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    Commodity prices may drop if investment cycle turns

    Updated: 2013-02-26 22:27
    By WEI TIAN ( chinadaily.com.cn)

    A downturn in China's investment cycle could push down global prices for some commodities, such as iron ore, by up to 12 percent, according to a new study by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

    The study, titled The Investment Overhang: If China's Investments Dip, Commodity Prices May Slip, found a strong correlation between movements in China's investment-to-GDP ratio and prices for commodities such as iron ore and coal.

    Under our downside scenario for China, prices for a range of commodities could decline by between 5 percent and 12 percent, averaging a fall of 9 percent, S&P said.

    S&P added that China has an outsized impact on commodity prices.

    "We've observed that trends in China's investment-to-GDP ratio and commodity price indices for the period spanning 1998-2012 have moved similarly," Chan said. "The strong correlation suggests that future movements in commodity prices could, over the near term, track the trend in China's investment share of GDP."

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