二、今年經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的總體要求、主要預期目標和宏觀經(jīng)濟政策

II. General Requirements, Major Targets and Macroeconomic Policies for This Year's Economic and Social Development

黨的十八大科學總結了過去五年的工作和黨的十六大以來的奮斗歷程和歷史性成就，確定了全面建成小康社會和全面深化改革開放的目標，對進一步推進中國特色社會主義事業(yè)作出了全面部署。

2013年是全面貫徹落實黨的十八大精神的開局之年，是實施“十二五”規(guī)劃承前啟后的關鍵一年，是為全面建成小康社會奠定堅實基礎的重要一年。我國發(fā)展仍處于可以大有作為的重要戰(zhàn)略機遇期，經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展具備很多有利條件和積極因素，也面臨不少風險和挑戰(zhàn)。國際金融危機深層次影響持續(xù)顯現(xiàn)，世界經(jīng)濟復蘇充滿不確定性、不穩(wěn)定性。我們既要看到形勢的積極方面，堅定信心，也要看到形勢的復雜性，增強憂患意識和緊迫感，兢兢業(yè)業(yè)、扎扎實實做好工作。

今年工作的總體要求是：深入學習和全面貫徹落實黨的十八大精神，高舉中國特色社會主義偉大旗幟，以鄧小平理論、“三個代表”重要思想、科學發(fā)展觀為指導，緊緊圍繞主題主線，以提高經(jīng)濟增長質量和效益為中心，深化改革開放，實施創(chuàng)新驅動戰(zhàn)略，穩(wěn)中求進，開拓創(chuàng)新，扎實開局，全面推進社會主義經(jīng)濟建設、政治建設、文化建設、社會建設、生態(tài)文明建設，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康發(fā)展和社會和諧穩(wěn)定。

今年經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的主要預期目標是：國內生產總值增長7.5%左右，發(fā)展的協(xié)調性進一步增強；居民消費價格漲幅3.5%左右；城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)900萬人以上，城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率低于4.6%；城鄉(xiāng)居民人均收入實際增長與經(jīng)濟增長同步，勞動報酬增長和勞動生產率提高同步；國際收支狀況進一步改善。這里，著重對經(jīng)濟增長和物價總水平兩個指標作些說明。

關于經(jīng)濟增長目標。這是一個綜合性指標，各方面高度關注。今年經(jīng)濟增長預期目標定為7.5%左右，主要基于兩方面考慮：一方面，要繼續(xù)抓住機遇、促進發(fā)展。這些年，我國制造業(yè)積累了較大產能，基礎設施狀況大為改善，支撐能力明顯增強，儲蓄率較高，勞動力總量仍然很大。必須優(yōu)化配置和利用生產要素，保持合理的增長速度，為增加就業(yè)、改善民生提供必要條件，為轉方式、調結構創(chuàng)造穩(wěn)定環(huán)境；必須使經(jīng)濟增長與潛在增長率相協(xié)調，與生產要素的供給能力和資源環(huán)境的承受能力相適應。另一方面，要切實按照科學發(fā)展觀的要求，引導各方面把工作重心放到加快轉變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式和調整經(jīng)濟結構上，放到提高經(jīng)濟增長的質量和效益上，推動經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。綜合權衡，今年的經(jīng)濟增長目標定為7.5%左右是必要的、適宜的，實現(xiàn)這個目標需要付出艱苦努力。

關于物價總水平。保持物價總水平基本穩(wěn)定始終是宏觀調控的重要目標。去年居民消費價格漲幅回落到2.6%，這是我們控制通貨膨脹取得的一個重要成果，也與經(jīng)濟運行整體態(tài)勢有關。今年通貨膨脹壓力仍然較大，主要是：我國土地、勞動力等要素價格，農產品和服務類價格都存在上漲壓力；主要發(fā)達國家實行寬松貨幣政策并不斷加碼，輸入性通貨膨脹壓力不容忽視；理順能源資源價格需要留出一定空間；去年價格上漲的翹尾影響約有1個百分點。把居民消費價格漲幅控制在3.5%左右，是充分考慮各方面因素后作出的選擇。要切實保障重要商品供給，搞活流通，降低物流成本，加強市場價格監(jiān)管，保持物價總水平基本穩(wěn)定。

實現(xiàn)上述目標，必須繼續(xù)實施積極的財政政策和穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策，保持政策連續(xù)性和穩(wěn)定性，增強前瞻性、針對性和靈活性。

繼續(xù)實施積極的財政政策。更好地發(fā)揮積極財政政策在穩(wěn)增長、調結構、促改革、惠民生中的作用。一是適當增加財政赤字和國債規(guī)模。今年擬安排財政赤字1.2萬億元，比去年預算增加4000億元，其中中央財政赤字8500億元，代地方發(fā)債3500億元。這主要是考慮到結構性減稅的滯后效應，今年財政收入增長不會太快，但財政剛性支出增加，特別是要增加保障改善民生支出，保持對經(jīng)濟增長和結構調整的支持力度，適當擴大財政赤字和國債規(guī)模是必要的。同時，目前我國債務負擔率相對較低，今年增加赤字后，赤字率在2%左右，總體上處于安全水平。二是結合稅制改革完善結構性減稅政策。重點是加快推進營業(yè)稅改征增值稅試點工作，完善試點辦法，適時擴大試點地區(qū)和行業(yè)范圍。三是著力優(yōu)化財政支出結構。繼續(xù)向教育、醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生、社會保障等民生領域和薄弱環(huán)節(jié)傾斜，嚴格控制行政經(jīng)費等一般性支出，勤儉辦一切事業(yè)。中央預算內投資主要投向保障性安居工程，農業(yè)、水利、城市管網(wǎng)等基礎設施，社會事業(yè)等民生工程，節(jié)能減排和生態(tài)環(huán)境等領域。四是繼續(xù)加強地方政府性債務管理。妥善處理債務償還和在建項目后續(xù)融資問題，積極推進地方政府性債務管理制度建設，合理控制地方政府性債務水平。

繼續(xù)實施穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策。把握好促進經(jīng)濟增長、穩(wěn)定物價和防范金融風險之間的平衡。一是健全宏觀審慎政策框架，發(fā)揮貨幣政策逆周期調節(jié)作用。廣義貨幣M2預期增長目標擬定為13%左右。綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具，調節(jié)市場流動性，保持貨幣信貸合理增長，適當擴大社會融資規(guī)模。完善貨幣政策傳導機制，加強金融監(jiān)管與貨幣政策的協(xié)調，不斷優(yōu)化監(jiān)管標準和監(jiān)管方式。二是促進金融資源優(yōu)化配置。引導金融機構加大對經(jīng)濟結構調整特別是“三農”、小微企業(yè)、戰(zhàn)略性新興產業(yè)等的金融支持，滿足國家重點在建續(xù)建項目資金需求。拓寬實體經(jīng)濟融資渠道，降低實體經(jīng)濟融資成本。促進資本市場穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展。三是守住不發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性和區(qū)域性金融風險底線。引導金融機構穩(wěn)健經(jīng)營，加強對局部和區(qū)域性風險以及金融機構表外業(yè)務風險的監(jiān)管，提高金融支持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的可持續(xù)性。

At its Eighteenth National Congress, the Party scientifically reviewed its work over the previous five years and the historic achievements since its Sixteenth Congress, set forth the objectives of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and deepening reform and opening up in an all-around way, and laid out an overall plan for advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

The year 2013 is the first year for fully carrying out the guiding principles of the Party's Eighteenth National Congress, a crucial year for continuing to implement the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and an important year for laying a solid foundation for finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. China remains in an important period of strategic opportunities during which much can be accomplished. There are many favorable conditions and positive factors as well as a number of risks and challenges for China's economic and social development. The profound impact of the global financial crisis persists, and the recovery of the world economy is full of uncertainty and not yet on a stable footing. We should realize that the situation is encouraging and so remain confident; but also that it is complex and so be mindful of adversity, have a keen sense of urgency, and industriously and earnestly do our work well.

The general requirements for this year's work are:

-- Thoroughly study and fully implement the guiding principles of the Eighteenth Party Congress.

-- Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

-- Follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development.

-- Take developing in a scientific way as the underlying guideline and accelerating the change of the growth model as the major task.

-- Focus on improving the quality and performance of economic growth.

-- Deepen reform and opening up.

-- Implement the strategy of making development more innovation-driven.

-- Make progress while ensuring stability.

-- Blaze new trails in a pioneering spirit.

-- Get off to a good start.

-- Comprehensively promote socialist economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress.

-- Achieve sustained, healthy economic growth and social harmony and stability.

The major targets for this year's economic and social development are:

-- Increase GDP by about 7.5%.

-- Better coordinate development.

-- Hold increases in the CPI to around 3.5%.

-- Add more than 9 million urban jobs.

-- Keep the registered urban unemployment rate at or below 4.6%.

-- Ensure that real per capita income for urban and rural residents increases in step with economic growth and that work remuneration rises in step with increases in labor productivity.

-- Further improve the balance of payments.

Here, I wish to explain our targets for economic growth and overall prices.

The target for economic growth: This is a general target that is followed closely by all. In setting this year's target for economic growth at about 7.5%, we have taken two factors into account.

On the one hand, we need to continue to seize opportunities and promote development. Over the years, the capacity of China's manufacturing industry has increased considerably and our infrastructure has improved significantly, which means they are better able to sustain development. The rate of savings has been high, and the size of the workforce has remained large. We must better allocate and employ factors of production and maintain a proper level of economic growth in order to provide necessary conditions for creating jobs and improving people's wellbeing and to create a stable environment for changing the growth model and adjusting the economic structure. We must ensure that economic growth is in accord with the potential economic growth rate, the ability to supply factors of production, and the bearing capacity of resources and the environment.

On the other hand, we should, in accordance with the Scientific Outlook on Development, guide all the people to shift the focus of their work to accelerating the change of the growth model, adjusting the economic structure and improving the quality and performance of economic growth, so as to promote sustained and healthy economic development.

In light of these considerations, we deem it necessary and appropriate to set this year's target for economic growth at about 7.5%, a goal that we will have to work hard to attain.

The target for overall prices: Maintaining basic stability of overall prices has always been an important macro-control target. Last year, the rise in the CPI dropped to 2.6%. This was an important result of our efforts to curb inflation, and it was also due to the overall economic performance. This year, China is still under considerable inflationary pressure. The main reasons are:

-- There is upward pressure on the prices of land, labor and other factors of production and the prices of farm products and services.

-- Major developed countries are increasingly carrying out easy monetary policies, and imported inflationary pressure cannot be overlooked.

-- We need to leave some room for adjusting the prices of energy and resources.

-- The carry-over effect of the CPI increase in 2012 will contribute roughly one percentage point to this year's CPI growth rate.

Taking all these factors fully into account, we have set the target for increases in the CPI at around 3.5% for this year. We should effectively ensure the supply of major commodities, boost distribution of goods, reduce logistics costs, tighten oversight over market prices, and keep overall prices basically stable.

To reach the above targets, we must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain continuity and stability of our policies, and make them more forward-looking, targeted and flexible.

We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy. We should make our proactive fiscal policy play a bigger role in ensuring steady growth, adjusting the structure, advancing reform, and benefiting the people.

First, we will increase the deficit and government debt by appropriate amounts. This year we are projecting a deficit of 1.2 trillion yuan, 400 billion more than the budgeted figure last year. This consists of a central government deficit of 850 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan in bonds to be issued on behalf of local governments. The time-lag of past structural tax cuts will make it hard for government revenue to grow fast this year, while fixed government expenditures will increase. In particular, it is necessary to increase spending to ensure and improve people's wellbeing and maintain support for economic growth and structural adjustment. Consequently, we deem it necessary to appropriately increase the deficit and government debt. It should be noted that China has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio, and the increase in the deficit this year will bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio to about 2%, which is overall at a safe level.

Second, we will improve the structural tax cut policy as we continue to reform the tax system. The focus will be on accelerating the pilot project to replace business tax with VAT, improving the way these trials are conducted and extending them to more areas and sectors in a timely manner.

Third, we will work hard to optimize the structure of government expenditures. We will continue to give priority to spending on education, medical and health care, social security and other weak areas that are important to people's wellbeing. We will strictly limit regular expenditures like administrative expenses, and practice thrift in everything we do. Investment from the central government budget will be mainly made in government-subsidized housing projects; infrastructure projects related to agriculture, water conservancy and urban utilities networks; social programs and other projects to improve people's wellbeing; and energy conservation, emissions reduction and environmental protection.

Fourth, we will continue to strengthen management of local government debt. We will properly handle debt repayment and follow-up financing for ongoing projects, put in place a system for managing local government debt and keep such debt at an appropriate level.

We will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. We will maintain a balance between boosting economic growth, keeping prices stable and guarding against financial risks.

First, we will improve the policy framework for exercising macro-control prudently and have monetary policy play the role of making counter-cyclic adjustments. The target for growth of the broad money supply (M2) is about 13%. We will employ a full range of monetary policy tools to control market liquidity, increase the money and credit supply at an appropriate pace, and expand the aggregate financing for the economy by an appropriate amount. We will improve the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, better coordinate financial oversight and monetary policy, and improve oversight standards and their implementation.

Second, we will better allocate financial resources. We will guide financial institutions to increase financial support for structural adjustments to the economy, especially for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and micro businesses, and strategic emerging industries, and satisfy funding needs for key national projects under construction or expansion. We will broaden financing channels for the real economy and reduce its financing costs. We will promote steady and healthy development of the capital market.

Third, we will resolutely guard against systemic and regional financial risks. We will guide financial institutions to operate prudently, and we will tighten oversight over financial risks in certain sectors and regions and risks related to the off-balance sheet activities of financial institutions, and thus make the financial sector's support for economic development more sustainable.