久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Asia-Pacific Pulse

Behind diplomatic crisis, Japan's economic slide

By Dan Steinbock | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2025-12-01 10:42
Share
Share - WeChat
This photo shows the Tokyo Tower and the city view in Tokyo, Japan, Nov 17, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

When Japan's new prime minister Sanae Takaichi took office, she pledged to focus on economic improvement. After her Taiwan comments, new missteps could prove costly to Japan, the region, even the world.

On October 21, Sanae Takaichi, the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was voted in as the 104th prime minister of Japan; the first woman selected for the nation's highest post.

Barely a month later, in her first parliamentary address, Takaichi, 64, stated that the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, implying the possibility of Japan's armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait. That sparked a diplomatic crisis as Japan's relations with China plunged to lowest in years.

Yet, this crisis has been long in coming. Takaichi needs a geopolitical spat to steer attention away from Japan's secular economic challenges.

Political slide to hard right

Instead of a continued partnership with the centrist Komeito party, Takaichi launched her coalition with the center-right Nippon Ishin party. With the end of the 26-year coalition with Komeito, the LDP took a turn to hard right.

Initially, Takaichi's cabinet enjoyed some of the highest approval ratings (65 percent -85 percent) of any Japanese government in the last two decades, with strong support among young and middle-aged respondents. The Japanese see as the administration's national priority in tackling inflation (84 percent), economic stimulus (64 percent), social security (53 percent) and security (47 percent). Bread and butter issues supersede military issues by far.

Only a minority of Japanese (17 percent) approved of Hagiuda Koichi, who had previously been involved in a slush fund scandal, being appointed as executive acting secretary general. After Abe's assassination, ties between the LDP and Unification Church came under scrutiny and Hagiuda had intimate ties with the controversial Church.

Moreover, both Takaichi and Hagiuda are members of the Nippon Kaigi, Japan's largest far-right and ultranationalist non-governmental organization. It seeks to change the postwar Tokyo Tribunal's view of Japanese history, restore the divine status of Japan's emperor and undermine gender equality. It champions official visits to Japanese war criminals' Yasukuni Shrine and denies the forced prostitution of the "comfort women" in World War II.

Nippon Kaigi has a significant presence in the Japanese parliament and six prime ministers have been its members. The effective goal of Takachi is to mainstream Nippon Kaigi and cement a deeper military partnership with the US.

Structural economic woes

Last week, Japan's cabinet approved a $135 billion stimulus package to address rising living costs and boost economic growth by strategic investments in semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

For months, Takaichi had called for "responsible proactive fiscal policy." However, it is not clear how she plans to balance fiscal prudence with still more spending. In both absolute and relative terms, Japan holds the largest debt burden globally amounting close to $10 trillion; more than double the size of its economy.

The high debt-to-GDP ratio has not caused a collapse because much of the debt is held by domestic investors and interest rates remain low. While the ratio has been decreasing since the Covid-19 pandemic, Takaichi's stimulus policies could reverse the trend.

Furthermore, years of fiscal stimulus, social welfare spending, an aging and shrinking population, coupled with stagnation compound the debt burden.

Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP (%) Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan

By increasing national debt, Takaichi's stimulus could lead to higher interest rates and a weaker yen. That would trigger inflation, which could erode the effectiveness of the stimulus, a loss of investor confidence, even capital flight, with negative global spillover effects.

The LDP's lingering contradiction

Early signs reflect rising unease in the Japanese markets. These worries are mirrored by rising Japanese government bond yields. Recently, the yield on benchmark 10-year JGBs hit 1.835 percent, the highest since summer 2008. Similarly, the yen briefly softened to 157.90 against the dollar amid fiscal fears and receding expectations for an imminent BOJ rate hike.

In the Japanese markets, these worries are mirrored by rising Japanese government bond yields. Recently, the yield on benchmark 10-year JGBs hit 1.835 percent, the highest since summer 2008. Similarly, the yen briefly softened to 157.90 against the dollar amid fiscal fears and receding expectations for an imminent BOJ rate hike.

US dollar / Japanese yen

Assuming erosion in fiscal and monetary credibility, yen depreciation is likely to foster rising prices. In that case, the effectiveness of the stimulus package could be undermined, which would compel Takaichi cabinet to demand more stimulus – which, in turn, would further penalize medium- to long-term economic and financial market stability.

This is the basic contradiction that the Abe cabinets managed to contain: the stated effort to achieve sound economic fundamentals versus the nagging need for continuous stimulus packages to revive the stagnant economy. Worse, Takaichi cabinet's starting point is more fragile, as evidenced by the weakening yen.

As the Takaichi cabinet has stressed the importance for policy coordination with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the central bank may find it challenging to raise interest rates in December, even despite inflation at 3 percent in October. The "coordination" between the two could contribute to adverse pent-up effects in the coming months.

Rising inflation is the last thing Takaichi needs. It is the greatest concern of those who elected her.

Japan's inflation rate
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications, Japan; author

Takaichi's ultraconservative profile

Born into a dual-income middle-class family, Takaichi grew of age in a very conservative home. Independent and enterprising, she studied in the university and worked in the US as a congressional fellow for Democratic congresswoman Pat Schroeder.

Upon return to Japan, she created a career and visibility as a presenter for TV Asahi starting her political career in the early 1990s. Though running as a liberal, she switched to the LDP after election.

By the early 2010s, Takaichi was championed by the LDP leader Shinzo Abe. To profile her patriotism, she often visited the war criminals' Yasukuni shrine. As a cabinet minister in 2011, she even allowed herself to be photographed with Kazunari Yamada, the leader of Japan's small neo-Nazi party.

By the mid-decade, she was seen as a promising new LDP leader. But it was only her third leadership bid that made her Japan's first female prime minister.
To Takaichi, American deterrence is vital to Japan's hard right. That's why she used her recent visit at the US Yokosuka Naval Base to vow to bring the US–Japan alliance into a "golden age."

Three scenarios

Today, Takaichi faces three major scenarios.

Measured de-escalation. In this scenario, she will seek to ease tensions through diplomatic dialogue. Japan is not just heavily reliant on Chinese tourism, seafood exports, and rare earth minerals. Beijing is Tokyo's largest trading partner. In 2024, China's share of Japan's total trade exceeded 20 percent, with 17.6 percent of Japan's exports and 22.5 percent of its imports going to or coming from China. De-escalation would help mitigate the current economic pain. This would likely be supported by the US, which advocates regional stability. Yet, de-escalation is not motivated by Takaichi's ideology, but by Japanese voters' bread-and-butter priorities.

Protracted instability. The current status quo will linger, marked by underlying tensions and occasional flare-ups, without a full resolution. China would continue its economic pressure, while Takaichi would seize the opportunity to legitimize increased defense spending and closer alignment with the US thus sparking the odds for further escalation in regional confrontation. As the spat broadens, Japan's GDP will take a prolonged hit while adverse spillover concerns surge in the markets.

Full-blown escalation. A more volatile scenario would mean a further breakdown of diplomatic ties and increased military posturing. Takaichi would take an even more decisive position on Taiwan and commit to military coordination with the US, thus crossing one redline after another. But as Ukraine and Gaza suggest, the Trump White House prefers to regionalize conflicts. Nonetheless, heightened risk of confrontation would cause Japan's GDP to plunge drastically, which would undermine the fiscal stimulus, alienate her voter constituencies, penalize business and investor confidence risking capital flight.

The next weeks are critical. China's decision to take the spat to the UN forces Takaichi on a diplomatic defense. But new missteps could accelerate both the geopolitical and economic slide.

Dr Dan Steinbock, an expert of the multipolar world, is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). 

This is an abbreviated version of the original commentary published by China-US Focus on Nov 28, 2025.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

If you have a specific expertise, or would like to share your thought about our stories, then send us your writings at opinion@chinadaily.com.cn, and comment@chinadaily.com.cn.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    久久综合久久久久| 中文字幕欧美人妻精品一区| 国产欧美高清在线| 色黄视频免费看| 免费观看成人在线视频| 男人的天堂avav| 两性午夜免费视频| 凹凸日日摸日日碰夜夜爽1| 草草草视频在线观看| 99sesese| 北条麻妃在线一区| 嫩草影院中文字幕| 91蝌蚪视频在线| 一区二区三区视频在线观看免费| 国产成人在线小视频| 亚洲天堂av一区二区三区| 熟女性饥渴一区二区三区| 日本一级黄视频| 亚洲高清视频免费| 污污网站免费看| 欧洲黄色一级视频| 日本丰满少妇xxxx| 日韩欧美视频免费在线观看| 亚洲涩涩在线观看| 九九视频精品在线观看| 日韩欧美在线播放视频| 日韩亚洲欧美视频| 青青在线视频免费观看| 波多野结衣网页| 亚洲天堂av一区二区三区| 男人添女人下面免费视频| 国产日韩成人内射视频| 男人天堂999| 中文字幕无码精品亚洲35| 久久这里只有精品23| 免费高清一区二区三区| 91九色国产ts另类人妖| 欧美h视频在线观看| 国产高清999| 在线视频观看91| 天天操天天干天天做| av在线网址导航| 波多野结衣xxxx| 999精彩视频| 天堂网在线免费观看| 色悠悠久久综合网| 一区二区三区视频在线观看免费| 欧美成人精品欧美一级乱| 欧美精品色婷婷五月综合| 日本成年人网址| 日日碰狠狠丁香久燥| 欧美两根一起进3p做受视频| 欧美日韩一区二区在线免费观看| 国产成人精品视频免费看| 男女高潮又爽又黄又无遮挡| 北条麻妃在线视频观看| 116极品美女午夜一级| 无码人妻丰满熟妇区毛片18| 黄色一级免费大片| 日韩av一卡二卡三卡| 四虎影院一区二区| 蜜桃视频一区二区在线观看| 成人午夜视频在线观看免费| www国产精品内射老熟女| 无码人妻丰满熟妇区毛片18| 亚洲77777| 国产精品99久久久久久大便| 毛片av在线播放| 男人揉女人奶房视频60分| www.超碰com| 中文字幕国产高清| 日韩精品在线视频免费观看| 男人靠女人免费视频网站| 538在线视频观看| 国产精品探花在线播放| 欧洲精品在线播放| 红桃av在线播放| 69久久久久久| 女同性恋一区二区| 欧美a v在线播放| 日韩不卡一二三| 小泽玛利亚av在线| 欧美aⅴ在线观看| av在线免费看片| 僵尸世界大战2 在线播放| www.欧美日本| 国产女主播av| 日本精品一区二区三区四区| 亚洲一区二区福利视频| 国产欧美久久久久| 国产又粗又长又大的视频| 精品日韩在线播放| 黑鬼大战白妞高潮喷白浆| 日韩av福利在线观看| 黄页网站在线观看视频| 亚洲国产日韩欧美在线观看| 日韩国产小视频| 国产一二三区av| 大西瓜av在线| 亚洲美女爱爱视频| 丁香花在线影院观看在线播放 | 妺妺窝人体色777777| 91日韩视频在线观看| 成年丰满熟妇午夜免费视频| 妓院一钑片免看黄大片| 高清无码视频直接看| 伊人影院综合在线| 日韩av新片网| 亚洲精品在线网址| 日本激情视频在线| 女人帮男人橹视频播放| 想看黄色一级片| 久久国产乱子伦免费精品| 青青青在线观看视频| 日本一二区免费| 日本wwww视频| 亚洲精品蜜桃久久久久久| 天天做天天干天天操| 日韩精品一区二区三区不卡| 男人添女荫道口女人有什么感觉| 日本不卡一区二区在线观看| 欧美a在线视频| 亚洲 欧美 综合 另类 中字| 红桃视频一区二区三区免费| 丰满少妇在线观看| 日本一区二区黄色| 欧美精品卡一卡二| 国产女人18毛片| 制服丝袜中文字幕第一页| 久久久久久三级| 北条麻妃在线观看| 精品无码国模私拍视频| 国产 国语对白 露脸| 亚洲第一成肉网| 天堂在线中文在线| www.com黄色片| 99视频在线免费| 国产二区视频在线播放| 六月婷婷在线视频| 欧美性潮喷xxxxx免费视频看| 青少年xxxxx性开放hg| 性欧美在线视频| 三上悠亚在线一区| 日韩大片一区二区| www.日本一区| 亚洲一区二区三区四区五区| 亚洲高清在线免费观看| 激情视频综合网| 99免费视频观看| 亚洲欧美另类动漫| 久久综合伊人77777麻豆最新章节| 国产裸体舞一区二区三区| 精品这里只有精品| 日韩黄色片视频| 中文字幕无码不卡免费视频| 亚洲国产精品久久久久婷蜜芽| 亚洲熟妇无码另类久久久| 欧美亚洲日本一区二区三区| 免费看日本毛片| 各处沟厕大尺度偷拍女厕嘘嘘| 熟女少妇在线视频播放| 每日在线更新av| 亚洲精品高清无码视频| 国内自拍视频一区| 羞羞的视频在线| 亚洲国产午夜精品| 国产人妻互换一区二区| 天天想你在线观看完整版电影免费| 国产精品啪啪啪视频| 日韩黄色片在线| 97国产在线播放| 成人性视频欧美一区二区三区| 国产小视频精品| 黄色三级视频在线播放| 91社在线播放| 精品国偷自产一区二区三区| 成人免费观看cn| 国产自偷自偷免费一区| 一本一道久久a久久综合蜜桃| 一级做a爱视频| 大伊香蕉精品视频在线| 国产肥臀一区二区福利视频| 精品免费国产一区二区| 九一精品久久久| 国产a级黄色大片| www.com毛片| 天天综合网久久| 日韩精品久久一区二区| 男人亚洲天堂网| 国产免费中文字幕| 日本久久久网站| 北条麻妃在线一区| 男生操女生视频在线观看| 天堂v在线视频| 131美女爱做视频| 九色porny自拍| 日本wwwcom| 亚洲欧洲日本精品| 日b视频免费观看| 婷婷丁香激情网|