours
    Top
    BACK TO THE TOP
    English
    Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
    License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

    Registration Number: 130349
    FOLLOW US
    色窝窝无码一区二区三区成人网站| 免费a级毛片无码免费视频| 无码人妻一区二区三区免费视频| 最近2019中文字幕大全第二页| 亚洲 另类 无码 在线| 亚洲AV无码日韩AV无码导航| xx中文字幕乱偷avxx| 亚洲中文字幕无码爆乳av中文 | 国产品无码一区二区三区在线| 亚洲AV无码不卡在线观看下载| 久久亚洲精品成人av无码网站| 岛国无码av不卡一区二区| 超碰97国产欧美中文| 中文字幕14页影音先锋| 天堂亚洲国产中文在线| 精品无码专区亚洲| 国产a级理论片无码老男人| 少妇无码AV无码专区线| 亚洲av永久无码制服河南实里| 免费看无码特级毛片| 最近中文字幕免费大全| 日韩在线中文字幕制服丝袜| 曰韩中文字幕在线中文字幕三级有码| 欧美乱人伦中文字幕在线| AV色欲无码人妻中文字幕| 中文字幕网伦射乱中文| 人妻一区二区三区无码精品一区 | 毛片无码免费无码播放| 亚洲av无码av制服另类专区| 亚洲情XO亚洲色XO无码| 午夜福利无码不卡在线观看| 午夜亚洲AV日韩AV无码大全 | 精品无码人妻一区二区三区品| 色窝窝无码一区二区三区成人网站| 午夜不卡久久精品无码免费| 西西午夜无码大胆啪啪国模| 久久亚洲AV成人无码国产| 免费无码午夜福利片| 色欲综合久久中文字幕网| 中文字幕二区三区| 亚洲中文字幕无码久久综合网|