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2008 is forecast to be among the top 10 hottest years on record
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This year is forecast to be among the top 10 hottest years on record, Britain's weather office said Thursday, despite a strong cooling effect predicted from the tropical weather phenomenon known as La Nina.
The global surface temperature in 2008 will rise 0.67 degrees above what climate scientists call the long-term average of 57.2 degrees, the Met Office said. The average is derived by calculating the mean of surface temperatures registered globally between 1961 and 1990.
That would be enough to have it rank among the hottest years on record, although the Met Office said would be unlikely to beat the current warmest year of 1998, which was 0.94 degrees above the long-term average.
The Met Office said a powerful La Nina, the name given to the upwelling of large areas of cold water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, would probably keep 2008's temperature from breaking the global record. But it said the underlying trend of higher and higher temperatures was likely to continue.
"Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Nina will act to limit temperatures in 2008," said Chris Folland, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Center in Exeter, southwest England. "Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Nina declines."
The Met Office said the world's hottest years on record were 1995, 1997, 1998, and every year since 2000. Its global temperature records stretch back to 1850.
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(Agencies)
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盡管熱帶氣候“拉尼娜”現象會產生顯著的降溫作用，但專家預測2008年將成為有氣象記錄以來最熱的十個年份之一。
據英國氣象辦公室本周四預告，2008年全球表面溫度將超過長期平均溫度0.67度（華氏溫度）。氣象科學家所公認的地球長期平均溫度為57.2度，是1961年至1990年間各年份全球表面溫度的平均值。
這個溫度漲幅足以使2008年成為有氣象記錄以來最熱的年份之一，不過英國氣象辦公室稱，2008年不可能突破1998年的水平，1998年的全球氣溫比長期平均溫度高出0.94度，成為目前最熱的年份。
英國氣象辦公室稱，2008年之所以不會破記錄，是因為“拉尼娜”現象將對全球氣溫產生顯著影響。該現象指的是熱帶太平洋的大面積冷水上涌（從而給全球氣溫帶來的冷卻作用）。但該機構稱，全球溫度越來越高的潛在趨勢可能將繼續。
位于英格蘭西南部埃克塞特的英國氣象辦公室哈德里中心的氣象專家克里斯?福蘭德說：“‘厄爾尼諾’和‘拉尼娜’現象對于全球表面溫度具有顯著影響，而目前勢力強大的‘拉尼娜’現象將對2008年的溫度起到抑制作用。‘拉尼娜’現象一旦減弱，溫度可能會迅速回升。”
據該氣象機構介紹，有氣象記錄以來全球最熱的年份為1995年、1997年、1998年，以及2000年后的每個年份。該機構的全球溫度記錄始于1850年。
（英語點津姍姍編輯）
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