Monetary easing may be on cards

    Updated: 2011-11-25 07:29

    By Wang Xiaotian (China Daily)

      Comments() Print Mail Large Medium  Small 分享按鈕 0

    Cut in reserve ratio viewed as indicative of a possible change in nation's policy

    BEIJING - Monetary-loosening measures by the Chinese government are imminent, and the tone of its macro policy may change during the nation's annual Central Economic Work Conference, which is scheduled to begin in December, according to analysts.

    Six rural credit cooperatives in Zhejiang province will see a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve-requirement ratio (RRR) to 16 percent, effective from Friday, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Wednesday, citing Hangzhou branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank.

    The move is being viewed by some observers as a signal of lowering the RRR for some other lenders, and indicates limited loosening of monetary policy.

    However, the Hangzhou branch of the PBOC said the reduction is merely a restoration of the RRR to a normal level among these banks, and should not be understood as a general cut.

    A year ago, the PBOC implemented a 50 basis point increase in the RRR for 20 rural cooperative banks nationwide, including six in Zhejiang, because they didn't make enough agriculture-related loans.

    "There is the possibility of a cut in the RRR in the first quarter (of 2012), and the tone of macro policy will change during the Central Economic Work Conference," said Huang Jifa, deputy head of investment banking at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, as quoted by Reuters on Thursday.

    Calls for a loosening of the monetary stance grew after the preliminary HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a main gauge of manufacturing activity, dropped to 48 in November from 51.1 in October, the lowest level since March 2009.

    On Thursday, Huang Libin, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that growth of China's industrial output in 2012 may be 1 to 2 percentage points lower than this year.

    Huang said China's annual GDP growth is expected to reach 9.2 percent this year and will continue to experience a moderate cooling in 2012.

    The weak preliminary PMI figure reinforced the view that the risk of GDP growth falling to 8 percent in the first quarter of next year has increased, said Zhang Zhiwei, Nomura Holdings Inc's chief economist for China.

    "We reiterate our view that the housing sector has reached a tipping point and should deteriorate quickly in the coming months, dragging down related sectors, particularly steel and power," Zhang said.

    Meanwhile, Chang Jian, a China economist with Barclays Bank PLC, said she sees downside risks to the previous below-consensus forecast of GDP growth of 8.4 percent for 2012. That's mainly as a result of a deterioration in the growth outlook for the euro-area and an ongoing and widespread correction in the Chinese property market.

    However, fiscal policy will play a bigger role in supporting growth, while monetary policy will likely maintain a neutral stance for the time being, said Chang.

    "We expect more 'fine-tuning' measures by the central bank in the coming months, including those targeted at small companies and exporters."

    Chang added that the possibility of a selective lowering of the RRR for some banks, or even a broader cut in the RRR before the end of this year, cannot be ruled out, because the growth of M2 - a broad measure of money supply - and total social financing are slowing quickly.

    "Even if a broader RRR cut were implemented, we think it would be used to stabilize liquidity conditions - for example, to offset a contraction due to capital outflows."

    But Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd, said the lower interest rates in the interbank market in October indicated that overall liquidity is not actually all that tight, and that the traditional year-end increase in expenditure of the nation's fiscal deposit will inject more liquidity into the system.

    "We indeed predicted that China will loosen its monetary policies, but the government will not make the change high profile," said Wang.

     

    最新高清无码专区| 人妻无码久久精品| 中文字幕日本人妻久久久免费| 亚洲一区精品无码| 亚洲AV中文无码字幕色三| 国产午夜无码精品免费看| 少妇无码AV无码一区| 人妻少妇久久中文字幕 | 亚洲中文久久精品无码| 亚洲AV无码1区2区久久| 最近2019中文字幕电影1| 精品久久久久久无码人妻蜜桃| 无码人妻久久一区二区三区| 国产品无码一区二区三区在线| 亚洲中文字幕无码久久2020| 亚洲熟妇无码八V在线播放 | 精品无码无人网站免费视频| 免费看无码特级毛片| 中文在线最新版天堂8| 欧美日本道中文高清| 日韩人妻无码精品无码中文字幕| 狠狠躁天天躁无码中文字幕图| 无码内射中文字幕岛国片| 免费A级毛片无码A∨免费| 中文字幕亚洲精品| 国内精品久久久久久中文字幕| 中文一国产一无码一日韩| 在线综合亚洲中文精品| 亚洲人成人无码网www国产| 国产精品xxxx国产喷水亚洲国产精品无码久久一区 | 无码精品人妻一区二区三区影院 | 国产亚洲精品a在线无码| 日日摸日日踫夜夜爽无码| 亚洲国产精品无码久久久蜜芽| 台湾无码AV一区二区三区| 人妻中文无码久热丝袜| 中文字幕精品无码久久久久久3D日动漫| 精品久久久久久中文字幕| 亚洲AV中文无码乱人伦在线观看| 色噜噜综合亚洲av中文无码| 中文字幕免费观看|