久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

chinadaily.com.cn
left corner left corner
China Daily Website

Is investment-based stimulus needed?

Updated: 2012-08-15 08:07
By Lee Il Houng ( China Daily)

The Chinese government took its foot off the brake earlier in the year in response to the deteriorating external environment facing the nation's economy. It front loaded its fiscal spending, eased access to credit, and accelerated investment approvals. Local governments started announcing stimulus packages and relaxed some property measures. Against these developments, the debate continues whether China should again ratchet up investment.

The government, on the other hand, has been relatively firm in its resolve to moderate investment growth and promote consumption, keep property market measures in place, and address income inequality. Can such a position be justified in the face of the current uncertain global environment? Yes.

Let us look at China's consumption, which is at the center of the government's rebalancing efforts and often accused of being too low. At about 47 percent of GDP, consumption in China is indeed low compared with 63-68 percent in Japan and South Korea when their respective per capita GDP was around the same level as China in 2011.

However, a different comparison, taking into account each country's 20-year peak growth period, tells a different story. China's consumption spending from 1991 to 2011 rose 9.0 percent a year in real terms, well surpassing the 6.3 percent in South Korea (1966-86) and 6.9 percent in Japan (1956-76). This, by any measure, is a very impressive achievement.

The reason for the low share of consumption to GDP is because of China's own success. Led by investment, China's GDP growth during its peak growth period averaged 10.4 percent, well exceeding the 8.2 percent in Japan and 9.5 percent in South Korea. This is even more remarkable when one considers that China was able to lift its economy at this speed with a population that is 35 times larger than that of South Korea and 13 times larger than that of Japan.

Unfortunately, like everything else in life, there are side effects of this success story that may be becoming increasingly unsustainable. In fact, China's ratio of investment to GDP was high, but not excessive, until the early 2000s and broadly comparable with those of Japan and South Korea during their peak growth periods.

Acceleration of investment started in 2000 and in more recent years, it was further lifted by the need to contain the spillover from the global financial crisis. Well aware of this, efforts were geared toward rebalancing under the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-15). However, there are no easy policy solutions to the challenges facing the economy, and shifting its reliance from investment to consumption will take time.

In fact, declining consumption as a share of GDP in and of itself is not a problem. But the purpose of economic growth is ultimately to maximize social welfare, which, in turn, means making goods and services available to people, that is, consumption, to improve public quality of life. If consumption falls relative to income, it means people are expecting more consumption in the future, including after their retirement, through investment now. If that future consumption cannot be realized, then foregone consumption today will have been wasted.

Future consumption can only be guaranteed if current investment is efficiently allocated. This is best achieved by relying on market price signals. Market signals work properly only if there are no rigidities in prices and when competition is encouraged. This does not mean an absence of regulations, but rather, a regulatory system that is transparent and simple.

Opening up domestic sectors to competition would also help enhance productivity in the service sector. Indeed, resource allocation becomes increasingly challenging as the economy matures and its structure becomes more complex, a stage now reached by China. One possible measure of efficiency in resource allocation is the contribution of current and past investment (capital stock) to current GDP growth. According to this measure, we note that the marginal contribution from investment to GDP growth has been falling gradually and by 2016, based on the long-term trend, a 1 percentage point increase in investment is expected to contribute only 0.75 percentage point to GDP growth.

Another issue related to low consumption share to GDP has to do with growing income disparity. Beneath the rapid economic growth, consumption gaps between rural and urban households, and between the rich and the poor, have been widening. The consumption expenditure of the "lowest income group" (according to the household survey definition) now accounts for less than 20 percent of the "high and highest income group", down from more than 40 percent in the early 1990s.

Similarly, consumption expenditure per capita of rural households relative to those of urban households has fallen from 70 percent to a low of 50 percent in recent years. This reflects an even faster decline in income share. Since the rich tend to spend less, the growing income share of the rich has inevitably led to a fall in the consumption share of GDP.

Finally, it is expensive to maintain a high ratio of investment to income. During most of its peak growth period, China supported investment with its own savings. Households and the corporate sector each accounted for about 40 percent of national savings, and the government for the rest. The large savings by the corporate sector is attributed to a de facto financial transfer from households to corporate through the low interest rate structure that provided cheap capital. Although households also benefited from rapid economic growth, which in turn was attributable to large corporate sector investment, a larger share of the growth dividend went to the corporate sector through this channel.

Furthermore, the surge in investment after 2008 to counter the negative impact of global slowdown relied largely on monetary stimulus. The total social financing doubled from 6.8 trillion yuan ($1.07 trillion) in 2008 to 14.1 trillion yuan in 2009. While credit growth has been curtailed since then, the economy still has a liquidity overhang, albeit at a lower velocity. Liquidity growth beyond the productive capacity growth of the economy tends to inflate asset prices, which, in turn, attracts investment to reap capital gains. The property market boom during 2010-11 is a case in point.

The points above support the current government's prudent position. But that does not mean policies should be limited to fine tuning irrespective of changing circumstances. For instance, should the global environment deteriorate substantially over the course of the year, a clearly defined stimulus package through the budget could address both the concerns noted above and provide adequate defense against the negative spillover. Such a package could include policies that would continue to strengthen the social safety net, reduce social security contributions that could be supplemented by larger dividend transfer from State-owned enterprises, increase infrastructure investment in rural areas where employment effect could be larger, and beef up social housing program that could also help the property market. After all, China still has the fiscal space to do so.

The author is the senior resident representative of the IMF in China.

 
 
...
...
...
久久久无码人妻精品无码_6080YYY午夜理论片中无码_性无码专区_无码人妻品一区二区三区精99

    国内自拍视频网| 99中文字幕在线| 在线观看视频在线观看| 黄色成人在线看| 亚洲第一天堂久久| 日本wwww视频| 久久福利一区二区| 亚洲免费看av| 免费看国产曰批40分钟| 亚欧美一区二区三区| 国产熟人av一二三区| 草草草视频在线观看| 日本xxxx黄色| 亚洲熟妇国产熟妇肥婆| 男女啪啪的视频| 免费一区二区三区在线观看| 成人av一级片| 精品人妻人人做人人爽| 日韩在线一区视频| 国产视频九色蝌蚪| 国产又粗又硬又长| 潘金莲激情呻吟欲求不满视频| 国产亚洲天堂网| 黄页免费在线观看视频| 91传媒免费视频| 日韩视频在线免费播放| 亚洲精品www.| 人妻丰满熟妇av无码区app| 日韩国产欧美亚洲| 日韩精品一区二区三区四| 婷婷视频在线播放| 国产永久免费网站| 亚洲最大综合网| av动漫免费看| 欧美爱爱视频免费看| 黄色激情在线视频| 992tv快乐视频| 久久观看最新视频| www亚洲国产| 精品日韩在线播放| 丰满女人性猛交| 一级黄色片在线免费观看| 狠狠操狠狠干视频| 亚洲欧美久久久久| 久久综合伊人77777麻豆最新章节| 免费在线观看毛片网站| 国产又大又硬又粗| 男人天堂成人在线| 国产又大又硬又粗| 97公开免费视频| 91香蕉视频污版| 欧美美女一级片| 五月天婷婷在线观看视频| 午夜免费一级片| 婷婷视频在线播放| 久久男人资源站| 男女猛烈激情xx00免费视频| 成年女人18级毛片毛片免费| 国产精品专区在线| 欧美激情国产精品日韩| 国产xxxxx视频| 中文字幕在线综合| av在线网站免费观看| 国产青草视频在线观看| 男女激情无遮挡| 黑森林福利视频导航| 天天干在线影院| 老司机久久精品| 潘金莲一级淫片aaaaa免费看| 黄色a级片免费看| 丰满少妇久久久| 国产成人无码av在线播放dvd| 日日噜噜夜夜狠狠| 超碰在线免费观看97| 黄色一级片黄色| 久久久久人妻精品一区三寸| 国产三级三级看三级| 桥本有菜av在线| 人妻av中文系列| 日本肉体xxxx裸体xxx免费| 日韩人妻精品一区二区三区| 国产白丝袜美女久久久久| 在线免费视频a| 中文字幕在线乱| 色综合久久久久无码专区| xxx国产在线观看| 久久福利一区二区| 福利在线一区二区三区| 日本xxx免费| 成人一区二区三| 最近中文字幕免费mv| 久久精品.com| 香蕉视频在线网址| 俄罗斯av网站| caoporm在线视频| 成人免费观看cn| 激情图片中文字幕| 国产真人做爰毛片视频直播| 日韩精品视频一二三| 精品成在人线av无码免费看| 三级在线免费看| 免费一级淫片aaa片毛片a级| 色婷婷综合网站| 九九热只有这里有精品| 久久久精品高清| 欧美 日本 亚洲| 警花观音坐莲激情销魂小说| 久久黄色免费看| 国产免费一区二区视频| 五月天激情播播| 人妻精品无码一区二区三区| 日本xxxxx18| youjizzxxxx18| 精品国产一区三区| 99亚洲精品视频| 国产高潮免费视频| 欧美 日韩 亚洲 一区| 天天在线免费视频| 亚洲最大综合网| 欧美国产激情视频| a级免费在线观看| 欧美污在线观看 | 一本—道久久a久久精品蜜桃| 妞干网在线免费视频| 日本男女交配视频| 91欧美一区二区三区| 中文字幕视频在线免费观看| 欧美日韩不卡在线视频| 中文字幕av久久| 九九热精品国产| 国产一级特黄a大片免费| 国产午夜伦鲁鲁| 18禁裸男晨勃露j毛免费观看| 手机成人av在线| 男生操女生视频在线观看| 无码人妻精品一区二区三区66| av免费观看国产| 天堂8在线天堂资源bt| 天天爱天天做天天操| 伊人五月天婷婷| 尤蜜粉嫩av国产一区二区三区| 一本大道熟女人妻中文字幕在线| xxxx18hd亚洲hd捆绑| 国产成人在线小视频| 粉嫩av一区二区三区天美传媒 | 国产乱子夫妻xx黑人xyx真爽| 日韩xxxx视频| 中文精品无码中文字幕无码专区| 国产精品夜夜夜爽张柏芝| 国产探花在线观看视频| www.超碰97.com| 日本中文字幕二区| 亚洲国产日韩欧美在线观看| 欧美性猛交久久久乱大交小说| 欧美综合在线观看视频| 蜜臀av午夜一区二区三区| 无码精品国产一区二区三区免费| 少妇性饥渴无码a区免费| 国产午夜福利视频在线观看| 男人天堂999| 免费在线观看的毛片| youjizzxxxx18| www.夜夜爽| 人人爽人人爽av| 国产高清av片| 国产高清免费在线| 喜爱夜蒲2在线| av高清在线免费观看| 精品人妻一区二区三区四区在线 | 久久久久久久9| 日本wwwcom| 97国产精东麻豆人妻电影| 国产精品无码专区av在线播放| 男人的天堂日韩| 亚洲一级片av| 在线观看三级网站| 日韩精品一区二区三区四| a在线视频观看| 我看黄色一级片| 亚洲国产精品影视| 精品视频在线观看一区二区| 免费看又黄又无码的网站| 国产精品亚洲a| 亚洲久久中文字幕| 糖心vlog在线免费观看| 成人毛片一区二区| 亚洲无吗一区二区三区| dy888午夜| 女性女同性aⅴ免费观女性恋| 日韩大片一区二区| 加勒比海盗1在线观看免费国语版| 国产av人人夜夜澡人人爽麻豆| wwwxxx黄色片| 久久久国产精华液999999| 激情成人开心网| 六月丁香婷婷在线| 亚洲一区二区中文字幕在线观看| 91看片淫黄大片91| av观看免费在线| 日本丰满少妇黄大片在线观看|