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 People wait to enter a government-run employment office in Madrid January 3, 2013. |
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The global jobless queue will stretch to more than 200 million people this year, the International Labour Organization said in its annual report on Tuesday, repeating a warning it has made at the start of each of the last six years. The UN jobs watchdog estimates unemployment will rise by 5.1 million this year to more than 202 million, and by another 3 million in 2014, following a rise of 4.2 million in 2012. If those predictions are right, global unemployment will hit a record. But the ILO has revised its jobless figures down each year as the number of those giving up the job hunt altogether swells, meaning they are no longer classed as unemployed. A Reuters analysis of previous ILO reports shows that estimates of unemployment made in each of the last six years have subsequently been cut. The original 2007 joblessness figure of 189.9 million is now put at 169.0 million - 11 percent lower. Figures for 2008-2010 have also fallen by 10-15 million from the original estimates. Most of the drop is due to people giving up looking for work, said Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, head of director of labour market analysis at the Geneva-based ILO. "These are people who, because of the seriousness of the crisis, because of long-term unemployment, have given up hope, have decided to not search for work any more, and therefore they are not counted as unemployed but more as discouraged," he said. The ILO's revised figures mean global unemployment has risen by 28 million since 2007, before the start of the financial crisis, said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder. With a further 39 million "discouraged" people withdrawing from the labour market over the same period, the crisis could be seen to have created a global jobs gap of 67 million, he said. However, despite the greater number people believed to have given up on looking for work, the ILO's latest report did not revise figures given a year ago for the total number of people in the labour market. The so-called "labour force participation rate", which measures the proportion of the working-age population who are working or looking for work, is thought to have remained steady at 64.1 percent for the past three years, showing no sign of the labour force shrinking. The figure had been above 65 percent until 2007 but fell in each of the subsequent three years. (Agencies)
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根據國際勞工組織本周二公布的年度報告，今年全球失業隊伍將擴充至2億多人，再次發出警報。該組織已經連續六年在年初發布失業警報。 聯合國就業情況監督機構估計，今年失業人數將增加510萬，總計超過2.02億，2014年將再增加300萬，2012年這一增幅為420萬。 如果這些預測應驗，全球失業率將又創新高。不過，國際勞工組織將每年的失業率都做了下調，因為那些放棄找工作的人數量一直在增加，也就是說他們不再被列為失業人口。 路透社對國際勞工組織歷年發布的報告所做的分析表明，過去六年每年估計的失業數據后來都有所下調。2007年，最初估計的失業人數為1億8990萬，現在統計的失業人數為1億6900萬，減少11%。 2008至2010年的失業人數也比最初的估算量減少了1000至1500萬。 總部位于日內瓦的國際勞工組織的勞動力市場分析部門負責人若澤?曼努埃爾?薩拉薩爾-西里納齊斯認為，失業率低于預估值的主要原因是放棄找工作的人增加了。 他說：“由于經濟危機很嚴重，加之長期失業，這些人已經對就業不抱希望，決定不再找工作，所以他們不被算在失業人口之列，而是算作放棄就業者。” 國際勞工組織總干事蓋伊?萊德稱，勞工組織修訂的數據顯示，全球失業人口自2007年以來已經增加了2800萬，2007年金融危機尚未爆發。 他說，在這期間還有3900萬“放棄就業”人員退出勞動力市場，可見這場危機導致全球崗位缺口達到了6700萬。 然而，盡管人們認為放棄找工作的人數量會進一步增加，但鑒于勞動力市場的整體規模龐大，勞工組織最新公布的報告沒有對上一年的失業數據進行修訂。 據認為“勞動力參與率”在過去三年一直維持在64.1%的水平沒變，表明勞動力隊伍沒有縮水跡象。“勞動力參與率”是衡量勞動年齡人口中就業或待業人口比例的指標。 這一數字在2007年以前一直保持在65%以上，但在隨后三年每年都有下降。 相關閱讀 （中國日報網英語點津 陳丹妮 編輯：Julie） |
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