US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
    Opinion / Center

    What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

    By Danny Quah (Chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2015-03-17 16:13

    What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

    A Chinese worker assembles a new energy car on the assembly line at an auto plant in Zouping county, East China's Shandong province, Dec 16, 2014. [Photo / IC] 

    What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

    I ask here not about the New World Order, Global Power Shifts, or whether the US retains its position as global hegemony. Nor do I mean the impact on the world economy, a colossal actual thing, but still a relatively abstract concept.

    No, I mean, what does this slowdown in 2015 mean for you, looking to China as an export market; or you, in China, seeking employment as your labor market adjusts to its New Normal.

    What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

     

    In 2014 China's GDP grew 7.4 percent, its slowest rate of increase since 1990. This seems an epic change from when that economy regularly turned in double-digit growth. The effect of this slowdown on those who sell to China and on those working in China must be extreme.

    But maybe not. Why? Let's do the arithmetic.

    Suppose the year is not 2015 but 2005, exactly a decade ago, and you're an exporter, somewhere in the rest of the world, predicting China will grow, say, 12 percent over the coming 12 months. China's GDP then was $2.3 trillion at market exchange rates.

    (Since you're selling to China, you don't care about Purchasing Power Parity correction. What matters to you are nominal values at market exchange rates, i.e., in this case the size of China's footprint in the global market place at rates of exchange that see actual financial value changing hands.)

    You expect China's marketplace will increase by $274 billion (12 percent of $2.3tn). Whatever fraction of that market you sell to, that's what counts for your bottom line.

    Now, fast forward to 2015. China's growth might be as low as 7 percent these next 12 months. But, meantime China's economy has become a lot larger than it was in 2005. How much larger? The IMF's World Economic Outlook Oct 2014 forecast that for 2015 China's economy, at market exchange rates, will come in at $11.3 trillion. At this scale, growth of a mere 7 percent will increase the size of China's footprint in the global economy by $790 billion over the next 12 months.

    To put matters in perspective, this increase of $790 billion is 2.8 times the size of the increase of $274 billion 10 years ago. Thus, even at an expected growth rate a full five percentage points lower than that someone a decade ago might have optimistically forecast, China will generate economic growth in absolute magnitude almost three times larger than it did then.

    But, wait, the world today overall, not just China, has changed. A representative exporter will gauge prospects for selling to China based not just on China's scale, but also that of their own economy. Let's do the arithmetic on that.

    Previous Page 1 2 3 Next Page

    Most Viewed Today's Top News
    ...
    在线天堂中文WWW官网| 无码国产精品一区二区免费| 最近免费中文字幕中文高清| 丰满熟妇人妻Av无码区| 成人午夜亚洲精品无码网站| 天堂资源8中文最新版| 精品人妻无码专区中文字幕| 亚洲精品无码久久久久去q | 国产爆乳无码视频在线观看| 中文字幕毛片| 精品久久久无码中文字幕天天| 日韩亚洲国产中文字幕欧美| 精品一区二区无码AV| 久久国产精品无码HDAV| 手机永久无码国产AV毛片 | 亚洲AV永久青草无码精品| 天堂在线观看中文字幕| 天堂√在线中文资源网| 亚洲中文精品久久久久久不卡| 国产亚洲?V无码?V男人的天堂| 国产激情无码一区二区| 无码国内精品人妻少妇蜜桃视频| 精品亚洲AV无码一区二区| 无码人妻一区二区三区一| 亚洲av中文无码| 制服在线无码专区| 日韩人妻无码精品专区| 日韩AV片无码一区二区三区不卡| 日本中文字幕在线电影| 伊人久久无码精品中文字幕| 中文字幕无码久久人妻| 国产成人A亚洲精V品无码| 亚洲中文字幕无码久久2017| 亚洲国产综合无码一区 | 久久精品无码一区二区三区免费| 波多野42部无码喷潮在线| 精品无码一区二区三区亚洲桃色| MM1313亚洲精品无码| 亚洲综合最新无码专区| 亚洲日产无码中文字幕| 日本精品久久久中文字幕|